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Billionaires Profit as Working People Starve

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In the three months since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, US billionaires have become $565 billion richer, while 43 million Americans have lost their jobs, a report by the Institute for Policy Studies has revealed. The report reflects a vast disconnect between the world’s richest and everyone else.

Far from being just a US problem, the world’s billionaires have profited from trillions of dollars in tax-payer funded stimulus, meaning the poor and working classes are literally paying for the success of the wealthy. Politicians have justified stimulus for stock markets as a way to ensure citizens would not lose their jobs, but the opposite has happened.

No crisis for billionaires

Tens of millions of people in the US alone have lost their jobs, and, after the crisis, they will be asked to pay for the stock-market stimulus through increased taxes or reduced public spending.

The colossal transfer of wealth directly from the poor and working-classes to the rich that has occurred over the last months has not been an exception, but the rule over recent decades.

Because billionaires do not work for their money but instead profit from investments, they pay minimal taxes over their income, often paying less in taxes relatively than a shopkeeper, office worker, or taxi driver would.

Multi-billionaire Warren Buffet highlighted this problem when he revealed that his secretary pays more of her income into taxes than he does.

Global concentration of wealth

The concentration of wealth in the hands of a select few is a global problem. According to the EU, 70% of the world’s population owns only 3% of the world’s wealth. In 2018 alone, billionaires’ wealth increased by 12%, or $2.5 billion a day, while the poorest people’s combined wealth actually declined by 11%.

The decades of supply-side economics have literally taken money from the poor and given it directly to the rich.

Over the past three decades the world’s richest have become 300% richer while the world’s poorest saw no increase in wealth whatsoever. If our current trend continues, by 2050 the world’s richest 0.1% of the population will own more wealth than all working people on earth.

Middle-Eastern fortunes

In the Middle East and North Africa, the concentration of wealth is harder to measure as fortunes are more opaque and often hidden in foreign bank accounts or real-estate. Forbes magazine compiles an annual list of the world’s richest that reveals some of the vast wealth held by a few in the region.

In Israel, 9 individuals hold $28.6 billion in private wealth, Egypt’s 11 billionaires have $15.4 billion, and the UAE has 11 billionaires worth a combined $24.7 billion. Turkey has the most egregious concentration of wealth, with 22 people hoarding $37.1 billion of wealth. Like the United States the ultra-rich in the MENA barely pay taxes, meaning they are literally taking from the poor.

Stark contrast

The fortunes of the world’s moneyed elite stand in stark contrast with the fate of the poor. The UN announced that thousands are likely to suffer and die in Yemen, after 30 nations together failed to raise $2.4 billion required to fund COVID-19 and basics like food and water. The UN has warned of an approaching famine of “biblical proportions.”

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program in Yemen have had to halve the food rations they give to starving people due to lack of funds. The total bill to save thousands in Yemen is $2.4 billion, which is less than 7% of the money Amazon-owner Jeff Bezos’ has made since March 18 this year.

The contrast between the vast fortunes of the rich and the terrible plight of the poor reveals that our world appears to have returned to a state of feudal lords and working peasants. While it might not be immoral to be tremendously rich, doing so while your neighbors suffer and starve defies human morality and basic compassion.

Kuwait Announces Ambitions to Decrease Reliance on Migrant Workers

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Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sabah Al-Khalid Al-Sabah has announced that the country will aim to drastically change the country’s demographics in the coming years. The prime minister, who assumed the position as an appointee in November 2019, said “we have a future challenge to redress this imbalance,” referring to the country’s large population of foreign workers.

Migrants in Kuwait

Kuwait currently hosts millions of expatriates, making up 70% of a total population of over 4.5 million. The country has announced similar plans before, deporting thousands since 2016, but continues to depend heavily on cheap foreign laborers that benefit from the country’s low tax rate to save or send remittances home.

Migrant workers in Kuwait mainly perform low-skilled labor in occupations that Kuwaitis themselves avoid. Domestic help, construction, and lower-level public sector jobs have been filled by nationals from other Middle Eastern states and Asia more broadly.

Kuwait has previously considered imposing quota systems on immigration and is now proposing similar ideas, but the small native population would be hard-pressed to fill the gap left by the departure of millions.

Pandemic reveals risks

Poor living conditions and housing for unskilled laborers has become a major source of risk for Kuwait and many other Gulf states. While the country implemented COVID-19 measures early and general adherence was maintained, the migrant population in most Gulf countries allowed the virus to spread because of the cramped conditions of expatriate housing.

