Egypt Claims Right to Intervene in Libya

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi announced on Saturday Egypt’s intentions to intervene within its troubled neighbor’s borders if the Libyan conflict moves further east. The call comes in response to repeated advances by the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) that is making gains against the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA).

After being besieged in the country’s capital Tripoli for a year, GNA forces have enjoyed new momentum after a significant military intervention by Turkey. In exchange for drilling rights in Libyan waters and influence in Tripoli, Turkey has changed the Libyan war with an influx of drones, military hardware, and mercenaries.

Escalation

In response to the GNA’s newfound military advantage, the LNA has acquired Russian MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter jets to counter the increasing use of drones against the military bases and air defenses of the Eastern faction led by Khalifa Haftar. But the Tripoli-based government is pressing its current military advantage to push further east, reducing Haftar’s sphere of influence in Libya.

Turkish-backed GNA forces are now advancing on Sirte, located roughly halfway between Tripoli and the LNA’s capital in Benghazi. El-Sisi said on June 20 that any further military movements towards Sirte and the Jufra district below it are a “red line.” With combatants nearing Egypt’s borders, they bring the chaos of irregular fighting between militias that has defined the Libyan conflict since its onset.

Egyptian response

Egypt, el-Sisi declared, will consider direct military intervention within Libya’s borders if fighting moves further east. The Benghazi-based LNA government expressed support for Egypt’s intentions as it issued a statement calling on the United Nations in Libya to increase efforts to enforce the weapons embargo that has become an embargo in name only as more and more advanced weaponry enters the Libyan theater of war.

Without a ceasefire in place, the eastern Libyan government could invite an Egyptian response, according to el-Sisi. “Any military intervention by Egypt will be according to the principles of international law,” the Egyptian leader stated. But the Western-based GNA called the Egyptian statement a “declaration of war.”

International reception

On Sunday the United States released a statement in response to el-Sisi’s remarks. “The United States strongly opposes military escalation in Libya – on all sides,” a National Security Council (NSC) statement said, urging “parties to commit to a ceasefire and resume negotiations immediately.”

As the Egyptian military mobilizes for a possible intervention on its western borders, the NSC hopes to steer progress through the ongoing negotiations between both sides. “We must build on progress made through the UN’s 5+5 talks, the Cairo Initiative, and the Berlin process,” the Council stated on the matter.

If an Egyptian incursion into Libya’s eastern districts would occur, it could pit several US allies against each other. France, Qatar, Egypt, the UAE and Turkey all have strong military ties to the US, and an escalation away from proxy war and towards direct military deployment could see US and European weaponry on both sides being used in what amounts to another dark page in Libya’s recent history.

Dubai Fitness Fanatics Organize Burpee World Record Event for Charity

After working out at home every day during the COVID-19 lockdown, and being touched by the plight of Ghanaians who become homeless while waiting for repatriation flights, Tarek Jabi decided to call in some fellow fitness fanatics to help him raise funds for those in need and attempt a world record while they are at it.  

Jabi enlisted the help of fellow Dubai-based fitness buddies Jade Palmer and Emil Pittman who run the online platform #Workoutwentviral and came up with the idea of doing a “burpee-a-thon” on Friday, June 19. Together, the trio alongside Anu Thomas, Johanna Suttie, and Yomi Egbeleye will lead the 12-hour #DoOneGiveOne challenge, run in conjunction with Emirates Red Crescent. 

The organization will use the funds to support people stranded in the United Arab Emirates by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated travel shutdowns. 

“There are a lot of people struggling to get by at the moment, or to get home,” Pittman said. “Many of those are people who have come in from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh on visit visas, for a better life for their families and got stuck here temporarily.” 

The six charity-minded sportspeople will aim to complete a combined total of 9,000 to 10,000 burpees between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. on Friday. Together with help from the public, their goal is to raise AED 50,000 ($13,600) and create a new Guinness World Record for the most burpees done by a team in 12 hours.  

