France Deems Turkish Ambitions in Libya ‘Unacceptable’

On June 10, a Greek navy ship approached a Turkish cargo vessel in the high seas off the coast of Libya. The European ship, tasked with upholding the Libyan arms embargo, approached the vessel and sent a message requesting to board and inspect the suspicious cargo ship. This is a standard procedure that regulatory ships have repeated 75 times in recent months, but this time it yielded unprecedented results.

The cargo freighter did not respond; instead a Turkish warship appeared that told the Greeks to back off. With no mandate to forcibly board the freight ship, the Greek naval ship was forced to retreat without any inspection. French President Emmanuel Macron called the act “unacceptable” as the event adds fuel to an escalating diplomatic row between France and Turkey.

UN mandate

An EU spokesman on June 11 was reluctant to give details about the events, instead referring to the head of “Operation Irini” in Rome, which hosts the task force monitoring the Libyan arms embargo.

The renewed focus on the repeated breaches of the UN embargo on the supply of arms to Libya had earlier resulted in UN Resolution 2526, which mandates a naval force with daily inspections of vessels approaching and departing the Libyan coast.

The task force aims to stop the flow of arms in exchange for Libyan oil by inspecting naval trade, with the results of these inspections going to a UN panel of experts tasked with evaluating the situation. While the arms embargo faces no opposition in diplomatic circles, in practice most foreign actors involved in the chaotic conflict breach it daily.

French response

With a fresh round of peace negotiations approaching, military operations on the ground are accelerating as both sides hope to make “gains” which they can then use in negotiations. Macron had earlier highlighted Turkish “broken promises” as the new GNA gains appear to be the result of a large-scale Turkish intervention that has introduced new aerial capabilities for the Tripoli government through the use of drones.

News confirmed the horror of the Libyan conflict yet again on June 12, when UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres expressed deep shock over the discovery of mass graves in the country. But the Turkish intervention last week that prevented UN inspection of one of its vessels presents a new escalation according to the French.

“The Turks are behaving in an unacceptable manner and are exploiting NATO. France cannot just stand by,” a French official stated, while another added that France had concerns over the “even more aggressive and insistent stance from Turkey, with seven Turkish ships deployed off the Libyan coast and violations of the arms embargo.”

Further chaos

France nominally supports both sides in the conflict. As part of the UN, it recognizes the Tripoli GNA government, but France also supports Libya’s eastern LNA faction led by leader Khalifa Haftar. Macron hosted Haftar at the Elise Palace in March and has attempted to mediate a cease-fire, but with Haftar’s forces in retreat after several GNA victories, the conflict has changed.

As the GNA advances, it has brushed aside calls for a cease-fire, as the LNA did when they were at their strongest. The inconclusive back-and-forth between the two factions has led to a radical escalation of foreign troops, mercenaries, and weaponry, all in a clear breach of the embargo.

The chaotic conflict has turned Libya into a lawless state where already desperate refugees hoping to reach Europe face exploitation and die by the dozens in Libyan slave markets and refugee camps or drown in the Mediterranean Sea.

What was initially a civil war fought by Libyan militias using civilian cars and light arms has devolved into a proxy war featuring Naval frigates, fighter jets, anti-air batteries, and drones. What was once an internal conflict over the future of the country has become a sandbox for a proxy-war between foreign nations, where the Libyans themselves have little to do with an eventual resolution.

Erdogan Furious as Twitter Removes Turkish Suspicious Influence Accounts

On Friday, Twitter Security announced it has permanently removed 32,200 accounts linked to the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Turkey for various violations of Twitter’s platform manipulation policies.  

Twitter said it detected the Turkish network of 7,340 accounts in early 2020, as well as involved accounts employing “coordinated inauthentic activity” aimed at a domestic Turkish audience.  

“Based on our analysis of the network’s technical indicators and account behaviours, the collection of fake and compromised accounts was being used to amplify political narratives favorable to the AK Parti, and demonstrated strong support for President Erdogan,” the social media platform said.  

“These compromised accounts have been repeated targets of account hacking and takeover efforts by the state actors identified above. The broader network was also used for commercial activities, such as cryptocurrency-related spam,” Twitter explained. 

The major account take-down has infuriated Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan. The strong-man president slammed the removal and said Twitter’s accusations were untrue. 