For Kuwait, the crisis appears to have renewed a drive to reduce its expatriate population and work toward a state of self-reliance. Like many Gulf states, Kuwait is facing increased tensions due to protests from foreign workers packed together in COVID-19 containment camps, and has seen a worrying rise in xenophobia towards migrants.

As the concept of shrinking populations is becoming more common in highly developed economies such as Japan and several European states, Kuwait’s plans would produce a unique experiment in rapid population decline.

Growing tensions

Kuwait has faced a challenge for years in how it could to reduce its population while continuing to grow its GDP and further develop the state.

Migrants who contributed to Kuwait’s development could suffer if it indeed “purifies the country,” as Kuwaiti parliamentarian Safaa Al-Hashem phrased it in Kuwait City-based newspaper Al Qabas.

Kuwaiti actress Hayat al-Fahad told a local television channel that immigrants who tested positive for COVID-19 should be “put in the desert” in order to save hospital beds for nationals while journalist Mubarak Albugaily called Egyptians workers in Kuwait a “burden on the state” in a public call for mass deportation.

Future growth

If the state of Kuwait is to find a solution to its dilemma of producing growth with a shrunken population, its officials could benefit from a cooling of tempers regarding immigrants.

If Kuwaiti officials and public figures continue to accuse migrants of exploiting the system, and migrants continue to live under poor conditions, the country might get its wish prematurely.

By prioritizing a deportation process and quota system that provides non-coercive incentives for departure and a recognition of foreign workers’ human rights, Kuwait could slowly wean itself of its reliance on migrant workers. However, the question of what would replace the labor of millions remains.

The country could copy strategies employed by Japan where automation, digital innovation, and the use of artificial intelligence are rapidly replacing low-skilled work. But getting to that point would require much time and work, during which foreign workers would remain an important part of Kuwait’s economy.

Syrian Palace Intrigue Over Stolen Fortune Continues to Devolve

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The dirty laundry of Syria’s governing Assad family is airing publicly as the family attempts to gain control over an opaque fortune held by one side of the family. For decades the Makhloufs, the family of Bashar al-Assad’s mother, used their network of international businesses and government connections to channel a slice of Syria’s oil revenue into foreign bank accounts.

The bargain benefited the Makhlouf family while providing the Assads with financial firepower outside general taxation. But the relationship between the two branches of the same family started to fracture during the Syrian civil war, which required Russian military assistance to regain control over the population at a price.

Post-war tensions

If the conflict’s aftermath, Russia and Bashar al-Assad’s wife Asma have become increasingly influential in palace intrigue that would make for an interesting television drama. Russia benefits from a concentration of power around the Assads, who owe Russia for their intervention. Asma al-Assad competes with the Makhloufs for influence over the Alawites, an important political bloc that is the bedrock of Assad’s power.

Rami Makhlouf, the cousin of Bashar al-Assad, has become the focal point in the family rift. He followed in his father, Mohammed Makhlouf’s footsteps and used his family’s connections to accumulate tremendous wealth while backing the Assads with financial support and influence over the Alawites.

The mutually beneficial relationship between Rami Makhlouf’s business empire and al-Assad’s grip on power has now fractured to the point where both sides are making public moves. The conflict is revealing much about a structural kleptocracy where state and business overlap and intertwine.

Stand-off

The latest chapter in the palace drama has come in the way of a travel ban for Rami Makhlouf and an order for the Syrian stock market to ban trading in Makhlouf’s telecom business. In response, Rami Makhlouf “donated” his assets to a charity, one that he founded and controls.

Rami Makhlouf’s function as a “money man” for the Assad family appears to have come to an end, but the trouble with opaque hidden fortunes is that they are difficult to retrieve. Much of the money that the Assads channeled into foreign banks was routed by the Makhlouf family and it appears they now are the only ones that can provide access to the vast treasure of stolen Syrian wealth.

With the two family branches at a stand-off, more explosive developments and revelations will surely soon become public.

OPEC Countries Face Difficult Choice as Volatile Oil Prices Rise

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With oil prices now close to $40 per barrel, member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have a difficult choice to make. Oil prices have benefited from voluntary and involuntary production cuts amid a global demand slump that is slowly easing.

However,with countries gradually reopening their economies and some airlines restarting national and international flights, oil prices are likely to rise as demand steadily increases.

