Tag: us

US Official: Iran’s Arrest Warrant for Trump is a ‘Propaganda Stunt’

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US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said at a press conference in Saudi Arabia on Monday that Iran’s arrest warrant for President Donald Trump and 35 other people in connection with the killing of prominent military commander Qassem Soleimani was just a “propaganda stunt.”

Iran issued on Monday what it said was an “arrest warrant” against US President Donald Trump and dozens of others believed to have been involved in the drone attack that killed Soleimani in Iraq on January 3. 

The Iranian Fars News Agency reported on June 29 that Tehran asked the International Police (Interpol) for assistance in detaining the accused.

Standing next to the Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs, Hook said: “Our assessment is that Interpol does not interfere by issuing red flyers based on requests of a political nature.”

“This is a matter of political nature, and has nothing to do with national security, world peace or the promotion of stability … It is a propaganda ploy that no one takes seriously,” he added.

Interpol later responded to Tehran, saying it “would not consider requests of this nature.” The organization added in a statement that its guidelines prohibit “any interference or activities of a political nature.”

On January 3, 2020, an American drone strike in Iraq killed Soleimani, the commander of the Qods Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Washington had accused Soleimani of masterminding attacks by armed factions allied with Iran on American forces in the region.

Iran, however, deemed the extrajudicial killing an act of “terrorism and murder,” and retaliated by striking a US military base in Iraq. Tensions have since been running high in the region.

 

Read also: Iran to Execute Spy Who Gave Soleimani’s Location to US

Trump in Hot Water Over ‘White Power’ Tweet

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In the wake of a massive backlash, US President Trump deleted a Twitter video he posted on Sunday featuring a supporter chanting “white power” at anti-Trump protestors. 

Someone one the scene took the video during Trump’s campaign visit to “The Villages,” a retirement community in Florida. The Republican president retweeted the video at 7:30 a.m. on June 28. In the first seconds of the clip, a man driving a gulf buggy emblazoned with “Trump 2020” and “America First” signs can be heard screaming “white power” at a counter-protestor holding a “Make America Sane” placard. 

Trump captioned the video, originally posted by an unidentified user, “thank you to the great people of The Villages. The Radical Left Do Nothing Democrats will Fall in the Fall. Corrupt Joe [Biden] is shot. See you soon!!!”

The tweet comes at a time when the United States’ explosive Black Lives Matter protests and movement has massive momentum, and racial tensions in America are running high in the wake of George Floyd’s death.  

Trump’s implied endorsement of a white supremacist slogan triggered an overwhelming wave of negative backlash and by 11:00 a.m. the video was deleted from Trump’s twitter feed. 

American response

People from both sides of America’s political divide united in their criticism of the tweet. Black Republican South Carolina Senator Tim Scott labelled the tweet “indefensible,” telling CNN, “he [Trump] should not have retweeted.”

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden responded on Twitter on June 28 saying, “Today the President shared a video of people shouting ‘white power’ and said they were ‘great.’ Just like he did after Charlottesville” — a reference to a 2017 Trump tweet where he referred to neo-Nazis as “very fine people.”   

“We’re in a battle for the soul of the nation — and the President has picked a side. But make no mistake: it’s a battle we will win,” he added. 

Biden followed up those comments on Monday declaring, “white supremacy should be rooted out and relegated to the pages of history — not promoted by the President of the United States.” 

The White House responded to the incendiary tweet with a statement that failed to apologize, instead claiming Trump did not hear the “white power” comment. 

“President Trump is a big fan of The Villages. He did not hear the one statement made on the video,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Judd Deere said in a statement.  

“What he did see was tremendous enthusiasm from his many supporters.” 

Health Secretary Alex Azar also jumped to the president’s defense during a CNN interview saying that although he had not seen the tweet in question, “obviously neither the President, his administration nor I would do anything to be supportive of white supremacy or anything that would support discrimination of any kind.”

