COVID-19 Pandemic Reaches Highest Daily Increase in Cases

On Sunday, June 21, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called COVID-19 “the challenge and opportunity of our time” as the pandemic reaches a new phase. The world appears to be caught in the first wave of the pandemic, with cases still increasing daily. Countries reported 183,000 new cases on June 21, marking the largest daily increase since the emergence of the virus in 2019.

Growing cases

Brazil appears to be the worst-hit country currently. Its government’s much-criticized COVID-19 response led to a disastrous 55,000 new cases to add to its caseload of one million patients. Brazil has reported 49,976 COVID-19-related deaths. Brazilians took to the streets to protest President Jair Bolsanaro, as he appeared to bolster support of the military as tensions mount in the capital, Brasilia.

On the African continent, recorded cases reached 306,567 according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. The African CDC also reported 146,212 recoveries amid a total death toll of 8,115 as the continent’s disparate regions face different phases of the epidemic. North African countries have achieved relative success through strict containment measures, keeping the total regional caseload at around 81,500.

In Southern Africa several nations are still facing the initial wave of infections with 101,700 recorded cases while West Africa has seen 62,400, East Africa reported 31,400, and Central Africa recorded 29,500. Africa’s young population appears to be keeping death tolls relatively low but, like in many places across the world, much remains unclear about the scale of unreported cases.

Socioeconomic impact

While Africa’s youthful population might be more resilient against the virus, the socioeconomic consequences of the global crisis are prompting a renewed call for solidarity in the pandemic’s aftermath. The president of Costa Rica, Carlos Alvarado Quesada, joined forces with Ghebreyesus to launch a “Solidarity Call to Action.”

Only by working together, the statement says, can we ensure a fair and equitable response to the economic aftermath of the crisis. The WHO’s June 1 call to action urges governments to avoid international competition over vaccines and economic support in order to mitigate the long-term effects of the pandemic that has claimed almost half a million lives in less than a year.

Urging an “open and collaborative” approach

Governments and researchers should “promote innovation, remove barriers, and facilitate open sharing of knowledge, intellectual property and data,” according to a WHO statement, as international frictions have emerged over the distribution of an eventual COVID-19 vaccine.

The WHO hopes to encourage a spirit of “open and collaborative approaches” to ensure an “equitable distribution and access to products needed for COVID-19.”

Some commercial companies working on vaccines are pressuring governments to outbid each other to receive “first access” to an eventual vaccine.

The US and EU are already buying up hundreds of millions of doses of yet unproven drugs, causing many to many fear the crisis will further exacerbate global inequalities.

Desperate need for unity

Calls for the development of a “People’s Vaccine” through global cooperation appear to have resulted in little, despite the concept’s broad support by many current and former world leaders.

The new “Solidarity Call to Action” appears to attempt to refocus the global pharmaceutical industry and its government funders to prioritize global stability and a common humanity over political decisions that lead to competition over vaccine access.

The Call to Action has received formal support from a variety of WHO member states across the world, but the future will tell if any true collaboration will materialize.

“The world is in desperate need of national unity and global solidarity. The politicization of the pandemic has exacerbated it,” Dr Tedros said on Monday, June 22, “…the greatest threat we face now is not the virus itself, it’s the lack of global solidarity and global leadership.”

Saudi Arabia Shakes off COVID-19 Curfew

After months of strict COVID-19 curbs, there is finally light at the end of the tunnel for residents of Saudi Arabia. As promised on May 26, the nationwide coronavirus curfew was lifted at 6 a.m. on Sunday, June 21, and the country’s commerce and sporting venues are reopening. 

It appears that, even though Saudi Arabia is looking towards a “new normal,” some restrictions will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Mandatory face masks and social distancing will remain, as will the ban on international travel and the Umrah pilgrimage until further notice.  

As of Sunday, commercial and economic activity will be allowed to restart, “provided utmost caution and protection are taken, as well as observance of full abidance by the precautionary measures and preventive procedures,” an official statement carried by state news outlet the Saudi Press Agency said on June 20. At present, gatherings cannot exceed 50 people, which may limit some workplaces and activities.  