“(This) has demonstrated yet again that Twitter is no mere social media company, but a propaganda machine with certain political and ideological inclinations,” Erdogan’s communications director Fahrettin Altun said.  

Turkish cyber rights expert Yaman Akdeniz said the network appeared to be made up of relatively inactive bots and requires further investigation.  

“But it makes it official that bots are used in Turkey for political purposes,” he told Reuters.  

Twitter said it has shared details of the disabled accounts with research partners Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and the US-based Stanford Internet Observatory (SIO) for further evaluation. 

Outside of the Turkish network, the bulk of the freshly-disabled accounts were linked to China. Twitter removed a new network 23,750 accounts that comprised the “core network,” and an additional 150,000 accounts that were “amplifiers.” 

“They were Tweeting predominantly in Chinese languages and spreading geopolitical narratives favorable to the Communist Party of China (CCP), while continuing to push deceptive narratives about the political dynamics in Hong Kong,” Twitter revealed.   

The social media platform explained Friday’s take-down is part of its “site integrity efforts,” adding it is “the most critical work we do at Twitter to protect the public conversation.”

 

Turkey Takes Potential Step Towards Fascism by Empowering ‘Watchmen’

“I want to hear the whistles of night watchmen while I am sleeping,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in 2016, following the failed coup attempt in Turkey. His wish will now come true, as Turkish parliament on Thursday, June 10, approved a government-led bill to empower a growing force of ‘night watchmen.’

The bill passed after a heated debate that dissolved into physical violence, with an opposition parliamentarian claiming to have been punched by a lawmaker from the governing coalition.

The new bill will allow the Erdogan-aligned auxiliary force to use firearms, stop vehicles, and perform stop-and-search procedures on citizens without cause. The new powers came into force following a recent tripling of the watchmen’s numbers, from 8,000 to 25,000.

What are the watchmen?

For months the Turkish government has been steadily increasing the size and powers of the ‘Bekci,’ an irregular force that traditionally patrolled neighborhoods and performed menial religious duties, such as announcing the breaking of the fast during Ramadan. The force was disbanded in 2008, with its members integrated into the country’s already sizable police force.

But, following the 2016 coup attempt, Erdogan decided to reinstate the Bekci, recruiting thousands into what the political opposition has called Erdogan’s “loyal militia” or a potential “morality police.” The night watchmen has since grown from 4,000 to 21,000 members, adding to an already heavy police presence in Turkey.

The Bekci, which operate at night, have become an intense topic of debate. Ankara shopkeepers in 2018 protested the growing force by closing their shops earlier to avoid their customers being harassed and interrogated by the loosely-regulated night watchmen. The Bekci are often seen as an extension of the ruling coalition’s conservative values and the government’s intent to enforce these values.

Echoes from the past

Erdogan’s ruling party appears to be using nostalgia over the Bekci’s former reputation as a benevolent and friendly neighborhood watch to build support for his irregular force. The pre-2008 Bekci were often referred to as “uncle watchmen” and featured as the heroes in books and movies.

Columnist Elif Cakir of the Islamist newspaper Karar expressed concern in January over the force’s potential future role, writing: “If the issue goes beyond nostalgia, then is there a need for the watchmen? And if so, what is it?”

Turkey already had 524 police officers for every 100,000 citizens in 2012, more than most Western countries, and commentators have asked what purpose the new auxiliary force will fulfill. With no discernible public order crisis, many fear the Bekci will comprise a parallel police force, loyal to Erdogan.

Historic similarities

The forming of an armed force that answers to the ruling party is bringing back echoes of a problematic chapter in history. The images of rows of uniformed recruits appear eerily similar to black-and-white photographs of Italy’s “voluntary national security militia,” dubbed the “blackshirts” after they became the paramilitary wing of Benito Mussolini’s fascist party.

Like Erdogan’s Bekci, the blackshirts similarly consisted of nationalists, conservatives, and right-wing supporters who slowly became a violent militia that cemented Mussolini’s power in the decades leading up to the Second World War.

Another problematically similar force was Adolf Hitler’s paramilitary force. Similar to the formation of the Bekci, these forces were intended to create a loyal force parallel to existing state forces, which eventually became part of the power on which a fascist state was built.

