Fighting Continues in South Yemen Despite Ceasefire

Hours after a ceasefire agreement was reached on Monday, June 22, fighting reportedly intensified in southern Yemen between the internationally-recognized government and Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces. The nominal allies traded cannon and mortar fire, both claiming they were responding to enemy fire and accusing the other of escalating tensions in contravention of the new truce agreement. 

According to STC spokesman Nizar Haytham, STC forces responded in self-defense to a major government offensive on the separatists’ positions in Sheikh Salem village, located in the Al-Taryia region of Abyan governorate in southern Yemen.

“They (government forces) launched a big offensive from Shouqra, hours after agreeing to the truce. We are committed to the truce and implementing the Riyadh Agreement as long as the government abides by it,” Haytham told Arab News on Wednesday.

“We also affirm our legitimate right to defend ourselves against these serious threats and violations, and we salute the perseverance and persistence of our heroic southern forces on all fronts of the fighting,” Haitham tweeted a day earlier. 

Meanwhile, an anonymous government source said the military, responding to STC and artillery fire on its positions east of the regional capital Zinjibar, hit back, successfully taking control of Al-Taryia. 

“Fighting has not stopped for even one hour since the truce was announced,” the army officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Arab News. 

Another military source told Turkish state-run news outlet Anadolu Agency “dozens” of STC militia were killed in the clashes on Tuesday, but failed to give any exact casualty figures.  

On Monday, Saudi-led coalition spokesman Turki Al-Malki announced the STC and Yemeni government had reached a ceasefire agreement. The two parties welcomed the new truce as did the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom. Many hoped it would help de-escalate Yemen’s “civil war within a civil war,” but Tuesday’s fighting has deflated such hopes. 

Finding unity difficult 

Saudi ceasefire observers arrived in the Abyan today amid calls from the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for a nation-wide truce and north-south reunification. Guterres told the Associated Press that, although Yemeni’s have “always had difficulties in finding unity among themselves,” they deserve peace.

The secretary-general said the international community needs to put more pressure on conflict parties to turn progress on confidence-building measures like port and airport access into the “beginning of a political process.”

“I’m still confident that that is possible,” Guterres said on Wednesday. “We need to put all pressure on the parties to the conflict and all relevant actors in order to make sure that the intense discussions that we have had in this regard lead to a positive outcome.”

The STC separatists, backed by the UAE since 2015, are seeking a return to independence from the rest of the country, which they joined in 1990. Taking advantage of escalating clashes with Houthi militia in the north, the secessionist council took control of the government capital Aden and southern provinces in August 2019.

Saudi Arabia brokered a truce between the supposed coalition partners in November 2019, known as the Riyadh Agreement, but in April 2020, the STC  declared self-rule. In-fighting escalated prior to the latest ceasefire agreement, culminating with the STC takeover of the strategically-located Socotra island over the weekend. 

Read also: Yemen Government Signs Ceasefire with STC

Yemen Government Signs Ceasefire with STC

The Saudi-led coalition announced that Yemen’s government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) have agreed to a ceasefire deal, and to resume talks within the framework of the Riyadh Agreement. 

Last week, Saudi Arabia pitched a new plan to reduce tensions with the STC, calling for a ceasefire in Abyan province and STC to relinquish emergency rule. After taking control of the strategically located UNESCO World Heritage-listed island of Socotra by force over the weekend, the STC appears to have been more amenable to finding a political solution to tensions with its coalition partners, and agreed to the ceasefire.  

“In light of the recent events in (Socotra) and (Abyan) governorate, the Coalition welcomes the response of the legitimate government of Yemen and the Southern Transitional Council for its request of a comprehensive ceasefire, de-escalation and a meeting to be convened in the Kingdom to move forward in implementing the Riyadh Agreement,”  Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen spokesman Colonel Turki Al-Malki said in an official statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency. 

Al-Malki said the coalition’s Joint Forces Command is deploying observers to Abyan to “observe the comprehensive ceasefire and separation of forces.” He also called for all parties to “prioritize the national interest of Yemen,” and to avoid “escalations in all Yemeni governorates.”

Socotra Take-Over

On Sunday, the STC, nominally aligned to the Saudi-led coalition government, says it has seized government buildings and military bases on Socotra Island, a UNESCO World Heritage site.  

The Southern Transitional Council says it has deposed the governor of Socotra, Ramzy Mahrous, and taken control of the four-island archipelago located in the Gulf of Aden. 

The Yemeni government, backed by the UAE and Saudi forces, accused the Southern Transitional Council (STC) of launching a “full-fledged” coup on Socotra Island, condemning their attack on government buildings as “gang-style behavior.”

The STC declared its self-rule in April. Socotra Governor Ramzi Mahroos says coalition partners the UAE and Saudi Arabia have ignored this declaration, including the weekend takeover of the strategically-positioned archipelago. Mahrous says the STC forces “raided” the island’s capital but according to STC spokesman Salem Abdullah al-Socotri, they were just “normalising the situation.”

Coalition In-fighting

Yemen has been mired in a bloody civil war for five years which pits the Houthi rebels, based in northern Yemen, against the internationally recognized government that rules from Aden and is backed by a Saudi-led coalition. The STC was ostensibly part of the internationally recognized government coalition and received backing from the UAE before it withdrew from Yemen last July to focus on “counter-terrorism” activities.

