Economic Woes Could Trigger New Levant Conflict

When the militant extremists of ISIS started occupying territory in 2013, Iraq and Syria seemingly became the center of the world. Camera-crews from around the world reported breathlessly on each small town where black-clad men in pick-up trucks were advancing. Cities like Mosul, Raqqa and Palmyra became common features in news items as each small conquest was widely shared.

But in 2020, it seems very few still care about the region. Camera-crews have moved on and politicians have found new enemies to worry about. The reporting in the region does garnish is a stream of negative news. Financial crises, the impact of COVID-19, rising bread prices, it appears the region just cannot catch a break from misery.

Countries like Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria face multiple crises at once, with far-reaching consequences for neighboring countries and the region as a whole. What seems like an uncommonly troubled region where misery appears to simply compound and evolve, is largely a strategy of orchestrated and controlled chaos at the behest of foreign powers and institutions.

Hyperinflation

Comments on “hyperinflation” are becoming more common in reports on Syria and Lebanon, as extreme inflation causes prices for basic necessities to skyrocket amid stagnant or diminishing wages. Hyperinflation has sparked renewed protests in Syria, unseen since Bashar al-Assad and Russia reasserted control over the country through a brutal military campaign.

In Lebanon protests have again rocked the country, with much of the ire aimed at the country’s banking sector and the Lebanese central bank itself. A crisis of institutionalized corruption and sectarianism have intertwined with the country’s dwindling foreign currency reserves and the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic to create a “perfect storm” of troubles for the Lebanese.

Austerity

In response to a historic drop in oil demand, oil prices have tumbled to levels that no expert could have predicted at the start of the year. For countries in the region, the drop in state revenue leaves large gaps in their national budget amid an increase of costs for the healthcare sector and much needed basic support for the poorest and most vulnerable.

In order to find funds abroad, countries like Lebanon and Iraq face increasing pressures from global institutions to reform their countries in order to cut public spending, boost the private sector and increase foreign direct investment. Receiving loans from institutions like the World Bank and the IMF means bending domestic policy to align with foreign visions and implementing unpopular reforms.

Sanctions

Then there are ever increasing sanctions that further weaken local economies. The US targets the leadership of Syria by halting most international trade, including from its destitute neighbor Lebanon. Washington similarly limits Iraq’s ability to buy much needed energy from its neighbor Iran, with the US issuing “waivers” that allow Iraq to import Iranian electricity.

Iran itself is facing crippling sanctions that have turned a health crisis into an unmitigated human tragedy, as the country continues to have the life squeezed out of its last remaining international trade. Iran has faced severe medical shortages and faced major barriers to importing much needed protective equipment and medicine, making the spread of COVID-19 in the entire region more likely.

Misery by Design

While hyperinflation, austerity, and sanctions continue to make an impact on citizens’ lives in the region, none of these are accidental byproducts, but instead are very much the intended goal. Financial support only comes when nations submit to the “Washington Consensus,” turning their countries into neoliberal countries rife for exploitation by foreign multinationals.

Sanctions and hyperinflation are similarly highly related to foreign influence. Sanctions on Syria intend not just to hurt its leadership but actively intend to starve the people of Syria and Lebanon into revolt against its leaders. US officials regularly regurgitate their belief that economic hardship for citizens will lead to a popular uprising that will replace elements of the government that the US does not like.

Sovereignty

While it appears that countries in the region roll from one crisis to the next, in truth these countries have never been “granted” the ability to stop these crises. Iraq cannot exercise any sense of a sovereign foreign policy because of its reliance on US support, Lebanon cannot reform its banking sector without demands from the IMF, and Syria is unlikely to have a “successful” new revolution after al-Assad’s inhumane crushing of dissent.

If foreign powers are genuine about creating stability in the region, they would be best served by leaving the region to determine its own future. The US alone could make a significant contribution to local stability by following the will of the Iraqi people by withdrawing its forces. The US could also lift sanctions on Syria and Iran and allow Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to freely decide who it trades with.

