Tag: us

Has Saudi-Arabia Won the Oil Price War?

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Riyadh will likely celebrate in receipt of a new report by investment bank JP Morgan Chase. “Saudi Arabia will come out on top in the fight for market share as non-OPEC and U.S. production fades,” Christyan Malek, a managing director at JP Morgan Chase told Reuters. The report predicts that Saudi Arabia’s share of the oil market will be the highest since the 1980s.

It appears Saudi Arabia has increased its market share because of a decline in higher-cost oil production around the world, a development unimaginable even a year ago. The development will be much-needed positive news for most OPEC countries who have collectively seen a dramatic drop in government revenue because of a historic drop in oil prices.

Amid low oil prices, investment in the development of new fields drops and higher-cost oil production such as American shale gas or oil produced from Canadian tar-sands is no longer profitable. Because of the massive global scale of oil production, even a temporary dip in investment or bankruptcies of competitors can give low-cost producers an advantage for the foreseeable future.

Oil price war

Saudi Arabia and Russia together drove down oil prices by refusing to curb production even before the COVID-19 pandemic drove down demand to unprecedented levels. The combination of high production levels and dropping demand meant oil prices crashed to hit an absolute first: They fell to negative $40 as the expiration date for oil futures approached with no buyers for the actual crude.

While low oil prices are extremely painful for the state budgets of both Russia and Saudi Arabia, for countries where oil is produced at a much higher cost, like in the US shale gas industry, such low prices are potentially lethal.

Large-scale state-owned oil producers such as Saudi Arabia’s Aramco can dial back production without too much long-term damage, but for smaller producers that depend on a few wells or fields, closing down wells can mean buckling under debt and going bankrupt.

Saudi market share

By keeping production high while demand was dropping, Saudi Arabia directly influenced global oil prices. Media reported on the decision to continue high production levels as a price war between Russia and the Saudis continued until both countries agreed on production cuts in April.

However, both countries ultimately stood to benefit much more from a drop in production in the US than any fathomable end-game of a Russo-Saudi dispute could have realized. This begs the question if their “disagreement” was ever the real underlying motivation.

Russia and Saudi Arabia were both declining in market share as the US enjoyed its “shale gas revolution” over the last decade, with no end in sight. Although Russia likely has unexplored oil and gas reserves, the Saudi reserves have little way to go but down.

Their gamble to continue oil production and even send cheap crude to the already overflowing US oil market appears to have paid off in the long-run.

US shale gas decline

The victims of the geopolitical plays to influence oil prices will be those working in the US shale gas industry. While environmental groups will likely cheer the decline of shale gas, or “fracking,” millions of Americans are employed in the industry, working-class people who have been part of the essential workforce that has kept America running throughout the first wave of the pandemic.

Adopting a Green New Deal would more than offset these jobs with new positions in industries that support a healthy environment and provide good working conditions. However, hope for such a legislative move runs thin amid entrenched partisan tensions.

The international supermajors have already written off previously cherished gas assets in a sign of the time, yet the fate of Chesapeake Energy, one of the US shale gas pioneers, could signal what World Oil called “the end of an era.”

Because of the absence of available credit that saved many smaller oil firms during the last oil crash in 2015-2016, many smaller companies are now facing bankruptcies. The continued uncertainty over the future value of oil assets makes mergers and acquisition a risky game.

Between January and May, 18 oil and gas firms filed for bankruptcy protection in North America with more expected as “lower for longer” becomes the expectation.

The Saudi-led OPEC bloc has now promised to extend production cuts with an additional one-month voluntary cut, which is enough to prevent a new crash in oil prices, but likely not enough to help US producers.

Crucial US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue Begins, Online

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Former intelligence chief Mustafa Kadhemi’s elevation to the role of prime minister seems to have helped restore US confidence in Iraq and laid the ground for the two to re-engage in strategic dialogue starting on Thursday. The talks were originally planned as a high-level meeting for April, but the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed them online.  

“With new threats on the horizon, including the global coronavirus pandemic, collapsed oil prices, and a large budget deficit, it’s imperative that the United States and Iraq meet as strategic partners to plan a way forward for the mutual benefit of each of our two nations,” Pompeo said in a June 10 media briefing. 

