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US Withdraws Military Units From Saudi Arabia Amid Oil Price War

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On May 7, the US military started to withdraw four Patriot missile batteries from Saudi Arabia after two squadrons of fighter jets had earlier departed the kingdom. The US surface-to-air missile systems, along with 300 US troops that man the batteries, had been deployed in September 2019 after missiles hit Saudi oil production facilities.

The unplanned redeployment stands in stark contrast with escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. The move appears to be a first shot across the bow in another escalating conflict: The US oil-price war with traditional ally and trade-partner Saudi Arabia.

US pressure on Saudi Arabia

The redeployment of US military assets follows an earlier threat by US President Donald Trump.

Reuters reported on April 30 that Trump had given the Saudis an ultimatum in a phone call with Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to the report, Trump told MBS that if the Saudi-led OPEC bloc would not scale down oil production, the US president would be “powerless” to stop US lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw American troops from the kingdom.

While OPEC did scale down production, the conflict over oil prices had become a bilateral issue between the US and Saudi Arabia as Saudi oil continues to head for the overflowing US oil market. The announcement on May 7 came with US officials indicating a draw-down of US naval forces in the region is also under consideration.

The Saudis and the US have had a codependent relationship for many decades with the US buying oil and the Saudis buying weapons and leasing military bases. The Saudi royal family has close links with the Trump family and has invested heavily in large arms purchases which Trump has touted as his personal achievement.

The growth of the US shale gas industry, however, has changed the balance, and the potential collapse of the industry appears to be one bridge too far for the Trump administration. What was earlier considered a Saudi-Russo disagreement has proven to be a move by low-cost oil producers against high-cost producers in the US.

Economic Pearl Harbor

While the US draws down some of its military units, a Saudi fleet of oil tankers continues its journey to American ports. Oil experts fear the fleet might arrive and flood the US market just as monthly futures expire, again sending US oil prices into the negative, with dire consequences for US oil producers.

Some experts have started to call the approaching threat an “economic Pearl Harbor” as US oil could never fully recover from the shock that the dumping of massive amounts of Saudi oil at an inopportune moment could create.

Dozens of tankers filled to the brim with crude oil are already parked off the southern California coast, holding millions of barrels of oil that have no immediate buyer. The Saudi fleet is estimated to contain seven times the usual monthly intake of Saudi crude that could flood the congested US oil infrastructure just as its storage facilities are filled to the brim.

The US is currently storing oil in bunkers, tankers, and even pipelines as the system comes under increasing pressure to cut production and close wells. Closing wells is costly and dangerous as pressure changes and rising chemicals could harm or even destroy a well permanently. Because many US oil producers depend on a constantly maintained flow of steam to maintain pressure on wells, shutting these wells could mean they never reopen.

US shale starts to crumble

US oil producers are starting to feel the pain, even amid historic global production cuts, as prices remain too low for smaller operators to even service their debts. American producers have continued to extract oil at record high numbers even as demand has collapsed. Now, involuntary production cuts are appearing as the shale gas industry gasps for air.

Oil industry expert Rystad Energy is estimating that the largest shale gas fields in the US will cut hundreds of thousands of barrels in production, with closed wells accounting for 60% of that cut. The price to purchase an oil field has dropped dramatically while smaller production companies are starting to buckle under their tremendous levels of debt. As an example, California Resources Corporation, a relatively small-scale shale producer, is worth roughly $133.7 million but holds over $4 billion in debt.

While US lawmakers are approaching the impending doom symbolized by the approaching Saudi fleet, there is little they can do as Saudi Arabia owns a Port Arthur refinery where it can deliver as much crude oil as it pleases.

Saudis Use High-Tech Solutions to Allow Traditional Practices

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The Saudi kingdom is applying high-tech solutions to again allow access to its important Islamic holy sites. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Islamic Affairs is resisting calls to reopen mosques too early, but technological solutions could provide access to holy sites under strict supervision.

Self-sanitation gates

On May 7, Saudi newspaper Al Arabiya released footage of Saudi “self-sanitation gates” at the entrance of Mecca’s Grand Mosque and the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina. The gates spray anyone passing through with a sanitizer to sterilize anyone entering the holy sites.