Freedom to choose

Stability in the region will only materialize when local economies are allowed to grow, politicians are permitted to succeed, and nations can freely trade with one another. The only standard the West needs to follow, is the standard of national sovereignty that it sets for itself. Greater personal freedoms, religious tolerance, and gender equality all depend on rising living standards and the absence of fear and chaos.

By removing foreign influence from the region, the Levant and its neighbors could have a genuine shot at improving the lives of its citizens, unconstrained by the motivations and goals of nations thousands of miles away. As long as foreign powers freely meddle with the fate of millions of local people, the Levant and its neighbors will continue to spiral into further chaos, exactly as was intended.

Syrian Children Suffering Psychologically, Afraid to Go Home

After interviewing 170 children both in Syria and in refugee camps outside the war-torn country, Save the Children says Syrian chilren scared, suffer discrimination, and are afraid to go home. 

The report confirms long held fears within the international aid community that a whole generation of Syrian children have been lost to the country’s civil war — killed or maimed by the fighting, displaced from their homes, unable to access education, forced to grow up before their time, and psychologically damaged by the painful experience.  

The children’s charity found interviewees are severely traumatised by a number of factors – from living through the conflict, to being displaced, and now with Syria’s health system badly damaged, they have extremely limited access to the psychological help they so desperately need. 

“Displaced children have lost so much over the course of the conflict – their homes, friends and families, and their childhoods. It’s unacceptable that they now view the future as a source of fear, rather than hope,” said Save the Children’s Syria Country Director Sonia Khush on June 25. 

Scared to go home

For children living outside of Syria, the idea of returning is fraught with fear and anxiety. Although many are desperate to go “home,” parents report the idea is extremely stressful for their children, triggering “panic attacks, relentless feelings of fear, self-isolation, and bedwetting.” 

Sari* is among the children who reported being very stressed about their future in Syria. 

“I think about the army. Could I go and fight in a battle? Do I know what I am doing? You’re going to kill your cousin, a human. Why do I have to do that?” 

“We suffer from extreme racism in neighbourhoods and schools,” said 12 year old Fadi* who lives in a neighboring country after his family fled Aleppo. “It’s humiliating, making me feel that death in Syria would be easier for us than to stay in this place.”  

Reuters photographer Khalil Ashawi recently took portraits of nine Syrian children living in refugee camps, one for each year of the war, to mark World Refugee Day on June 20. He reported that, after living most of their lives in camp tents, the children old enough to talk did not have a clear sense of home anymore. 

“These kids don’t know the meaning of a home, some don’t know or have forgotten that a house has a wall and a door,” the Syrian photographer explained. 

Childhood ripped away 

For older children, like 16 year old Syrian refugee Safaa* who do remember their home, childhood memories combined with her current difficult living conditions, are a source of great sadness.  

“Living [here], I feel terrible,” Safaa* told Save the Children, as she began to cry, “I feel so much pain inside. We’re poor in a foreign country and I miss my country.”   

Unlike Safaa, 10-year old Dara* has been able to return to her bombed out home in Syria. She now sells toys in front of her destroyed house in Syria to try and make enough money to support her family.  

“I wish I could play with one of these toys, but I can’t. I sell them so we can live with that money.”

Dara, like many Syrian children, has been forced to assume an adult role and become the family breadwinner as her father is too disabled to work. Instead of playing with other children, forming important social bonds, and learning to read and write at school, Dara is shouldering a heavy burden that she does not have the psychological tools to cope with.  

Save the Children encountered many similar stories throughout the interview process, and found that aside from the initial severe distress of being forced to flee the bombs and bullets that destroyed their homes, the war in Syria has impacted every part of the children’s lives. 

Although clearly in need of psychological support, there is little to no chance any of the children will receive it from a health system crippled by conflict and camps that are underfunded, and overwhelmed. The OCHA estimates there is just one psychiatrist for every 250,000 people in Syria today, and psychosocial support mechanisms are also at breaking point, Save the Children says. 