Read also: US Sees New COVID-19 Peak, Trump Aims to Cut Testing

Rising Neo-Nationalism Threatens Social, Economic Progress Worldwide

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Nationalism is on the rise worldwide. A new form of nationalism has emerged in the last decade that pits nativists, xenophobes, and populists against an increasingly globalized world. “Neo-nationalism” as the trend has become known is leading to increasing belligerence between nations and an uninformed suspicion of the “other” that could lead to far-reaching international confrontation.

Three countries exemplify this trend like none other, with deepening consequences to their national reputation and diplomatic standing in the world. India’s Hindu nationalism is leading to an economic boycott of its most important trade partner, the disastrous pandemic response in the US is diminishing its standing, and Israeli nationalism is bringing it ever closer to annexation.

US nationalism meets COVID-19

For decades US politicians have considered their country to be the best of all, solely based on GDP and military might. Even though the US slipped in important metrics, including education and healthcare, it remained a taboo for politicians to declare the US anything but number one. The US is now not even in the top 10 in most fields that would be considered to be signs of “being the best.”

The US now ranks 27th in education in health, down from 6th place in the 1990s. The country is the 19th happiest country, and the 42nd most corrupt. The country is now the 27th in social mobility, which means that there are 26 countries where citizens are more likely to achieve the “American Dream,” or work their way up from poor to rich.

But amid this collapse of living standard and public services, amid a crumbling infrastructure that needs $4.5 trillion worth of repairs and maintenance before 2025, American nationalism has maintained the fiction that the US is the best country in the world. This mistaken analysis was evident in its approach to COVID-19 that has now cost 125,318 American lives.

The US has considered its privatized and decentralized healthcare system more than capable of resisting a shock that caused much more accessible healthcare systems in Western Europe to tremble. The country’s misplaced nationalism meant little extra effort was mobilized even as evidence of the pandemic’s severity emerged from Europe, leading to a disastrous and deadly failed response that has severely diminished the US’ standing in the world.

Israeli annexation fueled by nationalism

There are few people in the world as familiar with the dangers of unfettered nationalism than the Jewish diaspora. The rise of nationalism in Europe led to increasing antisemitism that concluded in the barbarous mass murder of millions of innocent Jewish people. But history is doomed to repeat itself as Israeli hardliners now fuel a similar type of nationalism within their own nation.

Far-right media continuously turn the native Palestinians into a dangerous “other” and push the country further right. Israeli neo-nationalism is visible on a daily basis in publications such as the Netanyahu-aligned newspaper Israel Hayom, and more mainstream publications such as the Jerusalem Post or the Times of Israel regularly feature highly problematic opinion pieces.

One feature of neo-nationalism that is visible from Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban to Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro is the rapid mainstreaming of nationalist thinking. By employing marketing strategies and exploiting social media, neo-nationalists create a world of alternative facts for their supporters.

The world of alternative facts has turned UN-declared illegal settlers into “brave pioneers” and oppressed native people into “dangerous terrorists.” iI has turned the country’s nationalists against the United Nations, through which Israel was founded in the first place. Now misplaced nationalist zeal could lead Israel to commit a blatant violation of international norms and turn itself into a global pariah as nationalists urge Netanyahu to go further and annex even more Palestinian land.

Indian radical nationalism

India’s Hindu nationalists are transforming their country away from the legacy of Gandhi and Nehru and into a dangerously volatile chaos of misinformation, mob violence, and an increasing war fervor against neighboring China. India’s media has enthusiastically whipped up resentment and even violence against local minorities, blamed COVID-19 on local Muslims, and framed an undisciplined scuffle between border troops as a casus belli.

Indian neo-nationalism is likely the most entrenched form of the trend found globally. Mainstream politicians, news reporting, and the government itself continuously misinform and manipulate public frustrations.

The rise of mainstream nationalist fervor could be seen in Indian Prime Minister Nahendra Modi’s 2019 electoral campaign. After his first successful campaign focused on economic development, whipping up nationalism proved easier to deliver. “We were nationalist, we are nationalists and we will remain nationalists,” he said in a campaign speech.