The sanitation gates had already seen some application in several hospitals and police stations. The earlier gates could spray a single individual but the models introduced at Mecca’s holy sites would spray several people in a row as they passed through the devices. A Dubai-based manufacturer of the sanitation gates expects the systems to become a global “new normal,” similar to how metal detectors became prevalent following the 9/11 attacks in the United States.

Thermal cameras

The Grand Mosque in Mecca that hosts the Kaaba already featured thermal cameras, installed at the end of April. The cameras monitor the body temperature of anyone present in the building, allowing officials to potentially monitor large crowds.

The cameras have the capacity to scan up to 25 people at the same time and are placed at the entrances of the mosque’s courtyards. Authorities do not currently not need to use the cameras, as access to Islam’s holiest sites is still restricted due to COVID-19 measures.

In Medina, the thermal cameras have been installed at the local Prophet’s Mosque. The cameras may soon allow the reopening of the holy sites that are normally accessible day and night throughout the year.

Drones monitor streets

Outside its holy sites, Saudi Arabia is monitoring the health of its citizens from the skies. Saudi authorities have partnered with the Red Crescent to fly drones over its cities, using thermal cameras to check the body temperatures of people passing below. The drones are used to monitor shoppers at open-air markets and check workers on the way to their offices.

Drones have been used for several COVID-19-related measures around the world, from spreading information to citizens in South Africa and Morocco, to spraying disinfectant in Colombia, Chile, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and the UAE.

China even used drones to deliver medical supplies during Wuhan’s strict lockdown and used the small hovering devices to light construction to rapidly build COVID-19-dedicated hospitals.

Past and future meet

The technological solutions are offering some hope for a return to normalcy after the pandemic eases. With Saudi Arabia’s function as the host of millions of Muslims performing the once-in-a-lifetime Hajj pilgrimage, it is eager to find whatever solutions could reopen the gates of its cherished holy sites.

As the pandemic continues, it is increasingly clear that the COVID-19 crisis could forever change how we use technology to monitor public health. China’s lockdown lifts have revealed far-reaching use of modern technology to ensure citizens do not spread the virus.

Apps, thermal scanners, and digital notification and data-sharing are all crucial parts of a post-COVID-19 world. Saudi Arabia already testing several options, even before lifting restrictions, should be an indication that the presence of monitoring technology will be a part of the future, even when it comes to normally low-tech traditions such as religious observance and pilgrimages.

India Begins Mission to Repatriate Nationals From UAE With Kerala Flights

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The first repatriation flight for Indian citizens stranded in the UAE took off from Abu Dhabi bound for Kochi at 5:07 p.m. local time today, carrying 177 passengers. A second flight carrying another 177 Indian citizens, including five babies, quickly followed, headed for Kozikhode.

The two India Air Express flights were the first in what the Indian embassy and consulate is calling a “massive” repatriation operation. In addition to the 354 people flown out today, authorities are working to return home some 200,000 Indian nationals who registered their interest in repatriation, planning for special flights over the coming weeks and months. 

The elderly, pregnant women, workers “in distress,” and other passengers “stranded in difficult situations” were the first Indian nationals to board flights home from the United Arab Emirates on Thursday, the Consulate General of India said in a May 4 press release.

India’s Consul General Vipul, who led the repatriation effort, attended the airport in person to see off the first batch of returnees. 

“I am very happy that the first flight from Dubai to India is going today,” he said in a video posted on Twitter.

“Everyone is very happy that they’re going back, of course this has been a very difficult time for all of us in the pandemic situation. I am happy now that some flights for India are resuming,” Vipul said.

“We tried to accommodate everyone who was in acute distress and had been stranded for some time,” the consul general added.  

The Challenge of Choosing Passengers 

Many Indian workers have decided to return home after losing their jobs or having their hours cut due to COVID-19 closures and movement restrictions. Others, such as 42-year-old Ajith Pullanikottil, were desperate to return home due to bereavement.  

Pullanikottil, whose mother died two days ago, secured the last seat on the Dubai-Kozikhode flight after another man was removed due to outstanding immigration issues. 

“I arrived before 12 noon. An official from the consulate told me I was put on the waiting list,” the IT engineer told Gulf News. “Destiny is with me in this sad time,” a beaming Pullanikottil said after receiving his last-minute boarding pass.  