On Saturday, in another piece of good news for Saudi Arabia’s business sector and workers, the Ministry of Human Resources and  Social Development said that workplaces can increase attendance to 75% starting June 29. In the meantime, the public sector is encouraged to continue to operate on a flexible timetable and facilitate “teleworking” for remote workers.     

Sports lovers across the country also rejoiced on Saturday when the Ministry of Sports announced Saudi Arabia’s sports centers and halls can reopen from June 21. Sports facilities must observe a number of COVID-19 control measures including equipment sterilization, providing hand sanitizer, enforcing social distancing, and encouraging patrons to bring and use their own equipment where possible. 

Handshakes and physical contact between athletes also remain off-limits under the Ministry of Sports guide. Contact sports like taekwondo and karate will have to wait a little longer before they can recommence tournaments, while spectators and audiences remain banned from all sporting events. 

As restrictions ease further, the Ministry of Interior reiterated its calls for all residents to download the country’s tracking and COVID-19 advice application. The new freedoms also came with a reminder that any workplace or individual violating precautionary measures will be prosecuted accordingly. 

On Saturday, the Ministry of Health reported 740 new infections, taking Saudi Arabia’s total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases to 154,233, including 1,230 fatalities and 98,917 recoveries. 

Read also: Saudi Arabia to Expand Library Network

UK, US, Spain Sign $26 Million Donor Aid Agreement With Jordan

The hard-hitting after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poorest and most vulnerable has prompted the international government aid agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain to band together to support stability in Jordan. 

On Thursday, US Aid Agency (USAID), UK Department for International Development (DFID), and Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) announced they, in partnership with Jordan’s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, were coming together to create a new multi-donor account. 

USAID said it will contribute $20 million to the fund, while the UK will give $6.17 million to the account that is to be administered by Jordan’s National Aid Fund (NAF).  

The British Ambassador to Jordan, Edward Oakden, noted, “In a crisis, it is so often the poorest and most vulnerable who are hardest hit.” The funds will help those most affected in the form of emergency cash and allowances to cover necessities like transportation and electricity through Jordan’s NAF. 

Preserving Jordanian resilience 

Jordan’s Minister for Planning and International Cooperation Wissam Rabadi welcomed the renewed support, saying it would help “further strengthen our national system and assist our efforts towards self-reliance.” 

“We are grateful to the Governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain for their generous and invaluable support towards this multi-donor account, which reflects a true understanding of the mounting challenges facing Jordan in light of regional crises, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Jordanian economy,” the minister said on June 18.

“The overarching purpose of this program is to expand and improve the poverty-targeted social assistance programs operated by the National Aid Fund and strengthen their ability to respond to emergencies, including the COVID-19 crisis, with the ultimate goal of alleviating the effects of poverty in Jordan. Moving forward, we aspire to further strengthen this partnership by encouraging other donors and international partners to join this effort,” Rabadi added.  

“No country can tackle the COVID-19 crisis alone,” the British ambassador said. “With this support, we are standing up together for the weakest in society, while also buttressing Jordan’s economic resilience.” 

The USAID Jordan Mission Director Jim Barnhart added that the new agreement was proof that even in moments of crisis, the international community should remain committed to ensuring partners like Jordan are strengthened with ongoing assistance.

“The joint financing arrangement for the National Aid Fund establishes the third such multi-donor fund that accelerates Jordan’s path toward self-reliance by working through the Jordanian governmental system,” Barnhart tweeted after the announcement. 

“We are devoting our efforts to joining common initiatives like this one, based on solidarity and aligning resources behind Jordan’s leadership in order to achieve a real impact,” he added.  

The Spanish Ambassador to Jordan, Aranzazu Banon Davalos, hailed the collaborative and local-led nature of the new agreement, saying, “We are devoting our efforts to joining common initiatives like this one, based on solidarity and aligning resources behind Jordan’s leadership in order to achieve a real impact.” 

“Spain, as part of the EU, and as a close and committed partner to Jordan firmly believes that working together with other donors and the Government of Jordan is the best way forward in order to be successful in the common endeavor to overcome the crisis leaving no one behind,” the Spanish Ambassador added.  

Jordan borders Syria, Iraq, and Israel and has become a mecca for people fleeing violence and economic upheaval in its region. It now hosts 750,000 refugees, the second-highest number in the world in comparison to its population. 