The significant impact that production cuts have had on the volatile oil markets has not gone unnoticed and OPEC’s contribution to global cuts has been significant. The budgets of OPEC member states have also been impacted by the effects of production cuts as oil-dependent states have seen their revenue evaporate with mounting deficits and painful austerity in national social welfare spending.

Volatility

Global oil industry experts and commodity traders have been closely monitoring the developments around an upcoming meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia, in order to discuss a potential one month extension to its production cuts. When news broke that the meeting could be delayed, global oil prices dipped again.

However, the Saudi-led OPEC bloc has not been able to universally cut production. Iraq, for instance, has little power over its production levels as most oil is extracted by international oil companies. The country has negotiated with these supermajors but has been unable to sufficiently cut back production, a situation similar to Nigeria’s. The fate of an upcoming OPEC meeting now hangs on whether these non-complying nations can meet their pledged cuts or not.

Dependence

For many countries that are dependent on oil for significant parts of their state income, the current prices are tempting. With prices at their highest since March 6, many countries would like to crank up production and increase revenues. But doing so might cause oil prices to fall again as global demand has not reached sufficient levels to justify a free-for-all in oil production.

Low prices do have a long-term strategic advantage as they would exacerbate the widespread bankruptcies and consolidation in the US shale gas industry and potentially reduce investment in high-cost oil production like off-shore and tar-sand extraction. While traditional low-cost producers in the Middle East and North Africa would stand to benefit from increased market-share in the long-term, current budget difficulties and plummeting state revenue could prompt countries to favor a more short-term solution.

Short-term pain

The other option is to continue with cuts, suffer another month of pain with an eye on a recovery in oil prices once demand picks up. This means that 2020 national budgets could suffer less and austerity can be minimized.

In the long-term this would mean that traditional low-cost oil producers in the Middle East would have to continue to compete with more expensive producers that have taken a large chunk of market-share in the last decades.

The short-term pain of continuing production cuts could help raise the price of oil to levels where national budgets produce lower deficits, and unrest associated with austerity can be avoided. Choosing to increase national production could create a few weeks of income at current levels before prices go down once again, with the potential of increased market-share in the long-run.

With no easy options, the coming OPEC meetings and another possible Saudi-Russian agreement will likely have widespread effects on global oil markets for years to come.

Middle East Games Con Announces Free 2020 Virtual Event

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Now in its fourth year, the Middle East Games Con is the GCC’s largest gaming event. In previous years YouTube personalities including MatPat, Ali-A, and Miniminter have attended the event. Ticket holders were allowed a front row seat to official e-sports tournaments, trialling untested games, and participating in cosplay competitions. 

Scheduled for October 29-31, this year’s event will be free for anyone who registers. Whilst organizers have yet to release details, they are promising e-sports, special guests, exclusive reveals, gaming awards, and more.

The decision to hold the event virtually follows Saudi Arabia’s announcement of the Gamers Without Borders event. As previously reported by Arabia Policy, the seven-week-long tournament has a unique charity element with the $10 million dollar prize pool to be donated to the COVID-19 charities of the winner’s choice. 

Gaming and e-sports booming in MENA

Online gaming and e-sports are expected to reach a worth of $159 billion in 2020, far outstripping the value of both the music and film industry. The market in the MENA region is the fastest growing in the world and is expected to triple in size to an estimated $4.4 billion by 2022. 

Despite a growth rate two times that of other regions, players from the MENA region face a number of challenges. Key among these is the lack of dedicated servers in the region. Currently, players from the Levant and North Africa use European servers whilst those in the Gulf rely on servers from Asia. This puts players from the region at a disadvantage as lags in response from the servers can cause them to lose vital points.  

The lack of localized content, including games using the Arabic language, presents both a challenge for players and an opportunity for entrepreneurial developers.

Is the US Under a De Facto State of Martial Law?

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The United States is in a state of social unrest not seen since protests against the Vietnam War and for civil rights peaked in the 1960s. But unlike during the 1960s, the country is facing an unprecedentedly unresponsive government.

Political silence

Even while politicians espouse the validity of the protesters’ grievances, not a single politician has offered them anything tangible in response. The only response that the self-professed beacon of democracy is offering is for frustrated citizens to “shut up” and go home.

There have been no five-point plans, no official strategies, no bills proposed, and no committees formed to investigate. The US is not even offering these usual empty gestures. The best protesters have received is an indication that Democrats are “considering reforms.”

With few allies in government and no power of redress, protests have spiraled out of control, often provoked by police officers geared-up as if facing a foreign enemy force. With thousands of people on the streets, simple probability tells us that criminal acts would occur.