Save the Children are calling on the international community to prioritize child mental health services at the upcoming Brussels Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region on June 29.  

“Syria’s children deserve better. As leaders gather in Brussels in the coming days, there is a real opportunity to ensure that children’s long-term mental health needs are prioritised and adequately funded. Together we can ensure that children have the help they need to feel safe and to look forward with hope,” Khush added.  

On March 6, when he announced the latest round of talks, European Union Vice-President Josep Borrell said the Brussels Conference’s “immediate concern is to work towards a lasting ceasefire across the country.”

The conference will also provide an opportunity for Syrian civil society actors to engage with donors, who are prepared to pledge further humanitarian and development support to Syrian, and neighboring countries. 

*names have been changed to protect children’s identities. 

Read also: France Repatriates 10 Children of ISIS Fighters From Syrian Camp

 

Turkey Hosts First International Migration Film Festival

Hosted by the Turkish Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the inaugural International Migration Film Festival was an opportunity to shine a light on the plight of refugees and the role of film in telling migrant stories. 

Turkey has an acute interest in the world’s response to the refugee crisis, being home to the largest number of refugees in the world. Estimated at approximately four million, Turkey’s refugee population includes 3.6 million people from neighboring Syria. 

The week-long festival was originally scheduled to take place in April in the city of Gaziantep, home to approximately 500,000 refugees. However, organizers moved it online due to the coronavirus crisis. From June 14-21, 45 films from 30 countries were available to stream online. 

The festival also comprised online masterclasses, which were open primarily to refugees and migrants, on the art of filmmaking and storytelling. Participants had the opportunity to learn from Bosnian director Danis Tanovic, Mexican producer and writer Michel Franco, and three time Oscar-winning British costume designer Sandy Powell. 

The festival’s Instagram featured talks by American actor and director Danny Glover, Iranian-American actor Shabab Hosseini, and American actor and director Matt Dillon. Regarding the festival’s vast offerings, director of programming Hulya Sungu said, “We hope to reach refugees around the world.”

Among the films featured at the festival were “For Sama,” the award-winning story of Waad al-Kateab’s life during the uprising in Aleppo and her family’s debates over whether to leave the city, and “Omar and Us,” the story of a retired Turkish Coast Guard captain who overcomes his prejudices to help his Syrian neighbors. 

Inaugural International Migration Film Festival winners 

“For Sama” won the award for Best Film with filmmaker al-Kateab, herself once a refugee in Turkey, advising audiences to watch the film to understand why refugees flee their homeland and the difficulties they face. 

Among the other films recognized at the festival were “Just Like My Son,” a story by Italian director Costanza Quatriglio that focuses on two brothers who escaped from Afghanistan for Europe, which won the Most Inspiring Script award, and “Children of the Shore” by Amelia Nanni, which won the UNICEF International Short Film award.

Nanni said the award encourages her to shoot her next film and she dedicated a share of her prize money to assisting creatives without access to support. She said, “I will share half of the price with other people, friends who do their arts in this crisis in a system where art is discredited and with friends in Belgium who don’t have the ‘right’ paper and passport to study there.” 

The full lineup and winners can be found on the festival website.  

France Repatriates 10 Children of ISIS Fighters From Syrian Camp

On Monday, the French Foreign Ministry announced it has brought another ten children of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters back to France, adding to the 18 repatriated since March 2019. 

In the June 22 communique, France thanked local authorities for their cooperation and said the children are now in the hands of French medical and security services. 

“France has carried out the return of ten French minors, orphans or humanitarian cases, who were in camps in northeast Syria,” said the press release from the foreign ministry. 

“These children have been turned over to French judicial authorities, are receiving medical treatment and have been taken in by social services,” the ministry added.

The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria foreign relations commission co-chair Abdulkarim Omar confirmed via Twitter that a French delegation took charge of the “orphaned and humanitarian cases” in the city of Qamishli.