While much remains unclear about Erdogan’s intentions with the night watchmen, it can only be considered troubling to see their powers expanded in the absence of a public order crisis that could warrant such moves. With little practical opposition to the rise of the night watchmen, their role in Turkish politics could be an indicator that tumultuous times are ahead for the Turkish people.

Morocco Extends State of Emergency, Turkey Further Eases Curbs

There is hope at the end of the tunnel for Moroccans, after the government said it will begin gradually lifting the country’s three-month-long COVID-19 lockdown. The entire country will remain under a “sanitary state of emergency” but some restrictions will be lifted from Thursday, based on the number of infections in each prefecture or province. 

In an exciting economic development for the North African country, commercial, industrial, and artisanal/handcrafts activities, as well as small businesses and weekly markets, are all authorized to reopen under the first stage of Morocco’s de-confinement plan. As for other measures, the country has been split into two zones with differing restrictions based on their COVID-19 case-load, Morocco’s Ministries for the Interior and Health announced on June 10.  

From June 11, residents in “Zone One,” which includes tourist hot spots such as Agadir, Dakhla, and Chefchaouen will once again be able to move freely without a permit, exercise outdoors alone, access public areas (beaches, parks, gardens) and visit hair and beauty salons. Public transport will recommence at 50% of normal capacity, while other “state of emergency” conditions including a ban on gatherings of any size and compulsory mask-wearing will remain in place.  

There will be little change to the confinement conditions for residents in “Zone Two,” which includes major populations and COVID-19 hotspots Rabat-Sale, Casablanca, Marrakech, Fez and Tangier. Residents will still require permission to move about for anything but essential purposes, businesses must close by 8 p.m., and public transport will operate at half capacity, as in Zone 1.  

Cafes and restaurants (excluding takeaway and delivery), hammams, cinemas, theaters, and mosques must all remain closed until further notice. The country only reported 18 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, taking Morocco’s total number of cases to 8,455. 

Erdogan Eases More Restrictions  

Turkey, meanwhile, has seemingly entered the final stages of COVID-19 control measures. On Tuesday night, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lifted the stay-at-home order on people over 65 and children under 18 years, one of the few remaining virus curbs in place. After a large initial outbreak, case numbers have slowed and Turkey lifted most coronavirus controls, such as those on intercity travel, dining-in at restaurants, and accessing public places, on June 1. 

Erdogan backed up the latest easing of restrictions with promises to kick-start the economy, and particularly get young Turks back to work by providing “normalisation support” for employers. 

“We will support employment for young people under 25 and enable them to get (work) experience,” the strong-man president told national television.  

On June 9, Turkey added 993 COVID-19 cases to its tally of 172,000, which includes 4,700 fatalities from the disease.

Read also: Turkey Issues Gulen-Linked Arrest Warrants for Military, Police Officers

Egypt’s Peace Plan for Libya Gains Ground in Arab World

On Saturday evening, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi fronted the media in Cairo to announce a political solution to the Libyan civil war, dubbed the “Cairo Declaration.” El-Sisi was flanked by Libyan House of Representatives Counselor Aguila Saleh and Libyan National Army (LNA) Chief Khalifa Haftar as he outlined the bold proposal.

“There can be no stability in Libya unless peaceful means to the crisis are found that include the unity and integrity of the national institutions,” el-Sisi said on June 6.

The first step of the plan calls for the implementation of a ceasefire on June 8 and the expulsion of all foreign militia from Libya. It would also see militias disbanded and military authority handed back to the Haftar-led LNA.  

Under el-Sisi’s plan, a transitional government composed of representatives from the country’s three regions would reign for 18 months to stabilize the country, paving the way for elections. Rival, parallel parliaments have been operating in Libya’s east and west for the last five years and the Egyptian plan would see Tripoli and Tobruk reunited.  

“We warn against the insistence of any party on continuing to search for a military solution to the crisis in Libya,” el-Sisi stressed.  

The Egyptian president framed the “Cairo Declaration” as a continuation of the frameworks set out through previous rounds of UN talks, urging the United Nations to lead renewed political discussion in Geneva. The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has yet to comment on the proposal.  

The UN-recognized Government of National (GNA) is also yet to comment on the political plan and was not represented at the Cairo summit. The GNA has instead pushed ahead with a military offensive to retake the coastal town of Sirte, south of Tripoli, which Haftar’s forces captured in April. 