Government oppression

Instead of framing acts of vandalism and looting as a logical result of years of pent up frustration and despair, or even a statistical likelihood, politicians and celebrities are calling on protesters to stop. Go home and “wait for justice to be served” is the near-universal response.

It is exactly the absence of justice and the clear disregard from their Democratic representatives that is spurring people on to keep up the pressure. Instead of diffusing the tension, the Trump administration is callously adding fuel to the fire in what appears to be a sad and desperate electoral ploy.

The result of pitting protesters against police in riot gear is nothing less than a de facto declaration of martial law. When the state arbitrarily silences, arrests, and attacks citizens, when law enforcement officials shoot, pepper spray, or arrest journalists showing their press credentials, when the government ignores the professed will of the people, only a declaration of martial law is left to formalize the state of the country.

Mock political process

It appears that the protesters in US streets are seeing their government in a new light. Through the lens of black suffering, Americans of all backgrounds are seeing the disingenuous political divide for what it is: A smokescreen to hide that US politicians have become nothing more than the administrators of a country bought and paid for by big business and the extremely rich.

For years the Republicans and Democrats have performed a play reminiscent of the fixed basketball games of the Harlem Globetrotters, with the Democrats taking the role of the Washington Generals, doomed to lose but eager to make a show of it. Rich donors purposely support weak, ineffective Democrats that have no shot or desire to actually change the system, which has resulted in over 1,000 electoral losses since Obama became president.

While many refer to the Trump era as an era of anti-Trump Democratic resistance, in reality 70% of all bills that are signed into law have received bipartisan support, with the common denominator being that both parties’ donors agreed on these bills.

No options

In a state where the government does not respond to the will of voters and social movements, many feel the only response left is civil disobedience and attempts to block the functioning of the economy. The Trump administration appears to recognize this fact in its response to the protests. Calls to “dominate” protesters and heavy-handed police action are the last remaining responses available to a government unwilling to give an inch towards greater social and economic equality.

The only political option left for those hoping for change is to vote for Joe Biden, a man who only promises to “not be Trump,” who said any additional wishes for progress or justice must mean that “you ain’t black.” Trump’s opponent in November has his own archive of problematic statements about the black community and he does not even appear to want to pretend he will bring any change.

Last resort

The only redress left to protesters is to desperately confront the police they meet on the streets. With no legitimately authoritative representative of the state offering them any solutions, the crowds can only channel their anger and frustration towards heavily armed police, most of whom themselves are part of the increasingly shrinking American middle class.

It appears now that the Trump administration is fearing that the men and women in law enforcement might reach a breaking point and turn on the government itself. In Washington, DC, unmarked military forces have started to make an appearance, with no identifying badges or tags. First reported on Twitter, these soldiers have stated they are part of the “justice department,” but the failure to properly identify themselves is a breach of the Geneva Convention.

With both protesters and the government becoming increasingly desperate, the US is in a precarious state that resembles a “state of emergency” in an authoritarian context. Much remains unclear as those on the streets of the United States write a new history.

IIF: Gulf Countries Facing Historic Economic Crisis

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The six nations that comprise the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are facing heavy impacts from the coronavirus pandemic and a drop in oil prices amid a sudden demand slump. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are in for a difficult period according to the International Institute for Finance (IIF), a global association of financial institutions.

The Institute had already announced that emerging markets are facing an “unparalleled sudden stop,” with capital leaving the economies of developing nations at never-before-seen rates. Capital is flowing from emerging markets to developed ones at over five times the rate at the worst point of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Triple threat

For the six GCC countries, local economies are suffering from a trifecta of bad news. Capital flows are moving to developed nations and oil revenues have cratered while tourism, hospitality, retail, and travel sectors are all facing unprecedented difficulties due to stringent COVID-19 measures.

Despite the overall relatively successful containment of the coronavirus, GCC countries are set to see a contraction in real gross domestic product (GDP) of 4.4% according to IIF predictions. The World Bank in 2019 had predicted GDP growth between 1% and 4% for most GCC countries, an improvement over the previous year. Oman was considered one of the Council’s members most likely to grow, with an increase estimated at 3.7% due to increased natural gas production.

Oil revenue and state budgets

But the coronavirus and an international “war” over oil prices means the region is now in for a contraction in GDP. The IIF is cheering on unpopular austerity measures as a means to stop deficits from growing as cuts in public spending “could more than offset losses stemming from reduced oil exports.” Even with unpopular and painful spending cuts, the Gulf Council’s aggregate deficits are expected to increase to 10.3% of GDP.