Similar to neo-nationalism in Israel and the US, Indian nationalism is producing a dangerous feedback loop that could turn disastrous.

When a hand-to-hand fight between a few dozen Chinese and Indian border troops led to casualties, there was no critical media left to see the event as what it was. Troops showing poor discipline that should have been court-martialed instead became national martyrs as ill informed masses cried for war against a country with a far superior military and economy.

Divide and conquer

In the end neo-nationalism serves but one purpose: It masks the negative effects our global neoliberal economics have on the poor and middle classes and instead pitches them against each other. By fueling resentment and hatred of the “other,” neoliberal leaders such as Modi, Netanyahu, and Trump can hide the continuous wealth transfer from the poor and working classes to the rich.

Misinformed working-class Indians, Israelis, and Americans have much more in common with those who they are manipulated into hating, than the millionaires and politicians that foment this discord. Neo-nationalism has become the favored approach by politicians who can no longer promise economic development through neoliberalism, as that theory has again and again been roundly disproved.

“Divide and conquer” appears to be the political mantra of our era, with potentially disastrous consequences for us all.

Saudi Arabia Uses Warning Shots to Rebuff Iranian Boats

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Three Iranian boats sailing in arch-rival Saudi Arabia’s waters ignored warnings and refused to respond to Border Guards instructions on June 25, the state-run Saudi Press Agency reported on Saturday night.  

“On Thursday, Maritime Border Guard patrols detected three Iranian boats that entered Saudi waters. They were immediately followed, and repeated warnings were issued for them to stop, but they refused to respond,” said an official spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s border Guards. 

Saudi coast guard vessels eventually chased away the Iranian boats, reporting that they “fired warning shots, forcing the Iranian boats to retreat,” in line with official protocol.

 Iranian state media has responded, claiming the boasts contained innocent fishermen on a 10-day trip, who were not hurt in the confrontation with the Saudi coast guard.  

Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia have been locked in a bitter struggle for regional religious and military supremacy for decades. Both countries have taken advantage of civil conflicts in Yemen and Syria, for example, and turned them into proxy wars in an attempt to expand their influence.

Maritime tensions have been running high in the Arabian Gulf for months, fuelled primarily by incidents between the US Navy and Iranian vessels. The US and Saudi Arabia have previously discussed maritime security cooperation and the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. 

On April 22, US President Donald Trump shared a tweet saying, “I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.” He published the message hours after Iranian media reported the IRGC had successfully launched a defense satellite into orbit. 

A day later, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) chief responded by instructing his forces to follow suit. 

“I have ordered our naval forces to destroy any American terrorist force in the Persian Gulf that threatens [the] security of Iran’s military or non-military ships,” IRGC Major General Hossein Salami said on April 23. 

Tensions have run high between the US and Iran ever since President Trump unilaterally pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 and re-imposed economic sanctions on the rogue nuclear state. The relationship has grown more fractious in recent months after a US drone strike killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in January, and retaliatory Iranian airstrikes on an Iraqi base injured US troops. 

Read also: Maryam Shojaei Awarded for Efforts Supporting Iran’s Female Soccer Fans

Egypt Takes $5.2 Billion IMF Loan to Support Economy

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The International Monetary Fund in Washington DC has approved Cairo’s request for a $5.2 billion one-year loan. The loan that will have to be repaid within a year adds to a separate $2.77 billion package of “emergency support” granted to Egypt on May 11, to assist the country in its struggle to stop its COVID-19 epidemic.

The IMF considers Egypt to be somewhat of a pre-coronavirus success story as it complied with IMF demands for increased privatization, cutting public spending, and deregulation of industry. In May, an IMF statement said, “as the crisis abates, measures to lower the debt level would need to resume along with continued implementation of structural reforms to increase the role of the private sector.”