Although relatively economically resilient compared to many of its neighbors, like all countries worldwide, its economy has taken a dive due to COVID-19. 

The latest injection of American, British, and Spanish funds demonstrates the international community’s keen interest in ensuring Jordan remains a beacon of political and economic stability in a troubled part of the Middle East. 

Read also: Inside a Drastic Lockdown : Living and Working through Confinement in Jordan

 

 

50,000 COVID-19 Cases in Egypt Amid Plans to Restart Tourism

On Friday, June 19, Egypt passed the unfortunate milestone of recording more than 50,000 cases nationwide. The government reported 1,218 new cases on Thursday, June 18, after the country saw its largest daily increase yet when 1,677 cases and 62 deaths hit headlines on June 13. According to data reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) Egypt now has 50,437 cases and 1,938 deaths, with no sign of a flattening curve in infection rates.

Growing Epidemic

As the most populous country in the Middle East and North Africa, Egypt would logically record more cases than its smaller neighbors, but the continuous increase in cases is worrying experts. The Egyptian Medical Syndicate on Tuesday, June 16 reported that 68 Egyptian doctors have died of the coronavirus and 430 have contracted the virus, making up roughly 5-7% of all doctors.

According to Anadolu Agency, unofficial sources have claimed that a further 1,000 healthcare workers have caught the virus, leading to 180 deaths by Tuesday, June 16. At the end of May, the Guardian revealed that one of its reporters in Egypt, Ruth Michaelson, was forced to leave the country after reporting on a study that disputed Egypt’s official tally.

While Egypt initially designated a number of COVID-19 isolation hospitals for every citizen that showed even mild symptoms. The continual increase in new cases appears to have pushed the health ministry to now offer prescriptions that are delivered to patients’ homes as Egypt’s healthcare system struggles to cope with an influx in new cases.

Reopening tourism

On the same day that Egyptian health officials released news of the unfortunate new milestone, the Egyptian Minister of Tourism and Antiquities, Khaled al-Anany struck an altogether more positive tone. In an interview with Chinese outlet Xinhua, al-Anany stated that Egypt is “gearing up” to welcome foreign tourists.

Anany stated that Egypt “will reopen its airports and resorts in the provinces of Red Sea, South Sinai, and Matrouh to international tourists in an attempt to ease the anticipated recession on the tourism sector due to COVID-19 spread.” The three provinces where tourism will be allowed are all coastal provinces, where Egyptian officials have reported relatively low numbers of coronavirus infections.

“I have received official requests to resume tourist flows from Italy and Ukraine,” Anany told Xinhua, but tempered expectations by saying “we are not expecting a high number of tourists for the time being, not only in Egypt, but the whole world.”

Egypt’s reliance on income from its important tourism sector could force it to risk a premature reopening. Tourism in Egypt brought in $13 billion in 2019, which was an all-time record for the country.

Preventative measures

Several tourism-dependent countries around the world have offered a range of coronavirus-related measures to assuage potential tourists’ worries. The Cypriot Ministry of Tourism announced that any tourist that tests positive for COVID-19 infection on arrival in Cyprus will be provided with free treatment and no hotel expenses on the island. Campsites and hotels around Europe are also reopening as many countries slowly lift lockdowns.

The global pandemic has created an unprecedented situation for tourism around the Mediterranean as millions of Europeans will have had their original travel plans canceled and could soon be shopping for bargains. Meanwhile, traditional tourist destinations compete to offer visitors a safe way to enjoy the hot summer months.

For Egypt, this means improving hygiene standards and introducing a variety of preventative measures. “We are not in a hurry because we give priority to the safety of tourists as well as preserving our image as a tourist destination,” Tourism Minister Anany told Xinhua: Safety has become the new focus in international tourism.

“Hotels have ramped up hygiene, archaeological sites have been sanitized and beaches cleaned up,” Anany stated as Egypt’s seeks to reassure visitors. Whether Egypt’s ambitions toward restarting its vital tourism sector amid a growing epidemic will be successful remains to be seen.

For the many Egyptians who work in the industry, it is clear they would rather listen to their tourism minister’s optimism than despair over the increased numbers of infections reported by health officials.