Approximately 16, 000 civilians were displaced in 24 hours as fighting in southern Tripoli and Tarhouna intensified on June 5, the UNSMIL Libya reported on June 6. 

Arab world support, Turkish rejection 

Meanwhile, Egypt has been busy gaining regional support for its peace plan. Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry reached out to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, African Union Chair Moussa Faki, as well as the leaders of Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Niger, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), according to Egypt’s State Information Service (SIS).  

A number of Arab countries have already thrown their support behind the “Cairo Declaration;” in particular, the ceasefire. The governments of Saudi Arabia, the UAE,

Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan welcomed the political plan and encouraged all sides of the Libyan conflict to negotiate a peaceful solution to the ongoing crisis.

Turkey, who supports the GNA with militiamen and weapons, rejected the proposal, instead claiming it was Egypt’s support for Haftar that is undermining the political process in Libya.  

“It is not surprising that those who have taken over their administration by a coup support a putschist,” Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said, referring to el-Sis’s rise to power.  

“Egypt’s years-long military support to putschist Haftar constitutes a clear violation of the relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” Aksoy added.

The spokesman said Turkey will continue to back “the legitimate government in Libya [GNA] and pursue relevant UN resolutions. Its ally and financial backer Qatar is yet to comment on the “Cairo Declaration.”

Read also: US Signals Potential Renewed Involvement in Libya

US Signals Potential Renewed Involvement in Libya

The United States is considering the deployment of its Security Force Assistance Brigades to Tunisia in response to Russian activity in Libya.

The US has nominally stayed out of the conflict except for some support to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) targeting local forces it considers part of ISIS. The US military appears to be concerned over what it calls “Russian involvement” in the conflict that has seen Egypt, France, Turkey, and the UAE all support factions in the messy civil war.

Increasingly sophisticated weapons

Actors in the Libyan conflict are using increasingly sophisticated weaponry, despite a UN arms embargo that all foreign powers involved in the devastating proxy war nominally support. The recent involvement by Turkish planes and drones turned the tide of the conflict in the Tripoli government’s advantage, which Haftar’s forces are now countering with 14 Russian fighter jets.

The US has published grainy photos of jets taking off in Russia and landing in Libya’s Al Jufra Airbase, while the Libyan National Army (LNA) was less covert, proudly publishing photos of its new jets on twitter.

The inclusion of Russian MiG-29 and Su-24 will likely re-balance the conflict and perhaps draw it out even further, but a new factor has emerged as the US is considering renewed involvement.

Security Force Assistance Brigades

The US Security Force Assistance Brigades are a recent innovation of the US military. The 800-strong brigades first saw deployment in 2018 and consist of a variety of troops that train, support, and fight alongside another nation’s military. Whether the deployment in Tunisia signals increased involvement by Libya’s Western neighbor remains to be seen.

The “S-Fab” troops consist of commissioned and non-commissioned officers that have received additional training at the Military Advisor Training Academy in Fort Benning, Georgia. The s-fab’s are intended to relieve “advisory duties” from the infantry units that have increasingly performed these tasks in Iraq and Afghanistan. S-fabs were deployed in Senegal in 2020 and could soon make their first appearance in North Africa.

Entangled alliances

If the US indeed plans to counter Russian involvement, it would pit itself against its long-standing allies in Egypt, France, and the Emirates. Because of the intertwined alliances in Libya, it could mean that US forces would face incoming French missiles or fight forces supported by its key strategic partners in the Middle East.

The addition of Russian fighter jets is likely to prompt increased aerial support from Turkey. Turkish C-130 planes and drones are already active in the region but Ankara is likely to increase the presence of Turkish F-16 jet-fighters, which are from the same generation as the Russian MiG-29s.

With Turkey announcing that it will soon start to extract oil from Libyan waters, the stakes have never been higher. Libya already featured significant surface-to-air fighting with anti-aircraft batteries fighting drones, but the conflict could soon see it’s first air-to-air combat. This would prove a major escalation and further evidence that the Libyan arms embargo is an abject failure.

Turkey Issues Gulen-Linked Arrest Warrants for Military, Police Officers

Government prosecutors in Turkey have issued warrants for the arrests of 118 individuals, primarily from its military and police forces. Ankara is accusing 42 members of the military and the national gendarmerie of cooperation with prominent cleric Fethullah Gulen.