Pompeo warmly welcomed Kadhemi’s April ascension to the premiership, and Iraqi sources say the White House has invited the new leader to visit this year. 

“There was a lack of confidence in the relationship with the previous government, and we’re not there anymore,” an anonymous official told the French Press Agency (AFP).

Relations between Baghdad and Washington cooled after a US rocket strike on a convoy leaving Baghdad Airport killed Iranian Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and a number of Iraqi militia leaders in January. There have also been a number of rocket attacks against US targets in Iraq this year, carried out mainly by Iran-backed Iraqi militia groups, placing further stress on the bilateral relationship.   

Dialogue despite tensions

Months of political uncertainty also dogged ties, but former Iraqi Foreign Minister Ali Alhakim said that in spite of those tensions, “the dialogue between us and the United States has never stopped.” 

“This dialogue is appropriate, and it’s timely as well. Our relationship went into sort of a quiet mood and we want to reinvigorate it,” said Alhakim, who served as foreign minister from 2018 until Khadhemi replaced him with Fuad Hussein in April.  

On June 9, the ex-foreign minister and career diplomat told the Atlantic Council talks will likely center on how to move forward with the 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) that underpins the two countries’ bilateral relationship. 

“Where do we go from here? Do we continue on the same path? This will be answered in the first ten or fifteen minutes, just to figure out where the two sides are,” Alhakim predicted.  

An unnamed US official who spoke to AFP echoed Alhakim’s thoughts, telling them, “whatever comes out of the dialogue is going to set the future of our strategic relationship.” 

“Am I still going to fly surveillance drones or not? Do you still want our intelligence?” are the sort of questions the US source believes will be on the table.  

Relationship deeper than security cooperation

US Ambassador to Iraq Matthew Tueller stressed in a recent video that the US-Iraq relationship goes much deeper than security assistance. He said the talks will also center on politics, economics, culture, and energy — as well as US support for Iraqi troops fighting ISIS. 

According to the US Embassy in Iraq, the US has been an active supporter of Iraq’s fight against COVID-19. The US has donated $44 million worth of COVID-19 aid through USAID, and is also funding UN Migration’s (IOM) virus surveillance program and outreach work with vulnerable communities across Iraq.

“Security is important, but so is finance and health. These are part of the SFA, and this is where the US and other countries are actually helping us, along with the International Monetary Fund,” Alhakim said. “We need help with humanitarian issues. These are not really under the radar; they are visible, and this money is assisting Iraqis.”  

Domestically, the challenges facing Iraq have escalated dramatically in 2020, driven by COVID-19, a drop in global oil prices, and the political deadlock that Wednesday’s vote ended. Record-low oil revenues have hit the economy hard, while the country’s ill-equipped health system is struggling to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak and the remnants of ISIS remain a top security threat.

The US, backed by its coalition partners, will be gunning for US troops to remain, a proposal the Iraqis are likely to accept in a bid to sure-up state security for Kadhemi’s fledgling government.  

Another hot topic will be Iraq’s besieged economy. The country’s out-dated energy grid, for one, could do with US infrastructure funding, but given the long-term nature of weaning Iraq off its Iranian-energy dependency, securing a longer waiver protecting Iraq from US sanctions will likely be a priority for Iraqi negotiators. 

Read also: Iraqi PM Kadhimi Promises Transparency, Release of Detained Protestors 

 

Daily Nile Dam Negotiations Aim to Resolve Tensions

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For almost a decade Ethiopia has been working on the construction of the largest dam in Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Construction has progressed to the point where Ethiopian authorities are preparing to start filling the dam’s giant reservoir, sparking fears of possible water shortages in Sudan and Egypt.

On Monday, June 8, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that Ethiopia is ready to proceed with a partial filling of the reservoir. “The dam is a project that will pull Ethiopia out of poverty,” Ahmed told lawmakers. “Ethiopia wants to develop together with others, not hurt the interests of other countries.”

However, the opinion was not shared in Egypt, a country that relies heavily on water from the Nile river, downstream from the GERD. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi released a statement on Tuesday, June 9, accusing Ethiopia of “a new tactic of stalling and shirking responsibility” and accused the country of stalling negotiations in order to start filling the reservoir.