Short-listing people for the first repatriation flights was not easy, said the Indian Consulate in Dubai’s press officer, Neeraj Agrawal.

 “It has been a big challenge. Our only concern is that despite our best efforts, sometimes people with more compelling reasons might have been left out for the first flights because of the [large] number of people who reached out to us,” Agrawal added. 

Passengers were encouraged to arrive at the airport five hours prior to departure, to allow for slower processing times due to strict COVID-19 health and safety precautions. Only ticket carriers were allowed to enter the airport terminal and all received masks and gloves upon arrival. Every passenger was subject to IGM/IGG COVID-19 antibody blood tests and must quarantine for 14 days upon arrival back in Kerala. 

Read also: Expo 2020 Dubai Officially Postponed to October 2021

Trump Calls Iran War Powers Resolution an ‘Insult’

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US President Donald Trump is using his veto powers to annul a resolution that enjoyed bipartisan support. The ‘Iran War Powers Resolution,’ the informal name for resolution S.J. Res. 68, aimed to curtail presidential powers in making war with Iran. The resolution was first introduced in January after the Trump administration conducted a drone strike on Iraqi soil that killed senior Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.

The strike on the Iranian official brought Iran and the United States close to a state of war, as the influential Iranian leader’s funeral drew enormous crowds of angry mourners. The legislative side of the US’ trias politica, which delegates power to the three different branches of government, had not been informed about the controversial move, sparking the introduction of the resolution aimed at curbing presidential war powers.

‘Dangerous’ resolution vetoed

The White House released a presidential statement on May 6, calling the resolution “unnecessary and dangerous.” The statement said the resolution would “endanger the lives of American citizens and brave service members.” Written from the president’s perspective, the document underlined that peace with Iran was a reality only because of Trump’s “decisive actions and effective policies.”

While the Trump administration had initially justified the drone-strike that killed Soleimani as a defensive act to prevent an ‘imminent threat,’ the May 6 White House statement clarified there was no such threat.

Instead, the statement said the strike was carried out to “protect United States personnel, deter Iran from conducting or supporting further attacks against United States forces and interests, degrade the ability of Iran and Qods Force-backed militias to conduct attacks, and end Iran’s strategic escalation of attacks against and threats to United States interests.”

A Democratic ploy?

In public remarks, the US President called the resolution “insulting” and implied the resolution was part of a Democratic electoral move to undermine him ahead of the upcoming presidential election.

President Trump said Republicans who joined Democrats in approving the resolution had “played right into the Democrats’ hands.” The US president is eager to secure support after an embarrassing turn of events. His plan to end the COVID-19 task force met with such uproar that he reversed the plan, saying the task force was “more popular than he realized.”

The resolution had not garnered sufficient votes to avoid Trump’s veto, but on Thursday the Republican-controlled Senate will be voting on whether to override Trump’s decision and force through the act. Republican lawmakers have been cowering in fear of Trump’s fury since his election and little resistance is expected.

Fear of war

The resolution aimed to curtail what many see as reckless war-mongering by the US president, who has surrounded himself with yes-men and Republican ‘Hawks’, politicians eager for war. While Trump initially promised his supporters that he would scale down America’s conflicts in the Middle East, his first term has seen a steady escalation with Iran. 

The US has abandoned the international agreement intended to prevent Iranian nuclear ambitions and reinstated crippling sanctions on the country. The sanctions have led to severe economic damage, reducing Iran’s vital oil exports by 95% as international businesses are reluctant to trade with Iran lest it invokes the ire of the United States.

Continuing escalations

The sanctions have had a chilling effect on Iran’s efforts to import medical supplies in the face of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Though the UN, WHO, EU and China have implored the US to temporarily halt sanctions in order to save Iranian lives, the US appears eager to increase them. The American “maximum pressure campaign” aims to make life so miserable for the Iranians that they will be forced to the negotiating table on American terms.

But the sanctions have only further entrenched the two nations as Iranian politicians refuse to talk to the US as long as American hostilities, like sanctions and the encirclement of Iran with US military bases, continues.

Meanwhile, the US is trying to extend a weapons embargo on Iran, using its former status as a signatory on the Iran nuclear deal to force the embargo to continue. Iran in its place has increased tensions by launching a satellite into orbit for ‘defensive military purposes.’