Dubai Fitness Fanatics Organize Burpee World Record Event for Charity

After working out at home every day during the COVID-19 lockdown, and being touched by the plight of Ghanaians who become homeless while waiting for repatriation flights, Tarek Jabi decided to call in some fellow fitness fanatics to help him raise funds for those in need and attempt a world record while they are at it.  

Jabi enlisted the help of fellow Dubai-based fitness buddies Jade Palmer and Emil Pittman who run the online platform #Workoutwentviral and came up with the idea of doing a “burpee-a-thon” on Friday, June 19. Together, the trio alongside Anu Thomas, Johanna Suttie, and Yomi Egbeleye will lead the 12-hour #DoOneGiveOne challenge, run in conjunction with Emirates Red Crescent. 

The organization will use the funds to support people stranded in the United Arab Emirates by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated travel shutdowns. 

“There are a lot of people struggling to get by at the moment, or to get home,” Pittman said. “Many of those are people who have come in from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh on visit visas, for a better life for their families and got stuck here temporarily.” 

The six charity-minded sportspeople will aim to complete a combined total of 9,000 to 10,000 burpees between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. on Friday. Together with help from the public, their goal is to raise AED 50,000 ($13,600) and create a new Guinness World Record for the most burpees done by a team in 12 hours.  

As the name #DoOneGiveOne suggests, anyone can join in the burpee-a-thon. You can support the world record and charity event by signing on to a Zoom session and completing as many burpees as possible during a 45 minute time slot on Friday. Participants are encouraged to donate AED 1 ($0.27) for every burpee they complete, while a Guiness World Record team counts them towards the record attempt. 

“The more you do, the more you give,” Jabi said. “I want everyone to know that giving starts with a dirham. A lot of people want to give back to the community, but don’t know how… and any amount can make a difference.” 

Less energetic but equally charity-minded people can choose to simply donate without raising a sweat through the YallaGive platform. 

Read also: Dubai Security Forces Take Down Danish Gangster

 

 

Subject of Tunisian COVID-19 Scandal Details Quarantine ‘Escape’

No sooner had Tunisian Prime Minister Elyes Fakfakh said the country had beaten COVID-19, than a scandal broke involving one woman who “escaped” quarantine over the weekend and went on to attend a wedding.  

The woman has since come forward and told local radio she left the state-sanctioned quarantine hotel because of a name mix-up. The young lady, who asked to stay anonymous for fear of backlash, said she was in the center after finally being repatriated from what was meant to be a quick trip to Canada, but turned into a three month ordeal because of COVID-19. 

After petitioning the Tunisian Embassy in Canada, the woman who normally resides in Menzel Temime was finally able to secure a seat on a repatriation flight alongside her sister. Early on the morning of Sunday, June 7, the pair’s flight from Montreal touched down in Tunisia. They were temperature tested and sent to a quarantine center in Yasmine Hammamet, where they both spent seven days in confinement.  

“Anarchy” at Quarantine Hotel  

On the eighth day of quarantine, and still asymptomatic, the woman left the COVID-19 hotel believing she had been cleared by authorities.  

“At the reception, there was a lot of anarchy, no-one knew what to do — to stay or to go,” she told local radio station Sabra FM.

“A few hours earlier, they knocked on the doors of our rooms and told us to take our luggage downstairs to the reception, and that we could leave.  

“Confused, we spent a long time waiting in the reception, from 5pm to 11pm. During that entire time, no one told us anything. On the contrary, the tension was so high that fights began to break out,” she explained.   

After leaving she visited her parents and attended a family wedding in Menzel Temime — where 80 people who came into contact with her are now in mandatory isolation, according to TAP News.  

After the ceremony, the young lady received a phone call from the quarantine facility telling her to return. It now appears that it was her sister, who has the same family name, that was actually authorized to leave.   

“When they began to announce the names of those who could leave quarantine, I heard my surname. I thought they meant me, but in fact it was my sister. It was my fault for not checking the name properly,” she said.

“I still have no documentation to say that I have tested positive. I had been there for a whole week, and received not a single document to say that I was positive. No one said that there was a positive case either. Logically, if you have a positive case, you would think they would have left them in their room. That was not the case.” 

The young lady felt the need to come forward and tell her side of the story, given the abuse she has endured and the rumors flying about the incident. “Do you think I’m that reckless?” she told the radio host. 