Washington deal

“It is a hugely important and sensitive issue,” said Mirette Mabrouk, director of the Middle East Institute’s Egypt Studies program. “It’s a matter of life and death for a lot of people, certainly for more than a million Egyptians.”

The escalation of the war of words between Egyptian and Ethiopian leadership comes after Sudan and Egypt held separate meetings on February 24 where the United States, an observer in the negotiations, presented what is now called “the Washington deal.”

The United States Treasury department released a statement saying the US “believes that the work completed over the last four months has resulted in an agreement that addresses all issues in a balanced and equitable manner, taking into account the interests of the three countries,” urging Ethiopia not to commence the filling of the reservoir “without an agreement.”

Tuesday’s meeting

On Tuesday June 9, Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok got Egypt and Ethiopia back to the negotiating table, joined by EU, US, and South African observers. The meeting resulted in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan agreeing to commit to daily meetings in order to ease tensions.

Ministers from the three countries spoke for five hours as Ethiopia claims sovereignty over the Nile water on its territory, while Egypt accuses Ethiopia of violating an agreement signed at the start of construction.

Ethiopia now claims the United States is overstepping its role as a mediating observer by presenting a deal to Ethiopia that was already signed by Egypt, a strategic ally of the US in the region. Sudan appears to accept much of the US proposal, which Ethiopia, in turn, objects to.

Differing opinions

Sudan and Egypt both want a “comprehensive agreement” before Ethiopian authorities start filling the reservoir, as they fear doing so would cause droughts in an already hot and dry year.

Sudan prefers the “Washington deal”, but Ethiopia rejects it because it did not take part in the February negotiations. Ethiopia also disputes the deal’s characterization that negotiations on guidelines and rules for filling the reservoir have been resolved.

For the foreseeable future, Sudanese, Egyptian and Ethiopian negotiators will now hold daily talks, with the exception of Fridays and Sundays, in order to defuse tensions where Ethiopia feels increasingly backed into a corner by powerful foreign actors aligned with Egypt. Sudan and Egypt, meanwhile, fear that the filling of the giant dam’s reservoir could worsen an already poor year for local agriculture and worsen the chance of famine and droughts in the region.

Russia, China, EU Tell US to Pull Back from Iran Arms Embargo Threats

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Russia and China have echoed the European Union’s sentiments, reiterating that the US is in no position to use the Iran nuclear deal as a platform for imposing a permanent weapons embargo on Iran. In a May 27 letter, to the UN Security Council, and  U.N. chief Antonio Guterres made public today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized the US position as “ridiculous and irresponsible.” 

“This is absolutely unacceptable and serves only to recall the famous English proverb about having one’s cake and eating it,” Lavrov wrote.  

Last week, US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft said a draft resolution would soon be introduced to the Security Council calling for a permanent arms embargo on Iran, as it has violated the conditions of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Despite no longer being part of the accord, Craft and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have both intimated that reintroducing UN-backed weapons sanctions, under the basis of the JCPOA agreement, is currently a top US priority.  

Top Chinese and European Union diplomats have also questioned the Trump administration’s call for a snapback to pre-JCPOA sanctions. All permanent Security Council members — Russia, China, the US, France and UK — have a right to veto resolutions. 

“The United States, no longer a participant to the JCPOA (nuclear deal) after walking away from it, has no right to demand the Security Council invoke a snapback,” Wang told the Security Council and Guterres in a letter on June 7. 

On June 9, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell Frontelles agreed, stating, “the United States has withdrawn from the JCPOA, and now they cannot claim that they are still part of the JCPOA in order to deal with this issue from the JCPOA agreement.”  

“They withdraw. It’s clear. They withdraw,” he stressed. 

The US unilaterally pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) accord

between the U.S., Britain, Germany, France, China, Russia and Iran in 2018. Under the 2015 plan Iran promised to limit sensitive nuclear activities, in return for an easing of sanctions. However the agreement began to unravel when Trump pulled out of the deal under his “maximum pressure” campaign, and re-imposed stringent US economic sanctions. 