Egypt-IMF relationship

But the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on tourism, global trade and oil prices has significantly impacted Egypt’s economy. Egypt relies heavily on revenues from its hotels and resorts on the Red Sea as well as tourism to its historic landmarks. Reductions in global trade have meant Egyptian state coffers see shipping fees from its vital Suez Canal reduced significantly while oil and gas revenues from Egypt’s growing energy sector similarly fell dramatically.

The fact that Egypt had recently completed a three-year economic reform plan as part of a $12 billion IMF loan that concluded in 2019 appears to have done little for the country’s economic resilience, but further austerity and privatization would eventually produce better results, according to the Fund.

Foreign priorities

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi had received praise from his Western backers and international bankers for implementing unpopular austerity measures that caused a dramatic rise in prices for essential goods for poor and middle class Egyptians, including a large increase in the price of electricity and drinking water. But the moves have helped “attract foreign investment,” justifying praise from the Egyptian government’s financiers.

Egypt’s transition to the neoliberal economy that foreign powers mandate has done little to produce an effective COVID-19 response. Like other countries that follow this economic mantra, such as Brazil, the US, the UK and India, COVID-19 cases have exploded with little government assistance to the country’s poorest and most vulnerable communities.

Local suffering

Egypt’s government has distributed monthly assistance of $31 for informal workers, who make up a significant section of those working in its hospitality industry. The limited support for Egyptian citizens has seen 73% of Egyptian households report a decline in their incomes over the past months.

Like Brazil, the US, and the UK, Egypt is now rushing to reopen its economy, even though it recorded 1,625 new cases on June 26, with 62,755 total confirmed cases and 2,620 deaths. The necessity to bring in revenue appears to have outweighed any desire to control the local epidemic as hygiene standards and social distancing are seen as sufficient to again receive foreign tourists.

Egyptian citizens will have to again brace for austerity measures that cut government support for the poor and increase the cost of living, while the government hopes that this time, the IMF’s demands will produce the “resilient” economy that its financiers have repeatedly promised.

World Struggles to Stand Against Israeli Annexation

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With less than a week until Israeli annexation plans could feasibly commence, countries around the world are expressing very different reactions to Israel’s intended moves. The responses have been varied as global alliances, religious convictions, and economic factors weigh on nations’ willingness to risk conflict with Israel and its powerful ally in Washington.

While few nations have expressed outright support for the clear violation of international law, the rhetoric employed by those in opposition indicates that few are willing to position themselves as “anti-Israeli” or risk the ire of our global hegemon. That annexation would risk the local peace progress is nothing but a statement of simple fact, but most world leaders are reluctant to venture beyond restating this.

The EU

European leaders have received Israel’s annexation plans with much bombastic diplomatic language, but have been reluctant to make any threats if Israel proceeds with its planned violation of international law.

Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, traveled to Israel to discuss the matter, but even before departure had to admit he would offer no practical threat that could provide an incentive for Israel to halt its plans.

Over 1,000 parliamentarians have since signed a letter opposing Israel’s planned annexation, but the letter does little more than express “serious concerns” or highlight the “destabilizing potential” of Israel’s publicly stated intention to break international conventions on warfare, the Charter of the United Nations, and the basic premise of national sovereignty.

The US

In the US wide-spread political support for Israel has led to fragmented partisan splits on the issue. While many politicians have spoken out against annexation, the language used reveals much more concern about implications for Israel’s security than the well being of “annexed” Palestinians.

Their entire concept of an “agreed upon” annexation according to an unsigned peace plan originates from diplomatic novice Jared Kushner’s heavily criticized proposal. Much of the US press has opposed annexation but has done so primarily from a perspective that focuses on Israeli security.

Many have claimed that the annexation plans, and their timing, are a direct Trump ploy to create a new narrative before the US presidential elections in November 2020.

Arab nations

The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League have condemned annexation plans and endorsed the establishment of an independent Palestine. However, other than highlighting the obvious breaches of international law, the Arab world has so far not shown a united front against a possible expansion of Israeli land at the expense of Palestinians.