As the name #DoOneGiveOne suggests, anyone can join in the burpee-a-thon. You can support the world record and charity event by signing on to a Zoom session and completing as many burpees as possible during a 45 minute time slot on Friday. Participants are encouraged to donate AED 1 ($0.27) for every burpee they complete, while a Guiness World Record team counts them towards the record attempt. 

“The more you do, the more you give,” Jabi said. “I want everyone to know that giving starts with a dirham. A lot of people want to give back to the community, but don’t know how… and any amount can make a difference.” 

Less energetic but equally charity-minded people can choose to simply donate without raising a sweat through the YallaGive platform. 

Read also: Dubai Security Forces Take Down Danish Gangster

 

 

Saudi Arabia Proposes Framework For Peace in Yemen

Saudi Arabia is planning to introduce a proposal that aims to realize a power-sharing agreement to end the conflict in Yemen. Saudi officials have not made the framework available publicly, but the proposal has been shared with Reuters who released details of the plan on Thursday, May 18.

The framework aims to create conditions for a renewal of the Riyadh Agreement that was signed on November 5, 2019 after months of delay.

The two-month deadline for implementation of the agreement has long since passed, but Saudi Arabian diplomats are hoping to re-engage the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government to finally implement the power-sharing deal.

Developments

The Yemeni conflict continues to spiral out of control amid grave concerns over the impact of COVID-19 while its devastated healthcare facilities are unable to cope with an influx in infections.

NGOs like Doctors Without Borders (MSF) have called on combatants to cease hostilities amid an unfolding “catastrophe,” but fighting continues and a funding drive for Yemen failed to raise the $2.4 billion needed to avert disaster in the country.

Significant advances made by the Emirati-backed STC have further weakened chances of a successful implementation of the Riyadh Agreement. Since signing the agreement, the STC has declared self-rule over Aden and swaths of the country’s South in direct violation of the terms.

The STC’s actions have highlighted the fractured nature of Saudi-Emirati cooperation who now support opposing sides vying for control.

Saudi framework

The new Saudi proposal calls for an immediate ceasefire in the Abyan province where ongoing fighting continues to claim casualties on all sides. The STC rescinding their declaration of self-rule over the important port city of Aden would then follow the ceasefire, which could prove to be a hard sell for the Transitional Council who has now ruled the area for months.

If the STC does agree to rescind its emergency rule over the area, Saudi-backed Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi would proceed to appoint a governor and security chief in Aden and appoint a new prime minister.

The Hadi-appointed prime minister would then proceed to form a cabinet that would include politicians of the STC.

The formation of government would follow a full withdrawal of STC forces from Aden. The agreement would require STC’s military units to move to Abyan where they have been engaged in direct conflict with government forces.

Incentives

While the agreement demands significant concessions from the Emirati-backed STC, it is unclear what incentives it offers for compliance.

Two STC sources have already told Reuters they would want to see the government formed before they withdraw their forces from Aden, as it remains unclear if Saudi diplomats are offering the STC, or the UAE that backs them, a quid-pro-quo for abandoning hard-fought military gains.

Another sticking point of the agreement is that the implementation of the deal would return the country to a similar status quo that prompted the Shia Houthis, who are backed by Iran, to rebel against Hadi’s government in the first place.

Bilateral agreement

A June 18 Houthi communique made no reference to the Saudi proposal but instead brought attention to a decaying oil tanker off Yemen’s coast. The unaddressed threat could soon create a 1 million-barrel oil spill in the Red Sea.

The Saudi-backed coalition is continuing aerial raids against Houthi weapons depots as they advance towards Marib, a stronghold of the Saudi-led coalition. The Houthis in turn have launched drones against Saudi targets, prompting the Saudi-led coalition to threaten “rigorous measures.”

It appears that Saudi Arabia is hoping the framework will bring Emirati-backed forces back to its ranks in order to concentrate efforts against the Iran-backed Houthi forces.