Under the JCPOA, which is enshrined in a UN resolution, if Iran violates the terms of the accord, sanctions, including an arms embargo, can be reinstated. Iran has violated the terms of the nuclear deal since the US pulled out, but Lavrov, Wang, and Borrell argue that the US has waived its rights to push for renewed sanctions since pulling out of the accord.  

“A party which disowns or does not fulfil its own obligations cannot be recognized as retaining the rights which it claims to derive from the relationship,” Lavrov explained, invoking 1971 International Court of Justice precedent. 

Read also: Iran to Execute Spy Who Gave Soleimani’s Location to US

 

 

Iran to Execute Spy Who Gave Soleimani’s Location to US

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On Tuesday, the Iranian judiciary announced that alleged CIA and Mossad spy Mahmoud Mousavi-Majd has been sentenced to death for passing information to the US and Israel about the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani. 

Soleimani was killed when a US drone fired missiles at a convoy of Quds Force and Iraninian militias leaving Baghdad International Airport on January 3. Soleimani’s death heightened US-Iran tensions, and a retaliatory airstrike by Iran on March 11 killed two Americans and one British soldier. 

Iranian judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili told Iranian television the man they believe responsible for passing information to the US about Soleimani’s whereabouts, Mahmoud Mousavi-Majd, “will be executed soon.”  

“Mahmoud Mousavi-Majd, one of the spies for the CIA and the Mossad, has been sentenced to death … He had shared information about the whereabouts of martyr Soleimani with our enemies,” Esmaili told the June 9 press conference.  

“He passed on security information to the Israeli and American intelligence agencies about Iran’s armed forces, particularly the [Revolutionary] Guards.” 

A later statement from the Iranian judiciary clarified that, while Iran believes Mousavi-Majd passed information to its enemies about Soleimani, that information was not used to carry out the so-called “terrorist act of the U.S. government” that killed the commander at Baghdad International Airport in January.  

“All the legal proceedings in the case of this spy … had been carried out long before the martyrdom of Soleimani,” the judiciary explained.  

Mousavi-Majd was, according to Iran, arrested in October 2018. A revolutionary court originally handed him a death sentence by a revolutionary court, and upon appeal Iran’s supreme court upheld the decision. 

Read also: Iran Releases US Prisoner in Long-Awaited Swap Deal

A House Divided, COVID-19, and Protests Exacerbate US Polarization

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The United States seems more polarized today than it has for decades. The COVID-19 pandemic and brutal killing of George Floyd at the hands of police officers and its aftermath are exacerbating existing tensions between liberals and conservatives.

The two sides seem to have a completely different notion of what America should look like and whether or not systemic prejudices are oppressing millions of Americans.

A House Divided

In June 1858, Abraham Lincoln, then a US Senate hopeful, delivered a powerful speech before an audience of Republican delegates (who possessed political views now associated with America’s Democratic Party). The speech addressed a fundamental contradiction in the United States.

While the nascent republic took pride in its war of independence from England and championing the ideals of freedom in its famous Declaration of Independence, it continued to enslave millions of people. Voices denouncing slavery, including that of Lincoln, were rising. It was only a matter of time before those who wanted to abolish slavery and those who were ready to die to preserve it would come to a lethal confrontation.

“A house divided against itself cannot stand,” said Lincoln. “I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free.”

Lincoln would be forever remembered as one of the greatest presidents (if not the greatest) of the United States. He was the man credited with the emancipation of approximately four million slaves. He also succeeded in preserving the country though leading Union forces through a bloody civil war. Slave states fought ferociously for secession because their economy, based largely on growing cotton, depended on slavery.

Today, it is astonishingly striking how relevant Lincoln’s speech is, as well as the context in which it was delivered.

The legacy of slavery continues to oppress Black Americans

The killing of George Floyd is a manifestation of the struggles people of African descent continue to face in America. While slavery was abolished in the second half of the 19th century, complete equality between the descendants of those slaves and others who have joined America’s Black community, and their white counterparts, has not yet been achieved.

The gap between white and Black Americans is wide in terms of wealth, income, and access to quality education and healthcare. An article published by CNN on June 3 reported the median net worth of the US’ white households is $171,000, almost 10 times that of Black households ($17,600).