Only Jordan has posed a clear ultimatum to Israel by threatening war. Jordan is highly dependent on the US and fears its possible retaliation, just like many Arab states, but stands alone in offering a practical disincentive to Israel’s plans. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent the director of the Israeli secret service to Amman last week with a message for Jordan’s King Abdullah II. Whether Israel can force Jordan to renege on its commitment remains to be seen.

Israeli Settlers

People living in Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories generally oppose annexation plans. Even though many of these settlements would become part of Israel following annexation, settlers fear the plan does not go far enough and would create momentum for the establishment of a small, fragmented Palestinian state, which they categorically oppose.

Billboards along Israeli highways feature Hebrew slogans urging Netanyahu to “do it right,” calling on him to annex all of what remains of Palestinian land. While annexation of more land than included in the Trump “peace plan” would be controversial, it would be no more illegal than Israel’s current plans.

Palestinians

For Palestinians, especially those living in the occupied territories, annexation is simply an inevitable reality. “These areas are already [as good as] annexed… It’s all in their hands” a farmer in the West Bank told the BBC. But many Palestinians see the looming annexation as the logical next step in the decades-long Israeli encroachment on Palestinian territory.

Israel has intensified evictions of Palestinians in the Jordan Valley and locals see annexation as inevitable. “Everyone is scared about annexation, no one wants to live under the occupation’s law,” Palestinian activist Sami Hureini told Al Jazeera, as locals appear to have no illusions over Israeli intentions.

The UN

On June 24, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres joined in the growing chorus of voices opposing annexation rhetorically. “We are at a watershed moment,” Guterres told the UN Security Council (UNSC), saying, “If implemented, annexation would constitute a most serious violation of international law.”

But the head of the UN is as powerless to stop Israel as those living in the occupied territories. As long as Israel proceeds with the blessing of the US, international law is of little consequence.  The power of the US alone could prevent any strong response against annexation.

The crisis over Israeli annexation has revealed once again that we are all living under American hegemony that in practice can supersede international law, the UN, and the will of the rest of the globe. Underneath political posturing, angry letters, and formal diplomacy, all nations continue to tremble at the prospect of angering the US.

Economic Woes Could Trigger New Levant Conflict

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When the militant extremists of ISIS started occupying territory in 2013, Iraq and Syria seemingly became the center of the world. Camera-crews from around the world reported breathlessly on each small town where black-clad men in pick-up trucks were advancing. Cities like Mosul, Raqqa and Palmyra became common features in news items as each small conquest was widely shared.

But in 2020, it seems very few still care about the region. Camera-crews have moved on and politicians have found new enemies to worry about. The reporting in the region does garnish is a stream of negative news. Financial crises, the impact of COVID-19, rising bread prices, it appears the region just cannot catch a break from misery.

Countries like Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria face multiple crises at once, with far-reaching consequences for neighboring countries and the region as a whole. What seems like an uncommonly troubled region where misery appears to simply compound and evolve, is largely a strategy of orchestrated and controlled chaos at the behest of foreign powers and institutions.

Hyperinflation

Comments on “hyperinflation” are becoming more common in reports on Syria and Lebanon, as extreme inflation causes prices for basic necessities to skyrocket amid stagnant or diminishing wages. Hyperinflation has sparked renewed protests in Syria, unseen since Bashar al-Assad and Russia reasserted control over the country through a brutal military campaign.

In Lebanon protests have again rocked the country, with much of the ire aimed at the country’s banking sector and the Lebanese central bank itself. A crisis of institutionalized corruption and sectarianism have intertwined with the country’s dwindling foreign currency reserves and the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic to create a “perfect storm” of troubles for the Lebanese.

Austerity

In response to a historic drop in oil demand, oil prices have tumbled to levels that no expert could have predicted at the start of the year. For countries in the region, the drop in state revenue leaves large gaps in their national budget amid an increase of costs for the healthcare sector and much needed basic support for the poorest and most vulnerable.