With the resolution set the fail on Thursday, Iran and the US inch closer to conflict, even as both countries suffer tremendously from the COVID-19 pandemic. In what could have been a moment of shared suffering and support, the continuous posturing is likely to only further entrench mutual suspicions and dehumanization.

 

Read also: Trump Plans to Shut Down COVID-19 Task Force

Lebanese FM Summons German Ambassador Over Hezbollah Ban

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Germany’s move to outlaw all Hezbollah operations last Thursday pleased the US and Israel but was not a popular decision in Lebanon, Foreign Minister Nassiff Hitti confirmed by calling the German ambassador into the ministry for a meeting on Tuesday.

Hitti reminded Berlin’s representative in Beirut that “Hezbollah is a main political component in Lebanon which represents a wide section of the people and part of parliament.”

The German Ambassador agreed and explained that the decision to ban Hezbollah in Germany “was taken some time ago and has entered into force recently,” the foreign minister tweeted after the meeting on May 5. 

Birgelen also clarified that “the decision does not classify Hezbollah as a terrorist but rather prohibits its activities on German soil.”

In the diplomatic world, ambassadors are generally only summoned over incidents or policy changes that cause offense to, or in some way displease the host country’s government. Given Lebanon’s dire economic crisis, they are in no real position to endanger ties with Germany who, according to Ambassador Birgelen, is the country’s second biggest donor.  

In spite of the spat over the Hezbollah ban, the German ambassador had a “very fruitful exchange” with Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab today. The pair met to discuss plans to overcome Lebanon’s economic and financial challenges.

“Great first step to lay out economic and financial program and reach out to IMF. With heavy lifting ahead, most important to bring everybody on bord [sic] now,” Birgelen tweeted on May 6.

Hezbollah Chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has been less forgiving and decried the ban on Tuesday. In a televised address, the movement’s chief called it a “political decision that reflects Germany’s submission to America’s will and to pleasing Israel.” 

Concerned that other EU countries may follow Germany’s lead, Nasrallah stressed that “when we say we are not active in Germany, we are being 100 percent honest.”

The two faces of Hezbollah 

Hezbollah emerged after the Lebanese civil war and has two branches. One is legitimately engaged in Lebanese politics and includes a number of serving parliamentarians. The other is a heavily armed paramilitary outfit considered by many, including the US and Israel, to be a Shia terrorist organisation with backing from Iran that engaged in a deadly war with Israel in 2006.

Hezbollah’s reclassification in Germany hit the headlines on April 30 after a series of raids on Shia mosques in the capital Berlin and regional centers Bremen and Dortmund. Hezbollah’s armed “extremist wing” has been banned in Germany for some time but the political arm of the organization was free to operate until last Thursday. 

German authorities now argue that the party’s political wing is responsible for financing the military wing, hence the move to curtail its activities. German Interior Ministry Spokesman Steve Alter called Hezbollah a “Shiite terrorist organization,” while Interior Minister Horst Seehofer declared, “the activities of Hezbollah violate criminal law and the organization opposes the concept of international understanding.” 

Germany’s change of heart on Hezbollah means it now falls in line with the US, Israel, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, and GCC countries, who all ban the group, and who regard its political wing, at least, as a key player in Lebanese domestic politics. 

 Read also: Germany Bans Hezbollah Bowing To US, Israeli Pressure

Russian Oil Output Drops to Decade-Low as Oil Glut Eases

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Russia appears committed to the oil production cuts it negotiated with the world’s top oil producers in April. May’s production levels have fallen to 8.75 million barrels per day, closing in on the 8.5 million barrels per day to which the nation has agreed to limit itself.

Russia is the largest oil and gas producer in the world and has historically resisted cuts to its production, even when others have conceded.

Many have accused the country of benefiting from OPEC price-control measures through painful cuts without contributing, but the COVID-19-influenced oil price crash appears to be changing opinions in Moscow.

Historic cut

Russian domestic oil producers are working hard to reach the targeted production cut very soon, according to a Reuters interview with Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin. Thanks to the Russian government’s close links with its oil producers, the cut was able to materialize quickly, according to Sorokin. Russia does not have to negotiate with supermajors, like Iraq has to, in order to realize the cuts.