While African Americans fall behind in those metrics, they are much more likely to be incarcerated or die during an encounter with the police.

African Americans, according to Pew Research Center, represented 33% of the country’s adult prison population in 2018 while they make up only 12% of the general US population. In comparison, whites accounted for 30% of adult inmates while they represent the majority racial group within the US population, at 63%.

Fact and friction: Questioning white guilt and systemic bias 

The country is incredibly polarized around key issues such as race inequality, treatment of and opportunities for minority groups, immigration, and response to crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Part of the divide is a friction over the existence of a problem—systemic racial oppression—in the first place, its scope, and the best way to address it.

Many liberals and progressives see that racial inequality is the legacy of discriminatory policies that, although many have been abolished, continue to ensure people of color are excluded from opportunities that would help them escape poverty and achieve a quality of life similar to that of their white counterparts.

They recognize that white privilege exists, and that people who do not face this type of discrimination should show sympathy with those who get pulled over by the police, roughed up even if they committed no crime, or even shot dead because of the color of their skin and an engrained assumption that they might be armed or dangerous.

Social conservatives on the other hand, in majority white Republicans and mostly concentrated in southern and midwest states as well as rural areas, often believe the system does not discriminate against Black people.

Blaming those who suffer from prejudice

They think white Americans are suffering from “white guilt,” that feeling of shame for all the pain and crimes that people of European descent inflicted on black slaves, their descendants, and other people of color in the past—and the ongoing legacy of such actions, which continues to create difficulties for Americans of color today. Many social conservatives feel this white guilt is unjustified, while liberals may claim it is justified but unproductive.

On the extreme side of the conservative spectrum are those who genuinely believe that white people are under attack in America and that liberals want to “replace” them with other racial groups. They claim a racial superiority akin to that assumed by the Nazis and American slave masters.

Though many conservatives might not say this openly so as not to be labeled “racist,” they would blame Black Americans for their low economic status by insinuating they have a propensity for being “lazy.”

In 2014, former House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan created controversy with his remarks on “inner city” poverty, which he attributed to a lack of appreciation for the “value of work.”

“Inner city” is a term used to designate the overcrowded, poor neighborhoods in a large city. As Black people and other racial minorities largely inhabit these areas, many came to the conclusion that Ryan was making a racist statement.

Disproportionate pandemic consequences

While some politicians, media, and health professionals repeatedly say that COVID-19 does not discriminate—a statement supported by the fact that people from all ages and walks of life, including rich people and statesmen, contracted the virus—it has been widely reported Black people and other minorities have been hit the hardest in majority-white countries such as the US.

Media reports and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published in May confirmed that “the new coronavirus is disproportionately striking minority populations — particularly urban blacks and Navajo Indians living on their reservation.”

“Blacks make up 33% of COVID-19 hospitalizations” in New York State while they only account for 18% of the population, reported U.S. News & World Report.

Seventy percent of COVID-19 deaths in Louisiana occurred in the Black community, which only makes up one-third of the state’s population.

In Illinois and Michigan Black people respectively make up 15% and 14% of the population, yet 43% and 40% of those who died in these states were African Americans.

While academic experts pointed to social and economic disparities as a reason why members of certain racial groups are more vulnerable to the disease, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar chose to blame individuals’ unhealthy lifestyles.

Diverting responsibility

U.S. News & World Report cited a recent study published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine which listed a number of factors that can contribute to a higher risk of contracting the virus, including “living in crowded, multigenerational homes, working in a service industry in a job that cannot be done remotely and needing to use public transportation to get to work.”

For Azar, the focus was mainly on the fact that Black people are more likely to suffer from pre-existing health conditions that make them more vulnerable to the virus, like asthma, heart disease, and cancer. When taken alone, this reality does not give the full picture on why African Americans are bearing the brunt of the country’s COVID-19 infections. Azar’s choice of words could not be more controversial.

“Unfortunately the American population is very diverse … It is a population with significant unhealthy comorbidities that do make many individuals in our communities, in particular African American, minority communities, particularly at risk,” said Azar during an interview with CNN.

It is not clear why the diversity of the US society, something which has been hailed as a positive example, is something to be described as “unfortunate,” unless Azar wished the US was more racially monolithic, meaning more white.