In order to find funds abroad, countries like Lebanon and Iraq face increasing pressures from global institutions to reform their countries in order to cut public spending, boost the private sector and increase foreign direct investment. Receiving loans from institutions like the World Bank and the IMF means bending domestic policy to align with foreign visions and implementing unpopular reforms.

Sanctions

Then there are ever increasing sanctions that further weaken local economies. The US targets the leadership of Syria by halting most international trade, including from its destitute neighbor Lebanon. Washington similarly limits Iraq’s ability to buy much needed energy from its neighbor Iran, with the US issuing “waivers” that allow Iraq to import Iranian electricity.

Iran itself is facing crippling sanctions that have turned a health crisis into an unmitigated human tragedy, as the country continues to have the life squeezed out of its last remaining international trade. Iran has faced severe medical shortages and faced major barriers to importing much needed protective equipment and medicine, making the spread of COVID-19 in the entire region more likely.

Misery by Design

While hyperinflation, austerity, and sanctions continue to make an impact on citizens’ lives in the region, none of these are accidental byproducts, but instead are very much the intended goal. Financial support only comes when nations submit to the “Washington Consensus,” turning their countries into neoliberal countries rife for exploitation by foreign multinationals.

Sanctions and hyperinflation are similarly highly related to foreign influence. Sanctions on Syria intend not just to hurt its leadership but actively intend to starve the people of Syria and Lebanon into revolt against its leaders. US officials regularly regurgitate their belief that economic hardship for citizens will lead to a popular uprising that will replace elements of the government that the US does not like.

Sovereignty

While it appears that countries in the region roll from one crisis to the next, in truth these countries have never been “granted” the ability to stop these crises. Iraq cannot exercise any sense of a sovereign foreign policy because of its reliance on US support, Lebanon cannot reform its banking sector without demands from the IMF, and Syria is unlikely to have a “successful” new revolution after al-Assad’s inhumane crushing of dissent.

If foreign powers are genuine about creating stability in the region, they would be best served by leaving the region to determine its own future. The US alone could make a significant contribution to local stability by following the will of the Iraqi people by withdrawing its forces. The US could also lift sanctions on Syria and Iran and allow Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to freely decide who it trades with.

Freedom to choose

Stability in the region will only materialize when local economies are allowed to grow, politicians are permitted to succeed, and nations can freely trade with one another. The only standard the West needs to follow, is the standard of national sovereignty that it sets for itself. Greater personal freedoms, religious tolerance, and gender equality all depend on rising living standards and the absence of fear and chaos.

By removing foreign influence from the region, the Levant and its neighbors could have a genuine shot at improving the lives of its citizens, unconstrained by the motivations and goals of nations thousands of miles away. As long as foreign powers freely meddle with the fate of millions of local people, the Levant and its neighbors will continue to spiral into further chaos, exactly as was intended.

US Reduces Forces in Afghanistan to 8,600

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The United States had reduced its forces in Afghanistan to 8,600, Marine General Frank McKenzie reported on June 18. The significant draw-down of military forces comes as part of a US-Taliban agreement signed in February that intends to reduce US involvement in the country. The deal requires a full withdrawal of US military forces by May 2021 as the Afghan government negotiates its own agreement with the Taliban.

Barriers to peace

“The war has no winner. All of us are losers in a war. The winner of peace will be the people of Afghanistan and our neighbors,” Afghan President Ashraf Ghani told the Atlantic Council on June 11 as the conflict Afghanistan enters a new phase. But questions remain over the potential success of negotiations between Taliban and the government, which is losing power because of the US withdrawal and cuts of roughly $1 billion in US support.

“Devastated and ravaged by war, Afghanistan has continually suffered due to weak political dispensations and inadequate state resources, mainly due to infighting among the rulers of Afghanistan,” Ghani told the Atlantic Council.

Conditions

While the US has now met its conditions of the agreement, the Afghan government’s reluctance to release the “most dangerous” Taliban prisoners has received support from the government’s western partners, potentially endangering future peace talks. “There are some dangerous Taliban fighters named in the list, and releasing them is literally crossing a red line,” a senior European diplomat told Reuters.