Media reports said the woman ate at a restaurant with her fiancé after leaving the COVID-19 hotel and infected a number of police officers before returning to the facilities — allegations she denies. 

Tunisian Blunders 

On June 18, another story emerged that another young person — this time a 24-year-old man repatriated from Kuwait, had been wrongly given permission to leave quarantine despite testing positive for COVID-19. The man arrived back in Tunisia on June 9 and had been under mandatory quarantine in a hotel until he was released on Tuesday, before receiving his test results.  

The Ksour Essef resident’s test came back positive, and he has now been transferred to a COVID-19 treatment center in Monastir. Health authorities are now busily tracing and testing his family and friends.  

The poor handling of these two cases has raised serious doubts about the Tunisian government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and thrown into question its de-confinement strategy. 

On Sunday, June 14, the virus seemed to be under control. Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh made what now appears to be a premature declaration of victory against COVID-19. After the announcement, cases spiked on June 16 and 17.  

Nevertheless, Tunisia’s COVID-19 case load remains low compared with its neighbors. There are only 1,128 total confirmed cases and 50 deaths, and just 74 of those cases remain active.  

Despite warnings from Health Minister Abdellatif Mekki about a second wave of the virus, Tunisia is still on track to become the first North African country to reopen all borders on June 27.

Read also: Tunisia Eyes Economy After Declaring COVID-19 Victory

Rich Countries Seek Priority Access to COVID-19 Vaccine

In order for an eventual COVID-19 vaccine to save as many lives as possible, it would require rapid distribution, and to those countries struggling with the highest infection rates. The chances that will happen are slim, say several experts who see an increasingly competitive race for first-access to a potential vaccine.

“We have this beautiful picture of everyone getting the vaccine, but there is no road map on how to do it,” the Associated Press was told by Yuan Qiong Hu, a senior legal and policy adviser at Doctors Without Borders in Geneva.

Hu predicts that the existing structure, in which companies establish patents at every step of vaccine development, will hamper the distribution and development of a vaccine that could be made available to all. “We can’t afford to face these multiple layers of private rights to create a ‘people’s vaccine,’” she told the AP.

Three phases

Several possible vaccines are under development across the world thanks to global efforts, with around a dozen in the early stages of testing. Vaccine development requires any potential remedy to go through a three-phase process that tests the efficacy of the drug while ensuring that side effects do not pose unforeseen risks.

In the first phase, small groups of people receive the trial vaccine. If the vaccine proves successful without any significant health risks among the participants, the process moves to the second phase.

In phase two, the clinical study expands to a group of people who are part of the risk group for whom the vaccine is intended, which in COVID-19 cases would be older people and those vulnerable because of pre-existing illnesses.

The third and final phase tests the vaccine on thousands of people to ensure safety and a proven efficacy to avoid false positives and detect possible allergic reactions or side effects.

Private investment

Several wealthy countries have spent millions to support the rapid development of possible vaccine candidates and ensure a potential vaccine could be manufactured on a large scale. In exchange for these investments, these countries are expected to receive vaccines before others.

The British government has declared that the first 30 million doses of a possible vaccine under development at Oxford University will be earmarked for British citizens. The US became entangled in a diplomatic row with France over the potential future distribution of a French vaccine candidate to which the US expected first access because of its investments.

AstraZeneca, a drug manufacturer that intends to produce Oxford University’s vaccine, has signed an agreement with the US that would guarantee 300 million doses for the US, to be delivered as soon as possible.

The same manufacturer struck a deal with four EU countries to also supply them with 300 million doses. Drug manufacturers appear to be actively goading governments into making early commitments to buy yet-unproven drugs, playing countries against each other as they stand to make giant profits.

While pharmaceutical companies have pledged to provide a not-for-profit version of their vaccines, it is becoming clear that the world’s richest will be the first to receive the vaccines, even if other countries need them much more. Another example of the perverse nature of privatized medicine, it will be the richest, not the sickest, who will receive priority in this global crisis.

Saudi Arabia Proposes Framework For Peace in Yemen

Saudi Arabia is planning to introduce a proposal that aims to realize a power-sharing agreement to end the conflict in Yemen. Saudi officials have not made the framework available publicly, but the proposal has been shared with Reuters who released details of the plan on Thursday, May 18.