Oman, which the World Bank touted as the GCC country most likely to grow significantly in 2020, is now considered “an increasingly vulnerable spot in the region in light of its mounting debt.” The country could face an economic contraction of 5.3% while its deficit is likely to widen to 16.1%, according to the IIF.

Opportunity to reform?

The crisis also poses an opportunity to build up resilience according to Alain Bejjani, CEO of Emirati retail operator Majid al Futtaim. “In the coming two to three years, we’re going to see, certainly, a very, very large impact that’s going to be asymmetric, depending on the readiness of countries,” Bejjani told CNBC on May 5.

“I think this is a golden opportunity to really change, to reform and to transform our economies into more resilient economies that have (the) ability to bounce back faster,” Bejjani stated. The current crisis could easily accelate reforms and diversification that have resulted in broader opportunities and even improved conditions for women in GCC countries.

World Cycling Day: In 2020 A New Hero Emerges

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Around the world, bicycle sales have skyrocketed as commuters look for ways to avoid public transport and large crowds. After months of confinement, many are also seeking new ways to enjoy the outdoors. The Economist reports an increase of over 100% in bike usage in Switzerland and Philadelphia, US, and a 50% increase in bike sales across the United States as a whole in March. 

In Dubai, bike sales and hire continue  to grow as lockdown eases with the owner of Revolution Cycles Stewart Howison reporting a 120% increase in bike hire. In Tunis, bike shop owner Mehdi Thameur has recorded a 30% increase in sales since the beginning of the crisis.  

Contributing to a cleaner planet 

Globally, the decrease in vehicle usage over the past few months has contributed to a fall in pollution levels. In an attempt to make reductions in pollution and car usage permanent, governments across the world are using subsidies and expanding infrastructure to encourage citizens to embrace the bicycle. 

In Cairo, pollution has fallen over 30% during the lockdowns with  factories closed and traffic drastically reduced. In an attempt to permanently lower traffic levels, the Egyptian government is seeking to expand a bike sharing service launched in February. With the support of the UN Development Program, the Global Environment Facility and the Dutch government, the government hopes to offer all students in Egypt access to the system by 2024.  

In Tunisia, the activist group Velorution has used the pandemic to further their calls for improved cycling infrastructure in the capital. The lack of infrastructure is a major barrier to the expansion of cycling with the recent  death of group member Radhia Khaled, highlighting the dangers for those who cycle on the road.  

On their bikes to break down barriers 

More than just a means of transport, in recent years bicycles have become a tool for social change in the MENA too, with women embracing cycling as a way to break down restrictive cultural norms.  

In Cairo, the Cairo Cycling Geckos use their bikes to promote women cycling in the city. The organisation was founded by Nouran Salah in 2016, with the aim of organising group cycles for women, primarily in order to avoid harassment and  encourage more women to ride. The group now organises two rides per month with the riders combining their mission to normalize female bicycle usage with providing humanitarian assistance to some of the city’s most vulnerable. In Ramadan this year, the group distributed almost 800 food packages to the needy. 

Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, cycling as a sport for women was on the rise in the region too. In January this year, Saudi Arabia hosted its first major cycling event for women with over 1000 participants taking part in the three-race series. As the sport continues to grow in popularity, the Saudi Sports for All Federation (SFA) estimates that 30% of cyclists in the country are women. 

 

Read also: IIF: Gulf Countries Facing Historic Economic Crisis

Yemen Donor Drives Raise Only Half of Required Funds

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A virtual conference featuring a donor drive for Yemen has raised half of its target. The UN needs $2.41 billion dollars in humanitarian aid in order to stave off disaster in Yemen, and the donor drive aimed to produce those funds.

The prestigious “Yemen Conference 2020” event opened with a speech from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres who declared that “we are in a race against time, aid agencies estimate they will need up to $2.41 billion to cover essential aid from June until December, including programmes to counter Covid-19.”

But, as the event concluded it had become clear that the summit would raise only half of its intended goal.

Pledged Donations

30 countries pledged donations reaching only $1.35 billion, with several parties directly and indirectly involved in the conflict contributing. The United States and Great Britain, two of the largest weapons suppliers to the conflict, donated $225 million and $201 million respectively. France, whose tanks and laser-guided missile systems are being used in the conflict, donated $9.6 million while another prominent arms manufacturer for the conflict, Germany, pledged to contribute nearly $138 million.

