Sudan, Egypt Push for Diplomatic Solution to GERD Dispute

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said his country is fully committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the political impasse of the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Saturday, June 20. 

El-Sisi’s latest comments come a day after he called on the UN Security Council to intervene and help restart talks between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, which started on June 9 and stalled again on Wednesday, June 17. 

The $4 billion hydroelectric dam promises to bring untold development opportunities to Ethiopia but is seen as a major threat to human, food, and primarily water security in neighboring and downstream countries Egypt and Sudan. Dam talks failed in February, and there is a renewed focus on the issue since Addis Abba threatened to go ahead with filling the mega-reservoir in July, regardless of whether an agreement can be reached.

“For us, it is not mandatory to reach an agreement before starting filling the dam, hence, we will commence the filling process in the coming rainy season,” Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew said in an interview with the Associated Press (AP News) on June 19.  

“We are working hard to reach a deal, but still we will go ahead with our schedule whatever the outcome is. If we have to wait for others’ blessing, then the dam may remain idle for years, which we won’t allow to happen,” Gebu added.

For Egypt, which receives almost all its fresh water from the Nile, Ethiopia filling the dam before it secures a legal agreement ensuring minimum flows and dispute resolution is a matter of state survival.  

In his Saturday speech, el-Sisi said that referring the issue to the UN Security Council demonstrated Egypt’s goodwill and desire to “pursue diplomacy until the very last chance to resolve the crisis.” The location for the address — an airforce base — and his recent promise to send troops into Libya if the Sirte-Jufra “red-line” is crossed sends a stronger message. 

“We have set a rule for each of us: There should be neither harm nor malice, and I hope the Ethiopian people and their leadership will understand this message,” el-Sisi said.

 The Egyptian president reiterated that all states’ interests needed to be taken into account, but Ethiopia also needs to respect Egypt’s need for “life.”

“We need to move strongly towards concluding the negotiations and reach an agreement … and solutions that achieve the interest of all,” he said. 

Meanwhile, in a separate Saturday night statement, Sudanese Foreign Minister Asma Mohamed Abdalla said “recent rounds of negotiations on the Renaissance Dam have achieved a tangible progress in technical issues.” 

Abdalla said progress achieved during the latest round of negotiations was encouraging, and as a result, she believes the three countries can arrive at a diplomatic solution without external involvement from the UN, as el-Sisi has suggested. She also thanked South Africa, the United States, and the European Union for their roles as observers during multiple rounds of GERD negotiations. 

The Sudanese minister said that despite Wednesday’s progress, there are still differences “on some fundamental legal issues.” As a result, it “necessitated referring the file to the prime ministers of the three countries with the aim to reaching a political consensus that would lead to the resumption and completion of negotiations as soon as possible.”

Read also: Egypt Seeks EU Support to Break Arab-African Balance in GERD Standoff

Daily Nile Dam Negotiations Aim to Resolve Tensions

For almost a decade Ethiopia has been working on the construction of the largest dam in Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Construction has progressed to the point where Ethiopian authorities are preparing to start filling the dam’s giant reservoir, sparking fears of possible water shortages in Sudan and Egypt.

On Monday, June 8, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that Ethiopia is ready to proceed with a partial filling of the reservoir. “The dam is a project that will pull Ethiopia out of poverty,” Ahmed told lawmakers. “Ethiopia wants to develop together with others, not hurt the interests of other countries.”

However, the opinion was not shared in Egypt, a country that relies heavily on water from the Nile river, downstream from the GERD. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi released a statement on Tuesday, June 9, accusing Ethiopia of “a new tactic of stalling and shirking responsibility” and accused the country of stalling negotiations in order to start filling the reservoir.

Washington deal

“It is a hugely important and sensitive issue,” said Mirette Mabrouk, director of the Middle East Institute’s Egypt Studies program. “It’s a matter of life and death for a lot of people, certainly for more than a million Egyptians.”

The escalation of the war of words between Egyptian and Ethiopian leadership comes after Sudan and Egypt held separate meetings on February 24 where the United States, an observer in the negotiations, presented what is now called “the Washington deal.”

The United States Treasury department released a statement saying the US “believes that the work completed over the last four months has resulted in an agreement that addresses all issues in a balanced and equitable manner, taking into account the interests of the three countries,” urging Ethiopia not to commence the filling of the reservoir “without an agreement.”

Tuesday’s meeting

On Tuesday June 9, Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok got Egypt and Ethiopia back to the negotiating table, joined by EU, US, and South African observers. The meeting resulted in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan agreeing to commit to daily meetings in order to ease tensions.

Ministers from the three countries spoke for five hours as Ethiopia claims sovereignty over the Nile water on its territory, while Egypt accuses Ethiopia of violating an agreement signed at the start of construction.

Ethiopia now claims the United States is overstepping its role as a mediating observer by presenting a deal to Ethiopia that was already signed by Egypt, a strategic ally of the US in the region. Sudan appears to accept much of the US proposal, which Ethiopia, in turn, objects to.

Differing opinions

Sudan and Egypt both want a “comprehensive agreement” before Ethiopian authorities start filling the reservoir, as they fear doing so would cause droughts in an already hot and dry year.

Sudan prefers the “Washington deal”, but Ethiopia rejects it because it did not take part in the February negotiations. Ethiopia also disputes the deal’s characterization that negotiations on guidelines and rules for filling the reservoir have been resolved.

For the foreseeable future, Sudanese, Egyptian and Ethiopian negotiators will now hold daily talks, with the exception of Fridays and Sundays, in order to defuse tensions where Ethiopia feels increasingly backed into a corner by powerful foreign actors aligned with Egypt. Sudan and Egypt, meanwhile, fear that the filling of the giant dam’s reservoir could worsen an already poor year for local agriculture and worsen the chance of famine and droughts in the region.