The International Crisis Group says 13,500 foreign women and their children are living across three camps in northeast Syria, and 300 of them are believed to be French. 

The issue of repatriating children taken to or born into the Islamic State’s so-called “caliphate” in Syria is fraught with logistical and policy challenges.

Human rights campaigners argue the French and other foreign governments have a duty of care to the children of foreign fighters. According to activists and members of their extended families, France should repatriate minors immediately, removing them from the physical and psychological dangers they face in the camps. 

“It is eminently possible to repatriate these families, there is no practical barrier to it, all that is needed at the moment is the political will to do so,” Mat Tinkler, the director of international programs and policy at Save the Children, told The Guardian in February. 

Disease and malnutrition are rife in the makeshift refugee-cum-prison camps like the notorious Al Hul, aid agencies report. Three children drowned after a rare summer downpour hit a camp in Idlib on the weekend, destroying tents and possessions and highlighting the tenuous and dangerous position of children living in Syrian camps. 

The French government maintains that the children’s parents should be forced to face justice in Syria, and said children will continue to be repatriated on a case-by-case basis. 

Foreign governments have cited the logistical and security challenges of accessing the camps as reasons for not providing assistance to the children. The Australian government, for one, said it is not willing to risk the lives of soldiers or Department of Foreign Affairs staff to rescue “hardcore” terrorists who “have the potential and capacity to come back here and cause a mass casualty event.”

The pro-Kurdish authorities who run the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria where the camps are located have urged foreign countries to repatriate detainees as they do not have the resources to hold them indefinitely. 

They have also escorted a number of foreign citizens, mainly women in children, to neighboring Iraq to facilitate the repatriation process and reduce the risk of repatriation for foreign governments. 

Read also: Caesar Act Sanctions: Another Blow to Syria’s Collapsing Economy 

 

World Refugee Day: Refugees in Middle East Lack Support

More assistance is needed for vulnerable refugees in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, according to a statement by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). Marking World Refugee Day, on June 20, the aid group is calling for increased support for migrants, refugees, and internally displaced people who face multiple threats.

Refugees across the world already faced hunger, violence, and exploitation, but the COVID-19 pandemic has only worsened the fate of millions of refugees. The MENA region’s conflict zones in Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in increasingly widespread displacement as citizens try to escape war and starvation.

Refugees, migrants, and IDPs

Besides refugees, who are defined as having fled their country to escape persecution or war, there are Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) who are refugees in their home country, and migrants who flee extreme economic deprivation in search of a better life.

The division between the three definitions comes with some ambiguity as war, economic crises, and oppression often go hand-in-hand. Countries that are wary of taking in refugees have often portrayed these vulnerable people as fortune-seekers in search of better economic prospects.

Legal rights

Seeing refugees as motivated by economic reasons does not discount the fact that they have legal rights enshrined in our global consensus on human rights and humanitarian law. All human beings have the right to claim asylum in another country as part of Article 33 of the Geneva Convention on Refugees.

Refugees are also repeatedly denied the right to not experience inhuman and degrading treatment as described in Article 3 of the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms. And any human being officially has the right to leave any country, as stated in Article 13.2 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

COVID-19

Support for refugees is becoming more important than ever as the coronavirus pandemic presents another grave threat. The IFRC is now warning of the major impacts COVID-19 is having on already distraught refugees.

Francesco Rocca, president of the IFRC, stated that “COVID-19 is exacerbating the suffering of some of the world’s most vulnerable people. Many refugees were already living below the poverty line and struggling to make ends meet. Now they have lost the little income they earn, forcing them to cut down on basic resources including food and medicine.”

More help is needed, with catastrophe taking place in Yemen and Libya while many other countries in the region face economic problems that could lead to the continued daily growth of thousands of new refugees that add to a refugee population of 70.8 million people, according to the UNHCR.