The accusations are based on confessions from the interrogation of suspects arrested earlier, as well as “analyses of pay phone calls.” The arrests include 24 officers that were working on active duty up to the moment the state issued the warrants.

Military members

An additional 76 military, gendarmerie, and civilian individuals are targeted for allegedly using pay phones to contact members of Gulen’s organization. The issued warrants request the immediate arrest of members of the military, navy, and air force and include a colonel and three lieutenants.

The arrest warrants are similar to those issued in July 2016, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cracked down on alleged supporters of Gulen following a failed military coup. In 2016, Ankara suspended 150,000 civil servants, military personnel, and civilians, leading to them losing their jobs because the government considered them to be supporters of the exiled cleric.

Turkish state media Anadolu Agency reported that 72 suspects had been detained after an operation that involved simultaneous raids in 35 provinces across Turkey. Anadolu Agency called the arrests an “anti-terror” operation and reiterated the alleged connection to what the Turkish state calls the “Fethullah Terrorist Organization.”

State repression

The state has accused the arrested suspects of trying to overthrow the Turkish regime through the infiltration of the country’s security forces, military, and judiciary. But many experts accuse the Turkish state of a “dramatic erosion of its rule of law and democracy framework.”

Human rights NGO Human Rights Watch has stated that since the 2016 crackdown, Turkey is “experiencing a deepening human rights crisis.” The watchdog is expressing concerns over the misuse of terrorism charges used to jail opposition figures and dissenting voices in Turkish society.

Amnesty International fears the use of anti-terrorism laws are used “in the absence of evidence of any criminal wrongdoing, to silence real or perceived dissent.” Amnesty also highlights the increased censorship in Turkish media, including the new licensing laws and criminal prosecutions intended to silence social media criticism.

UN: Libya Truce Talks Imminent

A surprise statement by the UN late Monday has signaled that Libya’s warring parties have accepted a resumption of talks to establish a ceasefire. Both the Tripoli government (GNA) and the eastern forces led by Khalifa Haftar (LNA) appear to have agreed to the draft agreement that the UN mission in Libya (UNSMIL) proposed on February 23.

Unexpected ceasefire

The talks will revolve around establishing a sustainable ceasefire agreement but also cover “associated security arrangements,” according to the June 1 statement from the UN mission in Libya.

“UNSMIL emphasizes that the resumption of dialogue constitutes a response by the parties to the desire and calls of the overwhelming majority of Libyans who long for a return to a safe and dignified life as quickly as possible” the statement said. But UNSMIL is remaining cautiously hopeful within Libya’s difficult context.

The statement made sure to emphasize that it “hopes that the response of the parties coincides with the cessation of hostilities and a reduction in the use of incitement and hate speech.” The UN also signaled directly to the foreign powers that continue to interfere in Libya’s conflict, saying “UNSMIL also hopes that all parties, Libyan and international alike, heed the desire of the Libyans to end the fighting.”

Truce amid escalation

The statement came as many expected Libya’s conflict to enter a new escalation as increased aerial firepower was being introduced to its theater of war. Turkish drones, Russian jet-fighters, and even US brigades in neighboring Tunisia were bound to change the nature of the already chaotic conflict.

The Libyan conflict has repeatedly seen both sides either call for or reject appeals for ceasefires depending on which side was “winning” at the time.

For Libyans the statement comes as a welcome surprise as the conflict has evolved from a civil war to a proxy war between several foreign powers who introduce new weaponry and mercenaries to the country, prolonging a war over which Libyans have long lost control.

Continuing talks

The current potential truce has been made possible by the UN peace process in Libya. Both parties had agreed on many points in the first two rounds of Joint Military Commission talks in February, and the UN now hopes to build on that in the next round of negotiations.

In order for the talks to produce a comprehensive and sustainable conclusion, the UN has asked both sides to empower their representatives and commit to respecting the earlier agreed-upon conclusions of the Berlin Conference in February and UN resolutions. One of the UN resolutions the local mission is most eager to emphasize is the arms embargo that both sides and their foreign backers have repeatedly breached.

The first rounds of talks were concluded in Geneva, but in the interest of time, the next round will be done via videoconference as air travel continues to be restricted due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The statement concluded with the UN mission in Libya expressing hope for a “professional, serious and responsible spirit” to build on the first two rounds of negotiations and hopefully produce sustainable peace in Libya.