Again, according to Azar and people who follow such a line of logic, the system is not to blame for the sufferings of the Black community in the US. As a result, they would continue to oppose any proposals of public policies that seek to address the social and economic grievances of people of color in America.

While the death of George Floyd and ensuing mass protests imposed for the first time accountability for police officers in their crimes against Black people, the route to achieving economic and social equality in the US is still a long and bumpy road.

 

Read also: US Burns With Anti-Racism Rage One Week After George Floyd’s Murder

Iran Releases US Prisoner in Long-Awaited Swap Deal

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Michael White walked free from prison on Thursday , June 4, as a “humanitarian gesture” by Iran, and promptly boarded a flight to Zurich where he met with Brian Hook, the US diplomat who negotiated his freedom. White and Hook then boarded an American government plane and touched down in the United States on Friday. 

The United States Special envoy to Iran, Hook, lauded the deal as a win-win at a press conference at the mid-way point of White’s journey home.  

“We were simultaneously able to secure the release of an American Navy veteran from an Iranian prison and accomplish our law enforcement objectives,” Hook told Fox News Channel from the tarmac in Zurich.  

White said he was relieved to be released and recovering “pretty decently” from his time in Iranian jail, telling Fox News Channel, “I feel all right, and happy to be back.” 

“I’m improving. I did contract coronavirus in the Mashhad central prison prior to going out on furlough.”

‘I’m getting a lot better as a result of the Swiss Embassy and all the efforts of the Trump administration,” a Hawaiian-shirt clad White told reporters. 

For its part, the Swiss Embassy which represents the US in Iran, welcomed the “humanitarian gesture” behind the swap deal, adding it “stands ready” to assist in the future. 

White also thanked President Donald Trump “for his efforts both diplomatically and otherwise, making America great again.” 

The successful deal is a boost for the embattled US President and he was quick to tweet about White’s return. 

“So great to have Michael home. Just arrived. Very exciting. Thank you to Iran,” Trump fired off.

Taheri Release

 Back in the United States, a judge in Atlanta, Florida agreed to a deal which enabled dual US-Iranian citizen Matteo Taheri to be sentenced to time served for sanction and banking violations.  

“There are numerous foreign policy interests that are furthered by this particular sentence,” U.S. District Judge Leigh Martin May said.

Taheri pleaded guilty to the charges of violating US sanctions, but is not considered a security threat and is now free to remain in America or travel to Iran.

“The United States government and the government of Iran have been negotiating the release of a U.S. citizen held in Iranian custody. This case, and more specifically the sentence recommendation, is directly related to these negotiations,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Tracia King explained during Taheri’s June 4 hearing.

Taheri’s legal team said he was planning to take a long-awaited trip to Iran and visit his family, but would ultimately return to the United States. 

Iran’s Reaction 

Iran welcomed the deal, but used the breakthrough to again extend calls for the release of all Iranian prisoners in the United States. 

“Pleased that Dr. Majid Taheri and Mr. White will soon be joining their families,” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted on June 4. “Prof. Sirous Asgari was happily reunited with his family on Weds.”

“This can happen for all prisoners,” Zarif added. 

“No need for cherry picking. Iranian hostages held in—and on behalf of—the US should come home.”

The deal also comes just days after Iranian scientist Sirous Asgari, referred to in Zarif’s tweet, was deported from the US back to Iran on June 3. State Department and Iranian officials said his release was not part of the deal, clarifying that his case was a separate matter.

The Iranian government has previously declared they are prepared for a full prisoner exchange but are waiting on a US response. 

The successful swap-deal is a rare bright-spot for Iran-US relations and a win for quiet diplomacy. The relationship has been tense since Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal, and re-imposed sanctions in 2018. It was further inflamed this year by the US rocket-strike death of Iranian Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani in January, and naval tensions in the Arabian Gulf. 

Read also: Iranian FM: US Deports Jailed Iranian Professor 

 

US Signals Potential Renewed Involvement in Libya

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The United States is considering the deployment of its Security Force Assistance Brigades to Tunisia in response to Russian activity in Libya.