Russian oil production has remained fairly steady at around 10 million barrels per day since August 2009, even though its reserves in Siberia are slowly running out.

The development of new fields and the increasing prominence of natural gas as a less-polluting “transition fuel” has ensured a few spikes and dips in Russian oil production.

Negative prices in Siberia

Export prices for Russia’s Urals oil dipped into the negatives at the start of April because of a rise in shipping costs and taxes during a global supply glut. While Russian officials had claimed the industry was prepared to face low oil prices for years if necessary, the negative prices appeared to be one step too far.

For years Russia maintained that it could not close wells in its Arctic North, because wells would freeze shut, but it is now rapidly doing exactly that. Although it is much more difficult to close wells in Russia’s North, where temperatures can fall to -25 degrees Celsius in January, the Russians are finally taking the chance.

Russo-Saudi gamble

Egyptian billionaire-investor Naguib Sawiris told CNBC International that prices were logically dropping because of decreased demand during the pandemic. Sawiris did admit that he had not expected the price of oil to drop by such drastic levels. This happened, he stated, because “the Russians and Saudis decided to go head-to-head to kill the shale gas industry in America.”

Sawiris believes the Russo-Saudi gamble, although currently painful, will pay off in the long term. “By killing the competitor the oil price will rise beyond 50 or 60 dollars,” he stated, highlighting the long-term perspective of Russia and Saudia Arabia’s strategy.

“I believe within 18-months, oil will hit $100,” Sawiris confidently told a flummoxed CNBC anchor. “Banks will be reluctant to refinance a collapsed US shale gas industry,” Sawiris said.

The billionaire investor does not think that the current economic trouble means Moscow and Riyadh overplayed their hand, calling the Russo-Saidi gamble a “smart move in the long term.”

Smaller US producers resist production cut

There is increasing evidence that the strategy devised by Russia and Saudi Arabia is working: Smaller US producers are resisting cuts, often because of their debt. While US oil giant Exxonmobil has reluctantly closed some of its wells in the US Permian Basin, where much of US oil is traditionally produced, smaller producers have decided not to implement shared cuts.

Smaller US producers are affiliated through organizations such the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), where cuts would have to be negotiated on a state-by-state basis. The RRC on May 5 failed to pass a motion to reduce local oil output by 20%, instead stating it will “side with the free market.”

But it is America’s “free markets” that could prove the largest threat to its industry. As oil producers from different states refuse to be the first to cut production, each state forces the others to continue unsustainable production while small producers build ever greater debts.

US regulators are unwilling to cut production, and local producers are refusing to voluntarily contribute. The unwillingness of US shale producers to make painful cuts, such as those in Russia, could result in a victory for Russia and Saudi Arabia in the ongoing war for long-term market share.

As long as individual US producers continue to only look out for themselves, the Russo-Saudi ploy is going exactly according to plan.

 

Read also: Bump in Oil Prices After Russia Agrees to OPEC Talks

Aviation: Qatar Airways To Scale Up Services, Cut Jobs

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On Wednesday, in a case of confused messaging and curious timing, the Doha-based airline announced it would begin a “phased rebuilding” only hours after a leaked staff memo said it could no longer sustain staff numbers as COVID-19 restrictions continue to plague the airline. 

‘Substantial’ job cuts required

The leaked memo from colorful CEO Akbar Al Baker said although the company had done its best to keep flying throughout the COVID-19 crisis, the ongoing restrictions and uncertainty had been costly for Qatar Airways. 

“We have to face a new reality, where many borders are closed, rendering many of our destinations closed and aircrafts grounded as a result, with no foreseeable outlook for immediate, positive change,” Baker’s memo explained.

“The truth is, we simply cannot sustain the current staff numbers and will need to make a substantial number of jobs redundant — inclusive of Cabin Crew,” he said. 

 

Doha-based Qatar employees had already agreed to defer 50% of their April salaries to be paid at a later date, and the memo reassured staff would receive “all contractual dues and outstanding overtime payments.” The airline is also making plans to house and provide allowances for Qatar based staff that cannot return home due to ongoing COVID-19 travel suspensions. 

Qatar Airways is yet to confirm how many of its 46,684 employees may lose their jobs. A spokesman instead told Reuters: “The unparalleled impact on our industry has caused significant challenges for all airlines and we must act decisively to protect the future of our business.”