UK, US, Spain Sign $26 Million Donor Aid Agreement With Jordan

The hard-hitting after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poorest and most vulnerable has prompted the international government aid agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain to band together to support stability in Jordan. 

On Thursday, US Aid Agency (USAID), UK Department for International Development (DFID), and Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) announced they, in partnership with Jordan’s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, were coming together to create a new multi-donor account. 

USAID said it will contribute $20 million to the fund, while the UK will give $6.17 million to the account that is to be administered by Jordan’s National Aid Fund (NAF).  

The British Ambassador to Jordan, Edward Oakden, noted, “In a crisis, it is so often the poorest and most vulnerable who are hardest hit.” The funds will help those most affected in the form of emergency cash and allowances to cover necessities like transportation and electricity through Jordan’s NAF. 

Preserving Jordanian resilience 

Jordan’s Minister for Planning and International Cooperation Wissam Rabadi welcomed the renewed support, saying it would help “further strengthen our national system and assist our efforts towards self-reliance.” 

“We are grateful to the Governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain for their generous and invaluable support towards this multi-donor account, which reflects a true understanding of the mounting challenges facing Jordan in light of regional crises, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Jordanian economy,” the minister said on June 18.

“The overarching purpose of this program is to expand and improve the poverty-targeted social assistance programs operated by the National Aid Fund and strengthen their ability to respond to emergencies, including the COVID-19 crisis, with the ultimate goal of alleviating the effects of poverty in Jordan. Moving forward, we aspire to further strengthen this partnership by encouraging other donors and international partners to join this effort,” Rabadi added.  

“No country can tackle the COVID-19 crisis alone,” the British ambassador said. “With this support, we are standing up together for the weakest in society, while also buttressing Jordan’s economic resilience.” 

The USAID Jordan Mission Director Jim Barnhart added that the new agreement was proof that even in moments of crisis, the international community should remain committed to ensuring partners like Jordan are strengthened with ongoing assistance.

“The joint financing arrangement for the National Aid Fund establishes the third such multi-donor fund that accelerates Jordan’s path toward self-reliance by working through the Jordanian governmental system,” Barnhart tweeted after the announcement. 

“We are devoting our efforts to joining common initiatives like this one, based on solidarity and aligning resources behind Jordan’s leadership in order to achieve a real impact,” he added.  

The Spanish Ambassador to Jordan, Aranzazu Banon Davalos, hailed the collaborative and local-led nature of the new agreement, saying, “We are devoting our efforts to joining common initiatives like this one, based on solidarity and aligning resources behind Jordan’s leadership in order to achieve a real impact.” 

“Spain, as part of the EU, and as a close and committed partner to Jordan firmly believes that working together with other donors and the Government of Jordan is the best way forward in order to be successful in the common endeavor to overcome the crisis leaving no one behind,” the Spanish Ambassador added.  

Jordan borders Syria, Iraq, and Israel and has become a mecca for people fleeing violence and economic upheaval in its region. It now hosts 750,000 refugees, the second-highest number in the world in comparison to its population. 

Although relatively economically resilient compared to many of its neighbors, like all countries worldwide, its economy has taken a dive due to COVID-19. 

The latest injection of American, British, and Spanish funds demonstrates the international community’s keen interest in ensuring Jordan remains a beacon of political and economic stability in a troubled part of the Middle East. 

Read also: Inside a Drastic Lockdown : Living and Working through Confinement in Jordan

 

 

UNHCR: Staggering 79.5 Million People Currently Displaced

Based on the UN’s figures, nearly one percent of the global population was displaced at the end of 2019, a grim milestone that UNHCR High Commissioner Filippo Grandi laments. 

“This almost 80 million figure – the highest that UNHCR has recorded since these statistics have been systematically collected, is of course a reason for great concern,” Grandi said on June 18. 

According to the UNHCR, the majority of the world’s asylum seekers, refugees and internally displaced persons come from just five countries — Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan, South Sudan, and Myanmar.  

“If crises in these countries were solved, 68 per cent of global forced displacement would be on its way to being solved,” the UN refugee chief said. 