While observers should see any reduction in violence as a positive development, true peace in Yemen can likely only be realized by addressing all fighting parties’ concerns.

France Deems Turkish Ambitions in Libya ‘Unacceptable’

On June 10, a Greek navy ship approached a Turkish cargo vessel in the high seas off the coast of Libya. The European ship, tasked with upholding the Libyan arms embargo, approached the vessel and sent a message requesting to board and inspect the suspicious cargo ship. This is a standard procedure that regulatory ships have repeated 75 times in recent months, but this time it yielded unprecedented results.

The cargo freighter did not respond; instead a Turkish warship appeared that told the Greeks to back off. With no mandate to forcibly board the freight ship, the Greek naval ship was forced to retreat without any inspection. French President Emmanuel Macron called the act “unacceptable” as the event adds fuel to an escalating diplomatic row between France and Turkey.

UN mandate

An EU spokesman on June 11 was reluctant to give details about the events, instead referring to the head of “Operation Irini” in Rome, which hosts the task force monitoring the Libyan arms embargo.

The renewed focus on the repeated breaches of the UN embargo on the supply of arms to Libya had earlier resulted in UN Resolution 2526, which mandates a naval force with daily inspections of vessels approaching and departing the Libyan coast.

The task force aims to stop the flow of arms in exchange for Libyan oil by inspecting naval trade, with the results of these inspections going to a UN panel of experts tasked with evaluating the situation. While the arms embargo faces no opposition in diplomatic circles, in practice most foreign actors involved in the chaotic conflict breach it daily.

French response

With a fresh round of peace negotiations approaching, military operations on the ground are accelerating as both sides hope to make “gains” which they can then use in negotiations. Macron had earlier highlighted Turkish “broken promises” as the new GNA gains appear to be the result of a large-scale Turkish intervention that has introduced new aerial capabilities for the Tripoli government through the use of drones.

News confirmed the horror of the Libyan conflict yet again on June 12, when UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres expressed deep shock over the discovery of mass graves in the country. But the Turkish intervention last week that prevented UN inspection of one of its vessels presents a new escalation according to the French.

“The Turks are behaving in an unacceptable manner and are exploiting NATO. France cannot just stand by,” a French official stated, while another added that France had concerns over the “even more aggressive and insistent stance from Turkey, with seven Turkish ships deployed off the Libyan coast and violations of the arms embargo.”

Further chaos

France nominally supports both sides in the conflict. As part of the UN, it recognizes the Tripoli GNA government, but France also supports Libya’s eastern LNA faction led by leader Khalifa Haftar. Macron hosted Haftar at the Elise Palace in March and has attempted to mediate a cease-fire, but with Haftar’s forces in retreat after several GNA victories, the conflict has changed.

As the GNA advances, it has brushed aside calls for a cease-fire, as the LNA did when they were at their strongest. The inconclusive back-and-forth between the two factions has led to a radical escalation of foreign troops, mercenaries, and weaponry, all in a clear breach of the embargo.

The chaotic conflict has turned Libya into a lawless state where already desperate refugees hoping to reach Europe face exploitation and die by the dozens in Libyan slave markets and refugee camps or drown in the Mediterranean Sea.

What was initially a civil war fought by Libyan militias using civilian cars and light arms has devolved into a proxy war featuring Naval frigates, fighter jets, anti-air batteries, and drones. What was once an internal conflict over the future of the country has become a sandbox for a proxy-war between foreign nations, where the Libyans themselves have little to do with an eventual resolution.

Emirates Lays Off More Cabin Crew, Pilots

On June 9, the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) state-owned carrier made the “difficult decision” to begin retrenching workers, despite financial support assurances from the government. Emirates is yet to comment on the exact number of employees made redundant over the last two days, but an estimated 700 cabin crew and 600 pilots have been let go, according to airline sources who spoke to Arabian Business.  