The cuts come as no surprise after Baker said back in March that the company was burning through its cash reserves as it tried to maintain services during the coronavirus pandemic. Other regional carriers, like budget airline Air Arabia, have cut staff, while long-haul competitors Etihad and Emirates implemented temporary salary cuts. 

Qatar debuts expansion plans

An official Qatar Airways press release posted to the company’s website on Wednesday said the company was also moving forward with “phased rebuilding” of its flight network, subject to COVID-19 curbs.

The airline, which is currently flying to 30 destinations, said it plans to “gradually reinstate” routes, hoping to get to 52 by the end of May and 80 by the end of June – subject to regulatory approval. 

“As we follow the indicators of the global travel market on a daily basis, we continue to focus on our mission – how we can enable mobility for our customers and provide them with seamless connectivity to their final destination,” Baker said in the official statement. 

“We have built a strong level of trust with passengers, governments, trade and airports as a reliable partner during this crisis and we intend to continue delivering on this mission as we gradually expand our network,” the CEO added. 

The company’s initial “rebuilding” will focus on London, Chicago, Dallas and Hong Kong, Madrid and Mumbai, then look to reopen routes like Manila, Amman, and Nairobi by the end of May. Qatar Airways expects to add 20 Middle East/Africa destinations and 23 European routes to the schedule by June, to coincide with the beginning of the usually busy northern hemisphere summer. 

The expansion plans and job-cuts seem at odds, and the timing of both announcements is unusual. The Doha-based flag carrier has however, reassured newly redundant staff that “Qatar Airways will do everything to bring the operations back up and offer you the ability to re-join, if possible.”

The assurance is cold-comfort for Qatar Airways staff who are losing their jobs, will join millions of other workers worldwide laid off due to the restrictions and economic turndown triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Read also: Will Structural Corruption at FIFA Impact Qatar 2022 World Cup?

Rockets Hit Baghdad Airport Amid Iraqi Crises

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On Wednesday, May 6, three Katyusha rockets were launched at Baghdad International Airport but failed to cause damage, according to the Iraqi military. The attack resembles earlier unclaimed attacks on US military bases and the US embassy in Iraq. The US blamed the earlier attacks on ‘Iran-backed militias’ and retaliated against several targets, killing Iraqi civilians, as the American military presence in Iraq is under pressure.

Rocket attacks

The three World War Two-era rockets were launched from a truck-mounted installation in Western Baghdad using a timer, according to early reporting by Reuters. The rockets flew for six kilometers over the capital before crashing down in the periphery of the airport, causing no damage and causing no casualties, raqi army officials said.

The rockets targeted the military sector of the Baghdad airport. The location of the rocket attack holds some symbolic value as Baghdad International Airport was the location where a US drone strike killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani while on a diplomatic mission in Iraq in January.

The strikes are a reminder of Iraq’s instability just as some positive news surrounding its political stand-off begins to materialize.

Iraq’s crises

On Tuesday, May 5, news broke that Iraq’s months-long political impasse over the forming of a governing coalition could soon be resolved. Iraqi lawmakers are set to approve most of prime-minister-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s cabinet.

Kadhimi is the third prime-minister-designate since prime-minister Adel Abdul Mahdi’s resignation in November 2019 and hopes to resolve the country’s political crisis with a consensus-coalition, although some important ministerial appointments are still contested.

The country is also facing an economic crisis as the crash of global oil prices has resulted in large gaps in the country’s national budget. Iraq needs oil prices around $56 per barrel, but prices remain well below that.

Iraq has struggled to cut its production in-line with a global agreement since most of its oil production is done by foreign companies with whom the country first needs to negotiate.

The economic and political crises have resulted in the ever-increasing impoverishment of Iraqi citizens, and protests have only dissipated because of the threat of COVID-19 infection.

With hopeful news in both the political crisis and oil prices moving upwards, the persistence of violence in the country could finally receive the government’s full attention.

Overstaying their welcome

One of the reasons for continued violence in the country is the presence of US military forces and their allies. Even though Iraqi parliament in January decided that the US was no longer permitted to operate on its soil, the US has ignored the democratic decision.