Large-scale prisoner releases were part of the US-Taliban agreement, but many fear they endanger the balance of power between the government and the Taliban. While many prisoners have already been released, those involved in organizing suicide attacks on civilians remain in Afghani prisons.

Disagreement

“The United States continues to be encouraged by the great progress on prisoners release by both sides. We support additional releases by both sides to get the issue off the table,” a spokesman of the US military said. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid agreed as the Taliban continues to insist all 5,000 prisoners are released before peace talks can commence.

The Taliban says their list of 5,000 prisoners to be released as part of the agreement include no high-profile fighters involved in attacks, disputing government and NATO claims. “There are no such people, these are just excuses to create barriers against the peace process,” Mujahid told Reuters.

The US appears confident that the Taliban will no longer pose the threat to the US that led to the 2001 invasion of the country. “Conditions would have to be met that satisfy us — that attacks against our homeland are not going to be generated from Afghanistan,” General McKenzie stressed.

UK, US, Spain Sign $26 Million Donor Aid Agreement With Jordan

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The hard-hitting after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poorest and most vulnerable has prompted the international government aid agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain to band together to support stability in Jordan. 

On Thursday, US Aid Agency (USAID), UK Department for International Development (DFID), and Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) announced they, in partnership with Jordan’s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, were coming together to create a new multi-donor account. 

USAID said it will contribute $20 million to the fund, while the UK will give $6.17 million to the account that is to be administered by Jordan’s National Aid Fund (NAF).  

The British Ambassador to Jordan, Edward Oakden, noted, “In a crisis, it is so often the poorest and most vulnerable who are hardest hit.” The funds will help those most affected in the form of emergency cash and allowances to cover necessities like transportation and electricity through Jordan’s NAF. 

Preserving Jordanian resilience 

Jordan’s Minister for Planning and International Cooperation Wissam Rabadi welcomed the renewed support, saying it would help “further strengthen our national system and assist our efforts towards self-reliance.” 

“We are grateful to the Governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain for their generous and invaluable support towards this multi-donor account, which reflects a true understanding of the mounting challenges facing Jordan in light of regional crises, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Jordanian economy,” the minister said on June 18.

“The overarching purpose of this program is to expand and improve the poverty-targeted social assistance programs operated by the National Aid Fund and strengthen their ability to respond to emergencies, including the COVID-19 crisis, with the ultimate goal of alleviating the effects of poverty in Jordan. Moving forward, we aspire to further strengthen this partnership by encouraging other donors and international partners to join this effort,” Rabadi added.  

“No country can tackle the COVID-19 crisis alone,” the British ambassador said. “With this support, we are standing up together for the weakest in society, while also buttressing Jordan’s economic resilience.” 

The USAID Jordan Mission Director Jim Barnhart added that the new agreement was proof that even in moments of crisis, the international community should remain committed to ensuring partners like Jordan are strengthened with ongoing assistance.

“The joint financing arrangement for the National Aid Fund establishes the third such multi-donor fund that accelerates Jordan’s path toward self-reliance by working through the Jordanian governmental system,” Barnhart tweeted after the announcement. 

“We are devoting our efforts to joining common initiatives like this one, based on solidarity and aligning resources behind Jordan’s leadership in order to achieve a real impact,” he added.  

The Spanish Ambassador to Jordan, Aranzazu Banon Davalos, hailed the collaborative and local-led nature of the new agreement, saying, “We are devoting our efforts to joining common initiatives like this one, based on solidarity and aligning resources behind Jordan’s leadership in order to achieve a real impact.” 

“Spain, as part of the EU, and as a close and committed partner to Jordan firmly believes that working together with other donors and the Government of Jordan is the best way forward in order to be successful in the common endeavor to overcome the crisis leaving no one behind,” the Spanish Ambassador added.  

Jordan borders Syria, Iraq, and Israel and has become a mecca for people fleeing violence and economic upheaval in its region. It now hosts 750,000 refugees, the second-highest number in the world in comparison to its population. 