The framework aims to create conditions for a renewal of the Riyadh Agreement that was signed on November 5, 2019 after months of delay.

The two-month deadline for implementation of the agreement has long since passed, but Saudi Arabian diplomats are hoping to re-engage the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government to finally implement the power-sharing deal.

Developments

The Yemeni conflict continues to spiral out of control amid grave concerns over the impact of COVID-19 while its devastated healthcare facilities are unable to cope with an influx in infections.

NGOs like Doctors Without Borders (MSF) have called on combatants to cease hostilities amid an unfolding “catastrophe,” but fighting continues and a funding drive for Yemen failed to raise the $2.4 billion needed to avert disaster in the country.

Significant advances made by the Emirati-backed STC have further weakened chances of a successful implementation of the Riyadh Agreement. Since signing the agreement, the STC has declared self-rule over Aden and swaths of the country’s South in direct violation of the terms.

The STC’s actions have highlighted the fractured nature of Saudi-Emirati cooperation who now support opposing sides vying for control.

Saudi framework

The new Saudi proposal calls for an immediate ceasefire in the Abyan province where ongoing fighting continues to claim casualties on all sides. The STC rescinding their declaration of self-rule over the important port city of Aden would then follow the ceasefire, which could prove to be a hard sell for the Transitional Council who has now ruled the area for months.

If the STC does agree to rescind its emergency rule over the area, Saudi-backed Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi would proceed to appoint a governor and security chief in Aden and appoint a new prime minister.

The Hadi-appointed prime minister would then proceed to form a cabinet that would include politicians of the STC.

The formation of government would follow a full withdrawal of STC forces from Aden. The agreement would require STC’s military units to move to Abyan where they have been engaged in direct conflict with government forces.

Incentives

While the agreement demands significant concessions from the Emirati-backed STC, it is unclear what incentives it offers for compliance.

Two STC sources have already told Reuters they would want to see the government formed before they withdraw their forces from Aden, as it remains unclear if Saudi diplomats are offering the STC, or the UAE that backs them, a quid-pro-quo for abandoning hard-fought military gains.

Another sticking point of the agreement is that the implementation of the deal would return the country to a similar status quo that prompted the Shia Houthis, who are backed by Iran, to rebel against Hadi’s government in the first place.

Bilateral agreement

A June 18 Houthi communique made no reference to the Saudi proposal but instead brought attention to a decaying oil tanker off Yemen’s coast. The unaddressed threat could soon create a 1 million-barrel oil spill in the Red Sea.

The Saudi-backed coalition is continuing aerial raids against Houthi weapons depots as they advance towards Marib, a stronghold of the Saudi-led coalition. The Houthis in turn have launched drones against Saudi targets, prompting the Saudi-led coalition to threaten “rigorous measures.”

It appears that Saudi Arabia is hoping the framework will bring Emirati-backed forces back to its ranks in order to concentrate efforts against the Iran-backed Houthi forces.

While observers should see any reduction in violence as a positive development, true peace in Yemen can likely only be realized by addressing all fighting parties’ concerns.

Fate of Oil Markets Relies on COVID-19 Containment

Oil prices dipped again on Wednesday, June 17, as Arizona, Florida, and Texas reported record numbers of new COVID-19 cases. Many conservative states have seen an uptick in infections during their drive towards a rapid reopening of local economies with insufficient adherence to containment measures.

The worrying numbers caused oil prices to fall. Brent crude dropped $0.38, 0.9% of the total value, while American WTI oil fell $0.56 or 1.5% of its value. Oil markets had been optimistic over growing demand amid reopening economies, discounting the possibility of a second wave.

But US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci on June 16 stated that the United States had not yet left its first “wave.” “When I look at the TV and I see pictures of people congregating at bars when the location they are indicates they shouldn’t be doing that, that’s very risky,” Fauci said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

Second wave

Countries like Tunisia and New Zealand had initially declared themselves coronavirus-free before having to revise expectations after detecting new local infections.

“We think the oil market is not currently pricing in a significant probability of either second waves of coronavirus cases in key consumers and the associated lockdowns, or anything less than a rapid return to economic business-as-usual,” analysts of Standard Chartered told Reuters.