Emirates said it had done its best to hold onto the airline’s workers for as long as possible but the global air travel downturn forced the company to reassess and begin mass reductions. The airline moved to assure workers they will receive their “contractual basic salary and fixed allowances,” in a termination letter seen by Bloomberg on June 9. 

“We have been doing everything possible to retain the talented people that make up our workforce for as long as we can. However, given the significant impact that the pandemic has had on our business, we simply cannot sustain excess resources and have to right size our workforce in line with our reduced operations,” Emirates said in a statement.  

The company continued the process of cutting jobs for a second day, Emirates sources told Reuters on June 10. The sources said Airbus A380, and Boeing 777 pilots are the next in line for redundancy layoffs. 

As the true impact of border closures and travel restrictions started to bite into Emirates’ cash reserves, the UAE government assured the world’s largest long-haul airline it would pump equity into the carrier.  

While COVID continues to shrink the aviation sector, it appears even government support was not enough to save jobs, forcing Emirates to draw up a new “resource plan,” according to a redundancy notice seen by Bloomberg and Gulf News. 

“Every business has had to re-examine its processes and resources to match the operational and support requirement in the months ahead,” the termination letter told staff. “Our new resource plan will see us through the next 18 months at least, and we cannot continue having an excess of people in certain roles.” 

The Emirates staff join thousands of other industry workers laid off due to the COVID-19 crisis, which has devastated aviation. The Dubai flagship carrier estimates it could take up to four years to resume normal flights to all 157 destinations it serviced pre-COVID-19, and Emirates Group CEO Tim Clark has warned A380s will not be back in the skies until a coronavirus vaccine is rolled out.  

The newly redundant cabin crew and pilots’ chances of finding a job in the same field are slim with industry body International Air Transport Association predicting 25 million global aviation jobs could disappear altogether due to the pandemic’s enormous impact.

Read also: US Ambassador Praises UAE’s COVID-19 Response

Dubai Security Forces Take Down Danish Gangster

Dubai State Security arrested Danish crime boss Amir Faten Mekky in a “sting operation” carried out in the early hours of June 4, United Arab Emirates authorities revealed today.  

A joint task force, including Dubai Public Prosecution and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, raided the 23-year-old gangster’s residence after spending gathering intelligence to confirm his identity. 

Mekky entered the United Arab Emirates using a fake passport on November 14, 2018, the Dubai Media Office said, but it is unclear what prompted the security services to suddenly zero in on the dangerous criminal.  

The arrest comes six months after the sensational arrest of “Angels of Death” gang leader Radwan Al-Taghi in Dubai last December. Dubai says its security forces are currently investigating Mekky and are ready to hand him over to “the relevant authorities,” although it is unclear which country he could be extradited to. 

Mekky is a high-profile Dutch crime lord with a long criminal history. He has eluded European authorities for years over his drug trafficking and money laundering activities and is wanted by INTERPOL for murder. 

Despite holding Danish nationality, Mekky’s criminal activity was based in Malmo, Sweden’s third-largest city. He has faced a “handful” of murder charges over recent years, stemming from Malmo gang feuds, Swedish daily newspaper Expressen reports

The same source says Mekky is wanted in connection with two gangland murders and a number of explosions carried out in Spain by the “Los Suecos” (Swedes) gang, which he allegedly heads.

“The high-profile arrest sends a clear message that Dubai will not tolerate international criminal activities even if the crimes have not been committed in the UAE. It also emphasized the UAE’s commitment to fulfilling its responsibilities towards combating transnational crime,” the Dubai Media Office said.

Read also: Dubai Airport Ready to Lead Air Travel Resumption

 

IIF: Gulf Countries Facing Historic Economic Crisis

The six nations that comprise the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are facing heavy impacts from the coronavirus pandemic and a drop in oil prices amid a sudden demand slump. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are in for a difficult period according to the International Institute for Finance (IIF), a global association of financial institutions.