Last year, an additional 11 million people were pushed out of their homes by violence, persecution, political unrest, famine, climate change, and other disasters. In the wake of COVID-19, the entrenched nature of conflicts in places like Syria and Afghanistan, and “insufficient political solutions,” Grandi warns, “we don’t see this trend diminishing.” 

“With the international community so divided, so unable, so incapable of making peace, unfortunately the situation won’t stop growing, and I am very worried that next year it will be even worse than this year,” he told the French Press Agency (AFP) on Thursday.

Poor Countries Bearing the Brunt of Global Problem 

Grandi criticised the rhetoric often used by rich countries that welcoming displaced people affects all countries equally, and shot-down the “politicised misconception” that they are most likely to seek refuge in wealthy countries far from home.   

“This continues to be a global issue, an issue for all States, but one that challenges most directly the poorer countries – not the richer countries – in spite of the rhetoric,” he said. 

The UNHCR data shows poor countries host 85% of the nearly 80 million displaced people worldwide, with 73% of those ‘on the move,’ seeking shelter in a neighbouring country. 

Burkina Faso, in the troubled Sahel region, has long welcomed those fleeing violence in neighbouring Mali and Niger, but since 2016, has itself become a worrying hotspot for violence and, as a result, displacement.  

“Nothing prepared me for what I saw in Burkina Faso… I was particularly struck by the plight of so many women who had suffered violence, whose husbands had been taken away from them or killed, whose children had been separated from them,” Grandi told France24 after visiting the country in February 2020. 

Armed groups, extremists and criminal gangs have taken advantage of weak governments, poverty, and local ethnic tensions to rain terror across Burkina Faso, and particularly in the lawless borderlands between the three countries home to refugee camps.  

As a result, some of the 25 000 Malian refugees seeking safety in Burkina Faso have returned home to areas so dangerous, humanitarian and defence forces can’t enter them. Meanwhile more than 800 000 Burkinabeè are now believed to be displaced in their own country. The government of Burkina Faso, also one of the world’s poorest, is grappling to deal with the scale of the humanitarian crisis and many displaced people are still sleeping outdoors, and going hungry while still living with the severe trauma of the violence inflicted upon them.

Read also: Mediterranean Claims 20 More Migrant Lives Off Tunisian Coast

MENA Region Faces Wave of Post-Lockdown Protests

Citizens of several countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have taken to the streets following the easing of COVID-19 measures. Citizens are demanding action from their governments after having adhered to painful lockdowns and curfews that brought severe economic hardship.

In Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Tunisia, large protests have emerged over the last week as citizens call upon government officials to ease their suffering. While COVID-19 fears begin to wane, a new focus on structural poverty and inefficient government is emerging across the region as protesters express their discontent.

Lebanon

The Lebanese military arrested dozens of protesters on Monday, June 15, for alleged acts of vandalism. Protesters expressed their frustration with skyrocketing inflation amid a spiraling currency crisis, while the indebted nation struggles to balance its debt obligations with popular demands for a significant increase in living conditions.

After nearly two months of empty streets, economic deprivation, and fear of the coronavirus, the Lebanese people have returned to the streets to protest the lack of solutions offered by the government of Hassan Diab. Banks and shops were attacked as Lebanese people grow more desperate, even as new sanctions on neighboring country Syria are likely to further damage Lebanon’s economy.

Iraq

Newly inaugurated prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s “honeymoon phase” in government has ended quickly as increasing austerity measures are sparking furious protests. Monthly pensions were hit by a drop in oil-revenue that is forcing the government to take unpopular measures. Nearly one million Iraqis depend on their pension each month and this month the $920 pension was more than $100 short, according to France24.

The Iraqi government has introduced several ambitious reform plans, but a dramatic fall in government revenue as a result of cratered oil prices and production cuts has meant introducing painful cuts to public sector salaries and pensions. Public sector employment has served as a method to appease Iraqis since the 2003 US invasion, but falling state oil revenues have now undermined this strategy.

