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US Signals Potential Renewed Involvement in Libya

Posted on by webmaster

The United States is considering the deployment of its Security Force Assistance Brigades to Tunisia in response to Russian activity in Libya.

The US has nominally stayed out of the conflict except for some support to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) targeting local forces it considers part of ISIS. The US military appears to be concerned over what it calls “Russian involvement” in the conflict that has seen Egypt, France, Turkey, and the UAE all support factions in the messy civil war.

Increasingly sophisticated weapons

Actors in the Libyan conflict are using increasingly sophisticated weaponry, despite a UN arms embargo that all foreign powers involved in the devastating proxy war nominally support. The recent involvement by Turkish planes and drones turned the tide of the conflict in the Tripoli government’s advantage, which Haftar’s forces are now countering with 14 Russian fighter jets.

The US has published grainy photos of jets taking off in Russia and landing in Libya’s Al Jufra Airbase, while the Libyan National Army (LNA) was less covert, proudly publishing photos of its new jets on twitter.

The inclusion of Russian MiG-29 and Su-24 will likely re-balance the conflict and perhaps draw it out even further, but a new factor has emerged as the US is considering renewed involvement.

Security Force Assistance Brigades

The US Security Force Assistance Brigades are a recent innovation of the US military. The 800-strong brigades first saw deployment in 2018 and consist of a variety of troops that train, support, and fight alongside another nation’s military. Whether the deployment in Tunisia signals increased involvement by Libya’s Western neighbor remains to be seen.

The “S-Fab” troops consist of commissioned and non-commissioned officers that have received additional training at the Military Advisor Training Academy in Fort Benning, Georgia. The s-fab’s are intended to relieve “advisory duties” from the infantry units that have increasingly performed these tasks in Iraq and Afghanistan. S-fabs were deployed in Senegal in 2020 and could soon make their first appearance in North Africa.

Entangled alliances

If the US indeed plans to counter Russian involvement, it would pit itself against its long-standing allies in Egypt, France, and the Emirates. Because of the intertwined alliances in Libya, it could mean that US forces would face incoming French missiles or fight forces supported by its key strategic partners in the Middle East.

The addition of Russian fighter jets is likely to prompt increased aerial support from Turkey. Turkish C-130 planes and drones are already active in the region but Ankara is likely to increase the presence of Turkish F-16 jet-fighters, which are from the same generation as the Russian MiG-29s.

With Turkey announcing that it will soon start to extract oil from Libyan waters, the stakes have never been higher. Libya already featured significant surface-to-air fighting with anti-aircraft batteries fighting drones, but the conflict could soon see it’s first air-to-air combat. This would prove a major escalation and further evidence that the Libyan arms embargo is an abject failure.

UN: Libya Truce Talks Imminent

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A surprise statement by the UN late Monday has signaled that Libya’s warring parties have accepted a resumption of talks to establish a ceasefire. Both the Tripoli government (GNA) and the eastern forces led by Khalifa Haftar (LNA) appear to have agreed to the draft agreement that the UN mission in Libya (UNSMIL) proposed on February 23.

Unexpected ceasefire

The talks will revolve around establishing a sustainable ceasefire agreement but also cover “associated security arrangements,” according to the June 1 statement from the UN mission in Libya.

“UNSMIL emphasizes that the resumption of dialogue constitutes a response by the parties to the desire and calls of the overwhelming majority of Libyans who long for a return to a safe and dignified life as quickly as possible” the statement said. But UNSMIL is remaining cautiously hopeful within Libya’s difficult context.

The statement made sure to emphasize that it “hopes that the response of the parties coincides with the cessation of hostilities and a reduction in the use of incitement and hate speech.” The UN also signaled directly to the foreign powers that continue to interfere in Libya’s conflict, saying “UNSMIL also hopes that all parties, Libyan and international alike, heed the desire of the Libyans to end the fighting.”

Truce amid escalation

The statement came as many expected Libya’s conflict to enter a new escalation as increased aerial firepower was being introduced to its theater of war. Turkish drones, Russian jet-fighters, and even US brigades in neighboring Tunisia were bound to change the nature of the already chaotic conflict.

The Libyan conflict has repeatedly seen both sides either call for or reject appeals for ceasefires depending on which side was “winning” at the time.

For Libyans the statement comes as a welcome surprise as the conflict has evolved from a civil war to a proxy war between several foreign powers who introduce new weaponry and mercenaries to the country, prolonging a war over which Libyans have long lost control.

Continuing talks

The current potential truce has been made possible by the UN peace process in Libya. Both parties had agreed on many points in the first two rounds of Joint Military Commission talks in February, and the UN now hopes to build on that in the next round of negotiations.

In order for the talks to produce a comprehensive and sustainable conclusion, the UN has asked both sides to empower their representatives and commit to respecting the earlier agreed-upon conclusions of the Berlin Conference in February and UN resolutions. One of the UN resolutions the local mission is most eager to emphasize is the arms embargo that both sides and their foreign backers have repeatedly breached.

The first rounds of talks were concluded in Geneva, but in the interest of time, the next round will be done via videoconference as air travel continues to be restricted due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The statement concluded with the UN mission in Libya expressing hope for a “professional, serious and responsible spirit” to build on the first two rounds of negotiations and hopefully produce sustainable peace in Libya.

 

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