Iraq and the US are expected to discuss a US withdrawal in June, according to a spokesman for Major General Abdul-Karim Khala, the commander-in-chief of the Iraqi military. General Khalaf said on April 27 that the Iraqi government intends to pursue a full US withdrawal in compliance with its parliamentary decision.

A possible major geopolitical indicator that the Iraqis are moving away from reliance on the US was revealed on May 6. Chairman of the Security and Defence Committee in the Iraqi parliament, MP Mohammed Redha Al-Haida announced that Iraq is contemplating the purchase of the controversial Russian S-400 system, causing a diplomatic rift between the US and strategic allies like Turkey and India.

The parliamentarian made an apparent dig at the US calling its current Russian and American defense systems “ineffective.” Whether the move is part of tactical political posturing ahead of the draw-down discussions is unclear, but it appears that Iraq’s new cabinet has the mandate to sever ties with the US military presence in the country.

 

Read also: Breakthrough in Iraqi Politics as Kadhimi’s Cabinet Expects Approval

Facebook Shuts Down “Inauthentic” State-Backed Iranian Social Media Operation

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Facebook has taken another network of Iranian-linked profiles and Instagram accounts over their involvement in “coordinated inauthentic behavior” aimed at spreading Iranian propaganda through the social networks, Facebook announced yesterday. 

According to the May 5 report, the social media giant dismantled two internationally-focused “coordinated inauthentic behavior” networks run by Iran and Russia. It took down another four domestic, non-state campaigns targeted at audiences in the US, Georgia, Myanmar, and Mauritania. All of which, Facebook said, had been opportunistically using the COVID-19 crisis to drive traffic to their profiles and websites. 

Facebook, who also owns Instagram, said it removed “118 Pages, 389 Facebook accounts, 27 Groups, and 6 Instagram accounts,” whose MENA region targets included Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia.

Facebook linked the accounts back to the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting Corporation (IRIB), who have labeled past allegations of coordinating covert online operations as “ridiculous.”

“Although the people behind this activity attempted to conceal their identities and coordination, our investigation found links to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting Corporation,” Facebook said.

The network used a combination of real accounts and fake profiles using photos from the internet and popular local names, to disseminate information ranging from outright pro-Iranian to more harmless human-interest or viral content.

“In general, these were narratives that are aligned with Iranian geopolitical interests,” according to Facebook’s head of cybersecurity policy Nathaniel Gleicher. 

The report said inauthentic activity covered regional “topics like the civil war in Syria, the Arab Spring protests, the tensions between Libya and Turkey, criticism of Saudi involvement in the Middle East and Africa, Al Qaeda’s actions in Africa.

Africa was another focus of Iran’s nefarious social media operations with Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe targeted, alongside Bangladesh, Bosnia, the US, and the UK. 

In relation to Mauritania, Facebook’s April 2020 Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior Report said:  “We removed 11 Pages, 75 Facebook accounts, and 90 Instagram accounts. This network originated in Mauritania and focused on domestic audiences.” 

Iran Persistently involved in CIB

When it comes to the game of “covert online influence,” social media analytics firm Graphika says Iran is one of the “most persistent actors in the field.” Facebook said Iran’s proven record of fake news spreading through social media helped it uncover the new network.

In May 2019 cybersecurity company FireEye detected a network of fake Facebook and Twitter personas masquerading as American journalists sharing pro-Iranian, anti-Israel, and anti-Saudi messages during the US Midterm elections in 2018. 

A study into Facebook’s latest account take-down by Graphika found the IRIB network also tried to meddle in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, favouring the independence campaign, the 2012 Occupy Movement, and US Republican Primaries that same year. The campaigns for the most part, had minimal effect and were quickly abandoned. 

Graphika found that IRIB-linked accounts were engaged in a variety of different types of activity, some were ‘public diplomacy’ style pages sharing messages about religion and Persian culture,  others amplified state-content by sharing it alongside more innocuous posts, and another subset had geopolitical undertones. The  “covert, deceptive and ultimately inauthentic” network posted predominantly in Arabic, followed by English. 

“Between its innocuous, public-service and audience-building posts, the network shared a high volume of content that focused on geopolitical issues of direct relevance to the Iranian regime,” Graphika’s independent analysis of the accounts removed by Facebook found. 