Although relatively economically resilient compared to many of its neighbors, like all countries worldwide, its economy has taken a dive due to COVID-19. 

The latest injection of American, British, and Spanish funds demonstrates the international community’s keen interest in ensuring Jordan remains a beacon of political and economic stability in a troubled part of the Middle East. 

Read also: Inside a Drastic Lockdown : Living and Working through Confinement in Jordan

 

 

Russian Sources Signal Possible End to Oil Production Cuts

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With oil prices nearing their highest since early March, Kirill Dmitriev, one of Russia’s top oil negotiators  signaled his will to draw down production cuts on Friday June 19. Dmitriev is one of the key players leading negotiations with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Agreements between OPEC and the Russian-led alliance of non-OPEC countries, called OPEC+, have been one of the primary factors in the efforts to stabilize the oil market.

With demand for oil increasing as economies reopen, Russia appears to see no point in further extending production cuts. The existing agreement calls for a global production cut of 7.7 million barrels per day, from August to December. From January 2021, production cuts would drop to 5.8 million barrels per day, lasting until April 2022 when the agreement expires.

Price uptick

In April, oil prices hit their lowest price since the turn of the millennium as high global supply met an unprecedented dip in demand when flights were grounded, citizens faced lockdowns, and non-essential economic activity dissipated. In April prices hit $16 per barrel, with WTI briefly dipping into historic negative territory amid a scramble to offload futures before their expiry.

The extreme fluctuations in the already volatile oil market prompted most of the world’s oil producing countries to come together to establish painful, but necessary, production cuts in order to ease over supply that led to oil storage running out, with tankers and oil bunkers used as temporary storage to accommodate for a lack of buyers.

OPEC+

Ever since, any news around negotiations over production cuts between OPEC and the OPEC+ groups has led to swings in global oil prices. Now that demand is increasing and most OPEC members report compliance with the agreed upon cuts, meetings have revolved more around suring up lagging countries like Iraq and Kazachstan.

The current oil price hovers around $40, sufficient for Russia to balance its budgets. For many higher-cost oil producers however, the current price means losses, involuntary production cuts and even bankruptcies. The US shale gas industry, Canadian tar-sand extraction and Brazilian off-shore oil all struggle to survive at current prices, while countries like Saudi Arabia would be able to live with “lower for longer.”

OPEC

But while many OPEC members in the Gulf could make a profit on current prices, their national budgets have been based on much higher prices, leaving major gaps. A country like Iraq, that has some of the cheapest oil to extract, still needs oil prices to be at $56 per barrel in order to fund the $135 billion in estimated state revenue. The country has struggled to comply with OPEC’s agreed cuts as most of its oil production is done by foreign supermajors, leading to difficult negotiations.

Many countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) similarly presented ambitious budgets for 2020, expecting much higher revenues than those that materialized due to the COVID-19 crisis. For these countries production cuts remain one of the few tools to drive prices up further, but it appears that major players like Russia and Saudi Arabia would prefer oil prices to not increase too rapidly, in order to prevent a resurgence in its higher-cost competitors like shale gas.

Diverging forecasts

Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to have a much larger market-share in the near future. After a decade of losing market-share to US producers, Saudi Arabia is expected to have the largest market-share since the 1980s. With production down significantly and demand slowly returning, prices are likely to go up in the long run.

Investment bank JP Morgan Chase in early March predicted oil to hit $190 per barrel due to a “supercycle” where a downward swing in prices is followed by equally dramatic upswing. The bank’s predictions were squashed by the COVID-19 related drop in demand, but its experts remain confident that a “bullish supercycle is on the horizon,” according to CNN.

“The reality is the chances of oil going toward $100 at this point are higher than three months ago,” JP morgan’s Christyan Malek. However, uncertainty remains as economic results are highly dependent on public health successes in containing the spread of the coronavirus. BP has slashed its forecast, expecting COVID-19 to have an “enduring impact on the global economy.”

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