Several European countries that have not directly benefited from arms sales to the conflict also contributed to the donations. Belgium $5.5 million, Denmark pledged $3.4, Norway and the Netherlands both added $17 million to the total and Sweden has pledged $30.8 million. The European Commission will chip in an additional $78.2 million.

Asian nations also contributed, with Japan announcing a $41.2 million pledge, South Korea will add $18.5 million to the tally. China did not enter a pledge but has been sending 2,400 metric tons of food directly to Yemen.

Saudi Arabia, who leads a coalition in support of the government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, pledged to donate $500 million. According to UN documents the UAE did not make any pledges, with the country’s media instead focusing on a moment when a minister’s son made a cameo as the UAE politician made her speech.

Insufficient funds

“We welcome the pledges made today. But this still falls far short of what is needed to alleviate the suffering,” said Jan Egeland, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council.

“Millions of Yemeni people are staring down the double barrel of starvation and a global pandemic,” Egeland stated. “The money pledged today needs to be disbursed immediately and donors who failed to put their hands in their pockets must step up.”

In advance of the conference, the International Rescue Committee had urged countries to contribute to direly needed assistance. “This is the time for donors to step up, not to look away,” the IRC urged, “the IRC is calling for a rapid increase in funding to frontline agencies to help us scale up the COVID-19 response and continue to provide the humanitarian assistance that we know saves lives.”

However, money alone will do little for Yemen as fighting continues. The UN has warned of a “macabre tragedy” as continued fighting and a collapsed healthcare system provide the perfect storm of misery for Yemen’s embattled population.

“Money alone is not enough” the NRC’s Jan Egeland said. “These pledges are worth little if people are still fleeing from bombs and crossfire and their hospitals attacked. All parties must lay down their weapons and join forces to meet the one common enemy at the gates: Covid-19.”

Iranian FM: US Deports Jailed Iranian Professor

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Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif announced today that the US has deported Iranian Professor Sirous Asgari, recently acquitted of stealing trade secrets, back to Iran. 

The 59-year-old scientist is now back in Iran with his family, according to an Instagram post by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.  

“Hello friends. Good news. Dr. Sirous Asgari is in the air on a flight back to Iran. Congratulations to his wife and family,” the foreign minister said.

US authorities detained Asgari, a materials science and engineering professor, in April 2016 on charges of fraud and stealing trade secrets, in contravention of US sanctions. The professor maintained he was only in the US to visit his two daughters. The court acquitted Asgari on all charges in November, but Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detained him shortly after his release and held Asgari at a facility in Louisiana.  

The father of three contracted COVID-19 during his detention at the ICE facility, Winn Correctional Center, which authorities used to justify the delay in his deportation. Asgari was highly critical of the US authorities’ response to the center’s COVID-19 outbreak, and told the Guardian conditions were unclean and “inhumane.”

“It makes sense to send me to the hospital as soon as possible. I don’t trust them at all,” he said in an interview amid coughing fits on April 28. “If something happens, they are not fast responders … I prefer to leave this dirty place.”

The news of Asgari’s long-awaited deportation from the US comes after Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said on Monday “Mr. Sirous Asgari’s case has been closed,” and he would soon be returning to Iran. 

“Security of the Iranian inmates in the U.S. and Europe, whom we considered being taken as hostages, is very important for us,” the spokesman said. 

Prisoner Swap in the Cards 

Asgari’s return potentially paves the way for a rare prisoner swap deal between bitter enemies the US and Iran. 

On May 10, Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei released a statement saying Iran was ready to move ahead with a prisoner swap deal, but had not received a response from Washington.  

“We have announced that we are ready without any preconditions to exchange all prisoners and we are prepared to discuss the issue but Americans have not responded yet,” Rabiei said in a statement circulating among the Iranian government website and state news outlets. 

The likely US candidate if a swap does occur would be US Navy veteran Michael White, who is currently on furlough but has been imprisoned in Iran since 2018. The three other US citizens known to be jailed in Iran are father and son Siamak Namazi and Baquer Namazi and US-Iranian conservationist Morad Tahbaz, who also holds British citizenship. 

The last prisoner swap to take place between the two foes occurred in December 2019 when US Ph.D. student Xiuye Wang was returned in exchange for Iranian stem cell scientist Masoud Soleimani.  

Read also: Hardline, Ex-Tehran Mayor Qalibaf Becomes Iran’s New Parliamentary Speaker