“The network was particularly hostile toward Israel and Saudi Arabia – more so than toward the United States – across the broad sweep of time and languages that the network covered,” the report stated.

This is not the first time, and certainly will not be the last time, that a state-backed network of Iranian accounts engaged in inauthentic activity is uncovered. The discovery and dismantling of the IRIB run operation shows that social media platforms like Facebook are committed to and having some success in bringing such operations to heal. 

 

Read also: COVID-19 Prompts Iran to Re-open Drive-in Cinema

Trump Plans to Shut Down COVID-19 Task Force

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“Nobody has done the job we have done,” Donald Trump said in a May 5 press conference after reporters asked him whether he is planning to shut down the task-force that is managing the US COVID-19 epidemic. The US president claimed the country had more cases than other countries merely because the US had outperformed other countries in testing.

The US president pulled a printed chart from his pocket to show the increase in US testing relative to other countries, saying the South Korean president telephoned him to congratulate him on “our great testing.” Trump stated that the task-force has done a “phenomenal job” in producing ventilators, saying only one person in the entire country did not get a ventilator when needed.

“We are helping other countries and stockpiling, in case some tragedy like this happens again,” the president said as he indicated the country is doing so well that its ready for reopening. The president proudly showed the US had performed 7 million tests, “the quality of our tests is also the best,” the president said.

Winding down the task-force

Trump indicated his task-force had been so successful that there was no longer a need for it. “We are now helping other countries,” Trump said as he told reporters the shortage of ventilators had been solved, and now the focus would go to “safety and reopening.”

“We will have something in a different form,” the president said, indicating the task-force would soon be dissolved. The president said his vice-president Mike Pence had talked to all 50 governors via conference-call, “it was the best call we had, thus-far” he confidently stated.“They have everything they need.”

Mike Pence and the task-force DID a great job, but Trump stated he was now looking to reopen, “we will have a different group set-up for that.”

Task-force disagreements

The news first broke when the New York Times reported that task-force members had been informed of the group’s impending disbandment. Vice-president Mike Pence then confirmed the task-force would be winding down, saying the Trump administration is eyeing Memorial Day, May 25.

But, as the vice-president made his remarks, a CBS television crew was interviewing the Task-force’s top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci who said he had “heard nothing about that.”

The fact that the top expert on the task-force had not been included in the discussion to disband the task-force reveals that there are opposing ‘camps’ within the task-force. Fauci has been roundly criticized by Trump supporters for contradicting the president and the infectious disease expert has even received death threats that precipitated the need for increased Secret Service protection.

Contradicting reality

Trump’s claims that the US was outperforming other countries in testing was refuted on May 1 as Billionaire, and self-proclaimed public health expert, Bill Gates called US testing results “bogus.” In an interview with CNN, Gates said “very quickly, you can get back into exponential growth” if the US reopens too soon, saying that “in Asia the testing is ofa far higher quality than that of the United States.”

Gates indicated that high-income people in the US will have been tested while low-income people have not, because prioritization is not done based on need or risk. The billionaire pointed to South Korea as an example where testing kiosks had been successful, but indicated that the US testing capabilities were too slow and not available to anyone who might be symptomatic.

Ironically, three days before Trump revealed a printed chart showing the growth in US testing, Gates said: “These charts people show, there all all those bogus tests and the inequity all built into that funny number.” 

Gates’ criticism of US testing is backed by several experts. Nobel-prize winning economist, and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank, Paul Romer said the entire country needs to be tested every two weeks, at a cost of $100 billion a year, in order to reopen.

Insufficient testing

The US is currently conducting what Gates calls “200,000 bogus tests a day,” instead of the 20 million daily tests that are required according to experts. The Trump administration said that doing 5 million tests a day was impossible, even though Trump has promised it would be a reality “very soon.”

Increasing the amount of testing to just 5 million would mean a 25-fold increase in US testing capabilities.

Trump’s claim that US testing has meant the country is ready for “phase two” in reopening certain sectors of the economy is disputed by the US Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The institute has released a projection showing 135,000 US COVID-19 deaths through the beginning of August, with eased lock-downs as the main contributor.

While the US President continues to blame China without evidence, he appears ready to ‘move on’ from the crisis in order to limit damage to the US economy.

 

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