In the midst of a stock market fueled by stimulus spending, in which bankruptcies have been essentially made impossible, oil markets are enjoying less of an artificial boost. The only methods that have helped alleviate prices somewhat are painful production cuts and the closing of wells.

OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly report on June 17, predicting a gradual recovery in global demand for oil. OPEC credited much of its production cuts to the recent slight recovery in oil prices.

“The oil market was strongly supported by a reduction of the global crude oil surplus, thanks mainly to the historic voluntary production adjustment agreement,” OPEC stated in its report, released the same day participants in the OPEC+ production cuts are set to meet to review the impact of the move.

Although OPEC is cautiously optimistic, it still predicts that global oil demand will drop by 6.4 million barrels in the second half of 2020, with transportation and aviation fuels as the main laggards.

Caesar Act Sanctions: Another Blow to Syria’s Collapsing Economy

The US and European Union’s latest round of sanctions, known as the “Caesar Act,” aims to cut Bashar Al Assad’s final foreign economic lifelines. 

Lawmakers passed the  legislation in December 2019 but it came into force today, June 17. They named the act in honor a military photographer codenamed “Caesar” who infiltrated Syrian jails where he took over 50,000 photos of torture and death.  

The sanctions are meant to “compel the government of Bashar al-Assad to halt its murderous attacks on the Syrian people and to support a transition to a government in Syria that respects the rule of law, human rights, and peaceful co-existence with its neighbours.” 

In reality, Syria’s economy is in dire straits. The currency has crashed in the wake of the impending sanctions, driving up the cost of living for ordinary citizens while the regime continues unphased. 

An estimated 80% of Syrians were already living below the poverty line prior to the recent economic decline, which has only intensified their struggle. Their situation is so distressing that thousands of Syrians took a huge risk, returning to the streets for the first time since 2011 to protest the worsening conditions in towns like Suweida, Daraa, and Idlib. 

UN envoy’s report

In his latest briefing to the UN Security Council, UN Special Envoy on Syria Geir Pederson reported that the Syrian pound has depreciated at lightning speed, driving up food and medicine prices and disrupting supply chains.  

“I heard a new level of alarm at the dramatic collapse in economic conditions throughout the country. It is easy to understand why,” Pederson told the Security Council. “During just one week during the reporting period, the Syrian lira’s market rate depreciated more than in the entire nine years prior.” 

“The economic crisis is hitting every part of Syria, regardless of territorial control: from Damascus and the southwest … to Aleppo and the northwest … and to the northeast,” the UN envoy explained.  

The devastating financial and political crisis in Lebanon is one factor that has driven its “twin” economy in neighboring Syria into a spiral of decline, Pederson said. The collapse is also gaining momentum from the fallout from the country’s civil war, long-running structural issues with the economy like poor governance and corruption, the COVID-19 pandemic, and now the Caesar Act. 

“In recent weeks, we have seen many Syrians begin to express new fears – even panic in some quarters. We have heard of shops and pharmacies forced to close, unable to cope with the recent volatility; of jobs being lost; of remittances drying up. In some areas of northwest Syria, reports have emerged of locals increasingly using foreign currencies,” Pederson said. 

The new sanctions effectively penalise any country that does business with any company in Syria. As a result, they cut off the few trade ties Syria has left with its primary trading partner Lebanon, for one – but also with European and Gulf States. 

UNSC response

Security Council permanent members Russian and China spoke out against the sanctions on June 16.  

China called the move to forge ahead with the Caesar Act in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing global and economic crisis, “simply inhumane.”

Meanwhile Russia, who supports the Assad regime, told the Security Council “that the purpose of these measures is to overthrow the legitimate authorities in Syria.”

The US has been imposing sanctions on Syria since 1979, and gradually ratcheted up the restrictions since civil war broke out in 2011. Nine years on, they have had minimal effect on Assad, and failed to trigger the downfall of his bloody dictatorship. 

Sanctions have proven ineffective time and time again and, often missing their target, devastate the lives of the everyday citizens they are supposed to be helping. 

It is unlikely the Caesar Act will be any different or achieve the regime change it so boldly hopes to bring about, and instead will be the catalyst for more pain and suffering for the Syrian people.

Read also: Syrians Brace for Looming Sanctions