The Institute had already announced that emerging markets are facing an “unparalleled sudden stop,” with capital leaving the economies of developing nations at never-before-seen rates. Capital is flowing from emerging markets to developed ones at over five times the rate at the worst point of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Triple threat

For the six GCC countries, local economies are suffering from a trifecta of bad news. Capital flows are moving to developed nations and oil revenues have cratered while tourism, hospitality, retail, and travel sectors are all facing unprecedented difficulties due to stringent COVID-19 measures.

Despite the overall relatively successful containment of the coronavirus, GCC countries are set to see a contraction in real gross domestic product (GDP) of 4.4% according to IIF predictions. The World Bank in 2019 had predicted GDP growth between 1% and 4% for most GCC countries, an improvement over the previous year. Oman was considered one of the Council’s members most likely to grow, with an increase estimated at 3.7% due to increased natural gas production.

Oil revenue and state budgets

But the coronavirus and an international “war” over oil prices means the region is now in for a contraction in GDP. The IIF is cheering on unpopular austerity measures as a means to stop deficits from growing as cuts in public spending “could more than offset losses stemming from reduced oil exports.” Even with unpopular and painful spending cuts, the Gulf Council’s aggregate deficits are expected to increase to 10.3% of GDP.

Oman, which the World Bank touted as the GCC country most likely to grow significantly in 2020, is now considered “an increasingly vulnerable spot in the region in light of its mounting debt.” The country could face an economic contraction of 5.3% while its deficit is likely to widen to 16.1%, according to the IIF.

Opportunity to reform?

The crisis also poses an opportunity to build up resilience according to Alain Bejjani, CEO of Emirati retail operator Majid al Futtaim. “In the coming two to three years, we’re going to see, certainly, a very, very large impact that’s going to be asymmetric, depending on the readiness of countries,” Bejjani told CNBC on May 5.

“I think this is a golden opportunity to really change, to reform and to transform our economies into more resilient economies that have (the) ability to bounce back faster,” Bejjani stated. The current crisis could easily accelate reforms and diversification that have resulted in broader opportunities and even improved conditions for women in GCC countries.

US Ambassador Praises UAE’s COVID-19 Response

The United States Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates has praised the UAE’s national response and global aid efforts amid the COVID-19 pandemic as the Gulf state continues to play a key role in virus aid delivery.  

In a recent video, the ambassador said multiple times how impressed he was by the UAE’s leadership in response to the novel coronavirus. 

“The UAE has been a leader in the world in how they are approaching this disease both inside the country and with the help they are giving to many, many countries around the world,” Rakolta said in the Abu Dhabi TV video

Rakolta applauded the UAE’s high testing numbers and pledged to treat all residents, be they UAE citizens or migrants, equally. He also expressed thanks for the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ cooperation and responsiveness, adding, “Etihad and Emirates Airline have spared no cost whatsoever, no effort to help get Americans back to the United States of America.”

“The UAE and the leaders have really shown what leadership is all about, they have been incredibly charitable with their giving to other countries, including the United States which we thank them for immensely,” the US ambassador said.

On June 2, the UAE sent eight metric tons of medical supplies to the Chechen Republic in Russia to bolster its efforts against COVID-19. The Etihad plane landed in Grozny, the capital of the Chechen Republic, carrying supplies that will support 8,000 local health workers in fighting the novel virus.

“The UAE stands by Russia in its campaign to overcome the COVID-19 crisis through international cooperation and assistance. Today’s delivery of aid represents the strong ties between our two nations, which have exerted all efforts to prioritize the health and wellbeing of our communities at every turn,” UAE Ambassador to Russia Maadhad Hareb Jaber Alkhayel said in response to the delivery.

To date, the UAE has sent $10 million worth of in-kind aid to the World Health Organization, provided aid to 98 different countries in recent weeks, and contributed to 80% of the total COVID-19 aid distributed worldwide, according to the UAE government’s dedicated COVID-19 aid Twitter account, “UAE Cares.”

Read also: New UAE Virtual Art Exhibition Privileges Gender Equality