Syria

Syria has seen few large protests since the 2011 pro-democracy protests that started a civil war. But protests again emerged over the rise in prices of basic necessities, a doubling in food prices and continued corruption in government. The city of Druze saw four days of intense protests as the Syrian Pound continues to fall dramatically in value.

The protesters are unlikely to see a swift resolution to their concerns as the “Caesar Act,” a new round of US sanctions targeting Syria, is set to heavily impact the last remaining economic activity that has sustained the country’s flailing economy. With an apparent consolidation of power ongoing in Damascus that has gone public, Bashar al-Assad’s regime is facing renewed pressure from all sides.

Tunisia

Protests have emerged in at least seven Tunisian cities, Reuters reported on Thursday, June 18. Unemployed and economically deprived people across the country protested what they considered government inaction in the face of a continued economic crisis. University graduates shouted “we need jobs” in Gafsa and hundreds protested in Hajeb el Ayoun and Sidi Bouzid.

The Tunisian tourism sector has suffered an unprecedented crisis after COVID-19 measures closed borders and shut the industry that provides 10% of state revenue. After a decade of high inflation and unemployment, Tunisians now call for an increased focus on jobs by protesting and even halting the country’s phosphate production through sit-ins.

A new era

The current protests across the MENA-region are likely only the beginning of popular unrest in the region, with global institutes like the IMF predicting that local economies will suffer from post-lockdown economic woes for some time to come. Protests against corruption and ineffective government appear to be supported by data, and the World Bank has called for greater transparency from MENA-governments.

As global oil prices continue to be volatile, supported by painful production cuts, revenue will likely remain impacted in many oil-dependent MENA-countries. With structural economic issues in many countries, unemployment and poverty are likely to worsen in the months ahead, as the region braces itself for a new era of popular discontent.

France Finds Syria’s Rifaat al-Assad Guilty of Money Laundering

On June 17, a French court found Rifaat al-Assad, the 82-year-old brother of former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, guilty of money laundering. The judiciary  sentenced him to four years in prison and he will have all his French and London-based properties seized after he used Syrian state funds to purchase the real estate.

Court case

According to the court documents, between 1984 and 2016, al-Assad acquired property in some of France’s most prestigious neighborhoods and amassed a fortune of roughly $113 million. The French court established that much of al-Assad’s wealth came from Syria, even as he himself claims the Saudi king had offered the fortune as a gift.

Spanish authorities, in a 2017 anti-money laundering operation, seized 500 of his properties estimated to be worth roughly $785 million.

Al-Assad will appeal the sentencing and will not enter detention until his appeal has been processed. Bashar al-Assad’s uncle was also ordered to pay $33,680 to Sherpa and Transparency International France, the two anti-corruption NGOs that first brought al-Assad’s practices to the attention of the French court in 2013.

Sherpa’s lawyer, Vincent Brengarth, told Reuters that “this ruling shows that nobody escapes justice and there is no impunity.”

Rifaat’s past

Rifaat al-Assad was listed as Syria’s vice president until 1998, but lost most practical political power after being accused of a 1984 coup attempt when his brother, Hafez al-Assad, was suffering from heart problems. The Assad-aligned Alawites had been excluded from a council entrusted with ruling Syria, leading some high-ranking officers to throw their support behind the president’s brother, Rifaat.

Rifaat al-Assad led an army of 55,000 to take control of Damascus and disarm Syrian troops but Hafez used his seniority in the Assad family and his recovery to force Rifaat and his allies to abandon the coup attempt. According to News Arabia, Rifaat left for exile with $300 million of Syrian state funds, which he later claimed was a gift from the then-crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Prince Abdullah.

Palace intrigue

Similar to the current palace intrigue over the Makhlouf family, Rifaat had access to state funds through the business empire of his son, Sumer. Like Rami Makhlouf, Sumer was part of the business elite that ensured the Assad family received a cut of all economic activity in the country.

When Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father in 2000, Rifaat positioned himself as the logical successor to the Syrian presidency after having held the vice presidency for decades. But his claims while exiled in France produced no significant opposition to Bashar, who ascended to the presidency as their father had intended.

Rifaat became known as the “butcher of Hama” for his part in the bombardment of Hama, where thousands of civilians died. He had called for Bashar to step down during the Syrian civil war but his little remaining influence proved to be insufficient to achieve his objective.

Caesar Act Sanctions: Another Blow to Syria’s Collapsing Economy

The US and European Union’s latest round of sanctions, known as the “Caesar Act,” aims to cut Bashar Al Assad’s final foreign economic lifelines. 

Lawmakers passed the  legislation in December 2019 but it came into force today, June 17. They named the act in honor a military photographer codenamed “Caesar” who infiltrated Syrian jails where he took over 50,000 photos of torture and death.  

The sanctions are meant to “compel the government of Bashar al-Assad to halt its murderous attacks on the Syrian people and to support a transition to a government in Syria that respects the rule of law, human rights, and peaceful co-existence with its neighbours.” 

In reality, Syria’s economy is in dire straits. The currency has crashed in the wake of the impending sanctions, driving up the cost of living for ordinary citizens while the regime continues unphased. 

An estimated 80% of Syrians were already living below the poverty line prior to the recent economic decline, which has only intensified their struggle. Their situation is so distressing that thousands of Syrians took a huge risk, returning to the streets for the first time since 2011 to protest the worsening conditions in towns like Suweida, Daraa, and Idlib. 

UN envoy’s report

In his latest briefing to the UN Security Council, UN Special Envoy on Syria Geir Pederson reported that the Syrian pound has depreciated at lightning speed, driving up food and medicine prices and disrupting supply chains.  

“I heard a new level of alarm at the dramatic collapse in economic conditions throughout the country. It is easy to understand why,” Pederson told the Security Council. “During just one week during the reporting period, the Syrian lira’s market rate depreciated more than in the entire nine years prior.” 

“The economic crisis is hitting every part of Syria, regardless of territorial control: from Damascus and the southwest … to Aleppo and the northwest … and to the northeast,” the UN envoy explained.  

The devastating financial and political crisis in Lebanon is one factor that has driven its “twin” economy in neighboring Syria into a spiral of decline, Pederson said. The collapse is also gaining momentum from the fallout from the country’s civil war, long-running structural issues with the economy like poor governance and corruption, the COVID-19 pandemic, and now the Caesar Act. 

“In recent weeks, we have seen many Syrians begin to express new fears – even panic in some quarters. We have heard of shops and pharmacies forced to close, unable to cope with the recent volatility; of jobs being lost; of remittances drying up. In some areas of northwest Syria, reports have emerged of locals increasingly using foreign currencies,” Pederson said. 

The new sanctions effectively penalise any country that does business with any company in Syria. As a result, they cut off the few trade ties Syria has left with its primary trading partner Lebanon, for one – but also with European and Gulf States. 

UNSC response

Security Council permanent members Russian and China spoke out against the sanctions on June 16.  

China called the move to forge ahead with the Caesar Act in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing global and economic crisis, “simply inhumane.”

Meanwhile Russia, who supports the Assad regime, told the Security Council “that the purpose of these measures is to overthrow the legitimate authorities in Syria.”

The US has been imposing sanctions on Syria since 1979, and gradually ratcheted up the restrictions since civil war broke out in 2011. Nine years on, they have had minimal effect on Assad, and failed to trigger the downfall of his bloody dictatorship. 

Sanctions have proven ineffective time and time again and, often missing their target, devastate the lives of the everyday citizens they are supposed to be helping. 

It is unlikely the Caesar Act will be any different or achieve the regime change it so boldly hopes to bring about, and instead will be the catalyst for more pain and suffering for the Syrian people.

Read also: Syrians Brace for Looming Sanctions