After growing increasingly disenfranchised with Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s governance and accusing it of corruption and mismanagement, the STC separatists took control of Aden and the southern provinces in August 2019 and demanded a power-sharing deal. In November Saudi Arabia brokered a deal between Hadi’s government and the STC, known as the Riyadh agreement, that theoretically put an end to the in-fighting between the two factions. 

In April 2020, with Hadi’s government distracted by a Houthi-led escalation of violence in the North, the STC used the deteriorating humanitarian situation to justify its declaration of self-rule of Aden and the southern provinces. 

The STC’s decision to consolidate its independence declaration by taking over Socotra can be taken as a rejection of that offer and adds another layer of complexity to the deeply entrenched conflict in Yemen. 

Why is Socotra Important? 

Socotra is best-known for the otherworldly dragon’s blood trees that dot the island. According to local mythology, the first tree grew from the blood of two brothers who fought to the death, and in light of Yemen’s contemporary struggles, they could be considered a sad symbol of the “civil war within a civil war” fought between the STC and internationally recognized government forces. 

The four-island archipelago is also known as the “Galapagos of the Indian Ocean,” and after breaking away from the Gondwana supercontinent a little less than 20 million years ago, has gone on to develop a rich biodiversity. UNESCO states that “37% of Socotra’s 825 plant species, 90% of its reptile species, and 95% of its land snail species do not occur anywhere else in the world.” 

As well as being full of unique flora and fauna, sparsely-populated Socotra is located in the strategically important Gulf of Aden shipping lane. Each year, some 21,000 ships use the vital sea lane which connects the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea in the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal, making it one of the world’s busiest and most important shipping lanes.

Read also: Saudi Arabia Proposes Framework For Peace in Yemen

Saudi Arabia Proposes Framework For Peace in Yemen

Saudi Arabia is planning to introduce a proposal that aims to realize a power-sharing agreement to end the conflict in Yemen. Saudi officials have not made the framework available publicly, but the proposal has been shared with Reuters who released details of the plan on Thursday, May 18.

The framework aims to create conditions for a renewal of the Riyadh Agreement that was signed on November 5, 2019 after months of delay.

The two-month deadline for implementation of the agreement has long since passed, but Saudi Arabian diplomats are hoping to re-engage the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government to finally implement the power-sharing deal.

Developments

The Yemeni conflict continues to spiral out of control amid grave concerns over the impact of COVID-19 while its devastated healthcare facilities are unable to cope with an influx in infections.

NGOs like Doctors Without Borders (MSF) have called on combatants to cease hostilities amid an unfolding “catastrophe,” but fighting continues and a funding drive for Yemen failed to raise the $2.4 billion needed to avert disaster in the country.

Significant advances made by the Emirati-backed STC have further weakened chances of a successful implementation of the Riyadh Agreement. Since signing the agreement, the STC has declared self-rule over Aden and swaths of the country’s South in direct violation of the terms.

The STC’s actions have highlighted the fractured nature of Saudi-Emirati cooperation who now support opposing sides vying for control.

Saudi framework

The new Saudi proposal calls for an immediate ceasefire in the Abyan province where ongoing fighting continues to claim casualties on all sides. The STC rescinding their declaration of self-rule over the important port city of Aden would then follow the ceasefire, which could prove to be a hard sell for the Transitional Council who has now ruled the area for months.

If the STC does agree to rescind its emergency rule over the area, Saudi-backed Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi would proceed to appoint a governor and security chief in Aden and appoint a new prime minister.

The Hadi-appointed prime minister would then proceed to form a cabinet that would include politicians of the STC.

The formation of government would follow a full withdrawal of STC forces from Aden. The agreement would require STC’s military units to move to Abyan where they have been engaged in direct conflict with government forces.

Incentives

While the agreement demands significant concessions from the Emirati-backed STC, it is unclear what incentives it offers for compliance.

Two STC sources have already told Reuters they would want to see the government formed before they withdraw their forces from Aden, as it remains unclear if Saudi diplomats are offering the STC, or the UAE that backs them, a quid-pro-quo for abandoning hard-fought military gains.

Another sticking point of the agreement is that the implementation of the deal would return the country to a similar status quo that prompted the Shia Houthis, who are backed by Iran, to rebel against Hadi’s government in the first place.

Bilateral agreement

A June 18 Houthi communique made no reference to the Saudi proposal but instead brought attention to a decaying oil tanker off Yemen’s coast. The unaddressed threat could soon create a 1 million-barrel oil spill in the Red Sea.

The Saudi-backed coalition is continuing aerial raids against Houthi weapons depots as they advance towards Marib, a stronghold of the Saudi-led coalition. The Houthis in turn have launched drones against Saudi targets, prompting the Saudi-led coalition to threaten “rigorous measures.”

It appears that Saudi Arabia is hoping the framework will bring Emirati-backed forces back to its ranks in order to concentrate efforts against the Iran-backed Houthi forces.

While observers should see any reduction in violence as a positive development, true peace in Yemen can likely only be realized by addressing all fighting parties’ concerns.