The US has nominally stayed out of the conflict except for some support to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) targeting local forces it considers part of ISIS. The US military appears to be concerned over what it calls “Russian involvement” in the conflict that has seen Egypt, France, Turkey, and the UAE all support factions in the messy civil war.

Increasingly sophisticated weapons

Actors in the Libyan conflict are using increasingly sophisticated weaponry, despite a UN arms embargo that all foreign powers involved in the devastating proxy war nominally support. The recent involvement by Turkish planes and drones turned the tide of the conflict in the Tripoli government’s advantage, which Haftar’s forces are now countering with 14 Russian fighter jets.

The US has published grainy photos of jets taking off in Russia and landing in Libya’s Al Jufra Airbase, while the Libyan National Army (LNA) was less covert, proudly publishing photos of its new jets on twitter.

The inclusion of Russian MiG-29 and Su-24 will likely re-balance the conflict and perhaps draw it out even further, but a new factor has emerged as the US is considering renewed involvement.

Security Force Assistance Brigades

The US Security Force Assistance Brigades are a recent innovation of the US military. The 800-strong brigades first saw deployment in 2018 and consist of a variety of troops that train, support, and fight alongside another nation’s military. Whether the deployment in Tunisia signals increased involvement by Libya’s Western neighbor remains to be seen.

The “S-Fab” troops consist of commissioned and non-commissioned officers that have received additional training at the Military Advisor Training Academy in Fort Benning, Georgia. The s-fab’s are intended to relieve “advisory duties” from the infantry units that have increasingly performed these tasks in Iraq and Afghanistan. S-fabs were deployed in Senegal in 2020 and could soon make their first appearance in North Africa.

Entangled alliances

If the US indeed plans to counter Russian involvement, it would pit itself against its long-standing allies in Egypt, France, and the Emirates. Because of the intertwined alliances in Libya, it could mean that US forces would face incoming French missiles or fight forces supported by its key strategic partners in the Middle East.

The addition of Russian fighter jets is likely to prompt increased aerial support from Turkey. Turkish C-130 planes and drones are already active in the region but Ankara is likely to increase the presence of Turkish F-16 jet-fighters, which are from the same generation as the Russian MiG-29s.

With Turkey announcing that it will soon start to extract oil from Libyan waters, the stakes have never been higher. Libya already featured significant surface-to-air fighting with anti-aircraft batteries fighting drones, but the conflict could soon see it’s first air-to-air combat. This would prove a major escalation and further evidence that the Libyan arms embargo is an abject failure.

Iranian FM: US Deports Jailed Iranian Professor

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Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif announced today that the US has deported Iranian Professor Sirous Asgari, recently acquitted of stealing trade secrets, back to Iran. 

The 59-year-old scientist is now back in Iran with his family, according to an Instagram post by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.  

“Hello friends. Good news. Dr. Sirous Asgari is in the air on a flight back to Iran. Congratulations to his wife and family,” the foreign minister said.

US authorities detained Asgari, a materials science and engineering professor, in April 2016 on charges of fraud and stealing trade secrets, in contravention of US sanctions. The professor maintained he was only in the US to visit his two daughters. The court acquitted Asgari on all charges in November, but Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detained him shortly after his release and held Asgari at a facility in Louisiana.  

The father of three contracted COVID-19 during his detention at the ICE facility, Winn Correctional Center, which authorities used to justify the delay in his deportation. Asgari was highly critical of the US authorities’ response to the center’s COVID-19 outbreak, and told the Guardian conditions were unclean and “inhumane.”

“It makes sense to send me to the hospital as soon as possible. I don’t trust them at all,” he said in an interview amid coughing fits on April 28. “If something happens, they are not fast responders … I prefer to leave this dirty place.”

The news of Asgari’s long-awaited deportation from the US comes after Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said on Monday “Mr. Sirous Asgari’s case has been closed,” and he would soon be returning to Iran. 

“Security of the Iranian inmates in the U.S. and Europe, whom we considered being taken as hostages, is very important for us,” the spokesman said. 

Prisoner Swap in the Cards 

Asgari’s return potentially paves the way for a rare prisoner swap deal between bitter enemies the US and Iran. 

On May 10, Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei released a statement saying Iran was ready to move ahead with a prisoner swap deal, but had not received a response from Washington.  

“We have announced that we are ready without any preconditions to exchange all prisoners and we are prepared to discuss the issue but Americans have not responded yet,” Rabiei said in a statement circulating among the Iranian government website and state news outlets. 

The likely US candidate if a swap does occur would be US Navy veteran Michael White, who is currently on furlough but has been imprisoned in Iran since 2018. The three other US citizens known to be jailed in Iran are father and son Siamak Namazi and Baquer Namazi and US-Iranian conservationist Morad Tahbaz, who also holds British citizenship. 

The last prisoner swap to take place between the two foes occurred in December 2019 when US Ph.D. student Xiuye Wang was returned in exchange for Iranian stem cell scientist Masoud Soleimani.  

Read also: Hardline, Ex-Tehran Mayor Qalibaf Becomes Iran’s New Parliamentary Speaker

Trump: States Should ‘Dominate’ Anti-Racism Protesters

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Protests against institutional racism in the United States, triggered by the death of George Floyd, are meeting state violence and media sensationalism. While US presidents commonly try to bring people together during such moments of national unrest, President Donald Trump used his May 2 speech to decry “an angry mob,” saying that the “biggest victims are peace-loving citizens in our poorest communities.”

Trump promised to “fight to protect you, I am your president of law and order and an ally of all peaceful protesters,” before describing the anti-racism protesters as “professional anarchists, violent mobs, arsonists, looters, criminals, rioters,” and “Antifa.” The US president blamed the death of two protesters on “dangerous thugs,” a racially charged term for black men.

Distorted narratives

US media networks have been busy building the narrative that racism and police brutality are bad, but that violence during protests is even worse. Governors, mayors, and public figures have urged people to stop protesting and “allow justice to be done.” But it appears to be exactly the absence of justice in so many cases of police brutality that are spurring protesters to continue.

Anyone that watches American television is left with the impression that the country is on fire. Images of burning buildings, violence, and the few instances of looting are played over and over while the mainly peaceful protests go under-reported. US media and politicians appear to have settled on a playbook of decrying George Floyd’s death with numerous superlatives, followed by highlighting cases of violence as justification to halt peaceful demonstrations.

Prominent US figures continue to caution of white supremacists infiltrating protests to instigate violence and escalate tensions.

Fanning the flames

As per usual, Donald Trump’s reactions are less subtle than most. He called for increased state violence and for governors to “dominate” those exercising their constitutional right to freedom of speech and addressing their grievances to the government. Trump announced he is “taking immediate action to stop the violence and restore security and safety in America.”

While Trump applauded the mainly-white protests against COVID-19 measures in April, the current protests will face the full mobilization of “all available federal resources, civilian and military.” Trump is now pressuring governors to deploy the National Guard, a branch of the military, against protesters in order to “dominate the streets.”

Police provoke confrontations

An increase in security forces is unlikely to deescalate protests, as police have often been the source of violence. US police forces are overwhelmingly treating protesters as “the enemy” due to years of a militarization of US law enforcement. Heavily armed police officers in riot gear have been wrongly trained to escalate situations and use violence, according to an analysis provided by The Conversation.

“There was a time when the playbook was much more straightforward. The police would meet with the organizers of the protest, and they would lay out ground rules together that would provide for an opportunity for protesters to do exactly what they have a right to do,” Ronal Serpas, a former police chief and professor of criminology told The Marshall Project.

Electoral ploy?

Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman called Trump’s strategy “weaponized racism” in a New York Times opinion piece on Monday as it appears Trump is pitching America’s white and Black populations against each other. The Boston Globe highlighted how Trump ignores racism and police brutality as he fuels unrest between different segments of US society.

Donald Trump appears to see the protests as an electoral winner. The unrest distracts from the 105,192 dead Americans due to COVID-19 and energizes racist elements in his base of support.

By filling his supporters’ minds with fear of racial unrest and burning businesses, he appears to want to trigger the anxiety and fear that too often drive some conservative voters.

With the current de-facto state of martial law featuring soldiers on the streets and political opponents labeled “terrorists,” Trump slowly appears more like the dictators he praises on a regular basis.

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